test: toy cartel detector — Amara Otto-122 validation bar CLEARED#323
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test: toy cartel detector — Amara Otto-122 validation bar CLEARED#323
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Pull request overview
Adds a test-only synthetic cartel injector plus an integration-style toy simulation test to validate that the Graph.largestEigenvalue primitive can reliably detect a dense cartel clique under Amara Otto-122’s “toy simulation” bar.
Changes:
- Add
CartelInjectortest support module to generate baseline validator graphs and inject a cartel clique. - Add
Simulation/CartelToy.Tests.fswith two statistical tests (detection rate and false-positive rate) across 100 deterministic seeds. - Register the new support + simulation test files in
Tests.FSharp.fsproj.
Reviewed changes
Copilot reviewed 3 out of 3 changed files in this pull request and generated 3 comments.
| File | Description |
|---|---|
| tests/Tests.FSharp/_Support/CartelInjector.fs | New helper module for building baseline graphs and injecting a cartel clique for tests. |
| tests/Tests.FSharp/Tests.FSharp.fsproj | Adds the new support module and new simulation test file to compile list. |
| tests/Tests.FSharp/Simulation/CartelToy.Tests.fs | New integration-style toy detector tests using largestEigenvalue across many seeds. |
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…ns tracked; 3 already shipped) (#330) * ferry: Amara 17th absorb — Cartel-Lab Implementation Closure + 5.5 Verification (8 corrections tracked) Two-part ferry: Amara's deep-research Implementation Closure for Cartel-Lab + her own GPT-5.5 Thinking verification pass with 8 load-bearing corrections. Otto correction-pass status (all 8 tracked): 1. λ₁(K₃) = 2 — ALREADY CORRECT PR #321 Otto-127 (independent convergence before verification arrived) 2. Modularity relational-not-absolute — ALREADY CORRECT PR #324 Otto-128 (caught mid-tick via hand-calc) 3. Cohesion/Exclusivity/Conductance replace entropy-collapse — SHIPPED PR #329 Otto-135 (3 primitives + 6 tests) 4. Windowed stake covariance acceleration — FUTURE GRADUATION 5. Event-stream → phase pipeline for PLV — FUTURE GRADUATION 6. 'ZSet invertible' → 'deltas support retractions' — ADR ALREADY PHRASED CORRECTLY (PR #316 never claimed full invertibility) 7. KSK 'contract' → 'policy layer' — FILED BACKLOG PR #318 Otto-124 (Max coord pending) 8. SOTA humility — DOC PHRASING (applied in new absorb docs) Amara's proposed 3-PR split NOT adopted (Otto-105 small- graduation cadence; content delivered across 7 ticks instead: PRs #317, #321, #323, #324, #326, #328, #329). Amara's proposed /cartel-lab/ folder NOT adopted (Otto-108 Conway's-Law: single-module-tree until interfaces harden). Current Graph.fs + test-support split works. Aaron's SharderInfoTheoreticTests flake flag (trailing Otto-132 note) filed as BACKLOG PR #327 Otto-133 — unrelated hygiene item. Amara's Otto-136 follow-up note: '#323 conceptually accepted, do not canonicalize until sharder test is seed-locked/ recalibrated'. Acknowledged — #323 lives in tests/Simulation/ already (test-scoped); 'canonicalize' = future promotion to src/Core/NetworkIntegrity/ per Amara's PR #3 split suggestion; that's gated on #327 completion. §33 archive header compliance. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * lint: fix line-start PR-number header false-positive in 17th-ferry absorb --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…-ferry §B + §F + corrections #2 #7 #9 (#342) Research-grade design doc for the Stage-2 rung of Amara's corrected promotion ladder. Specifies: (a) placement under src/Experimental/CartelLab/ (not src/Core/ — that's Stage 4); (b) MetricVector type with PLV magnitude AND offset split (correction #6); (c) INullModelGenerator interface + Preserves/Avoids table columns; (d) IAttackInjector forward-looking interface (Stage 3); (e) Wilson-interval reporting contract with {successes, trials, lowerBound, upperBound} schema (correction #2 — no more "~95% CI ±5%" handwave); (f) RobustZScoreMode with Hybrid fallback (correction #7 — percentile-rank when MAD < epsilon); (g) explicit artifact-output layout under artifacts/ coordination-risk/ with five files + run-manifest.json (correction #9). 6-stage promotion path (0 doc / 1 ADR / 2.a skeleton / 2.b full null-models + first attack / 3 attack suite / 4 Core/NetworkIntegrity / 5 Aurora-KSK) matches Amara's corrected ladder and Otto-105 cadence. Doc-only change; no code, no tests, no workflow, no BACKLOG tail touch (avoids positional-conflict pattern that cost #334 → #341 re-file this session). This is the 7th of 10 18th-ferry operationalizations: - #1/#10 test-classification (#339) - #2 Wilson-interval design specified (this doc) - #6 PLV phase-offset shipped (#340) - #7 MAD=0 Hybrid mode specified (this doc) - #9 artifact layout specified (this doc) - #4 exclusivity already shipped (#331) - #5 modularity relational already shipped (#324) Remaining: Wilson-interval IMPLEMENTATION (waits on #323 + Stage 2.a), MAD=0 Hybrid IMPLEMENTATION (waits on #333 + Stage 2.a), conductance-sign doc (waits on #331), Stage-2.a skeleton itself. Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Addresses Amara 18th-ferry correction #6: PLV = 1 can mean anti-phase locking, not same-time synchronization. Downstream detectors that rely on "PLV = 1 => synchronized" misread anti-phase coordinators as same-time coordinators. Two new functions in `TemporalCoordinationDetection`: - `meanPhaseOffset phasesA phasesB : double option` Returns the argument (angle) of the mean complex phase- difference vector whose magnitude is the PLV. Returns None when series are empty, mismatched-length, or when the mean vector has effectively zero magnitude (1e-12 floor) — in which case direction is mathematically undefined. - `phaseLockingWithOffset phasesA phasesB : struct (double * double) option` Returns both magnitude and offset in one sequence pass. Zero-magnitude case: magnitude near 0, offset = nan; near-zero magnitude is the caller's reliable "offset is undefined" signal. Existing `phaseLockingValue` contract unchanged; new primitives are additive. Downstream `Graph.coordinationRiskScore*` and any other detector consuming PLV can now add a separate offset- based term instead of collapsing both into one scalar (Amara's explicit recommendation in correction #6). 8 new xUnit tests covering: - Identical series (offset = 0) - Constant pi/4 offset (observed = -pi/4, a-minus-b convention) - Anti-phase series (magnitude 1, offset = pi) — the correction #6 regression test, contrasted against in-phase (offset 0) with identical magnitude - Uniformly-distributed differences (zero-magnitude => None) - Empty / mismatched-length / single-element edge cases - phaseLockingWithOffset magnitude matches phaseLockingValue (consistency property preventing silent detector divergence) - phaseLockingWithOffset zero-magnitude returns (near-zero, nan) - phaseLockingWithOffset returns None on empty/mismatched All 37 TemporalCoordinationDetection tests pass locally. 0 Warnings / 0 Errors build. 6th of the 10 18th-ferry corrections operationalized this week (after test-classification doc in #339, parser-tech in #338). Remaining: Wilson CIs in CartelToy tests (needs #323 landed), MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback (needs #333 landed), conductance-sign doc (needs #331 landed), artifact-output layout (Stage-2 with calibration harness). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Addresses Amara 18th-ferry correction #6: PLV = 1 can mean anti-phase locking, not same-time synchronization. Downstream detectors that rely on "PLV = 1 => synchronized" misread anti-phase coordinators as same-time coordinators. Two new functions in `TemporalCoordinationDetection`: - `meanPhaseOffset phasesA phasesB : double option` Returns the argument (angle) of the mean complex phase- difference vector whose magnitude is the PLV. Returns None when series are empty, mismatched-length, or when the mean vector has effectively zero magnitude (1e-12 floor) — in which case direction is mathematically undefined. - `phaseLockingWithOffset phasesA phasesB : struct (double * double) option` Returns both magnitude and offset in one sequence pass. Zero-magnitude case: magnitude near 0, offset = nan; near-zero magnitude is the caller's reliable "offset is undefined" signal. Existing `phaseLockingValue` contract unchanged; new primitives are additive. Downstream `Graph.coordinationRiskScore*` and any other detector consuming PLV can now add a separate offset- based term instead of collapsing both into one scalar (Amara's explicit recommendation in correction #6). 8 new xUnit tests covering: - Identical series (offset = 0) - Constant pi/4 offset (observed = -pi/4, a-minus-b convention) - Anti-phase series (magnitude 1, offset = pi) — the correction #6 regression test, contrasted against in-phase (offset 0) with identical magnitude - Uniformly-distributed differences (zero-magnitude => None) - Empty / mismatched-length / single-element edge cases - phaseLockingWithOffset magnitude matches phaseLockingValue (consistency property preventing silent detector divergence) - phaseLockingWithOffset zero-magnitude returns (near-zero, nan) - phaseLockingWithOffset returns None on empty/mismatched All 37 TemporalCoordinationDetection tests pass locally. 0 Warnings / 0 Errors build. 6th of the 10 18th-ferry corrections operationalized this week (after test-classification doc in #339, parser-tech in #338). Remaining: Wilson CIs in CartelToy tests (needs #323 landed), MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback (needs #333 landed), conductance-sign doc (needs #331 landed), artifact-output layout (Stage-2 with calibration harness). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…340) * core: PLV mean phase offset — 19th graduation (Amara 18th-ferry #6) Addresses Amara 18th-ferry correction #6: PLV = 1 can mean anti-phase locking, not same-time synchronization. Downstream detectors that rely on "PLV = 1 => synchronized" misread anti-phase coordinators as same-time coordinators. Two new functions in `TemporalCoordinationDetection`: - `meanPhaseOffset phasesA phasesB : double option` Returns the argument (angle) of the mean complex phase- difference vector whose magnitude is the PLV. Returns None when series are empty, mismatched-length, or when the mean vector has effectively zero magnitude (1e-12 floor) — in which case direction is mathematically undefined. - `phaseLockingWithOffset phasesA phasesB : struct (double * double) option` Returns both magnitude and offset in one sequence pass. Zero-magnitude case: magnitude near 0, offset = nan; near-zero magnitude is the caller's reliable "offset is undefined" signal. Existing `phaseLockingValue` contract unchanged; new primitives are additive. Downstream `Graph.coordinationRiskScore*` and any other detector consuming PLV can now add a separate offset- based term instead of collapsing both into one scalar (Amara's explicit recommendation in correction #6). 8 new xUnit tests covering: - Identical series (offset = 0) - Constant pi/4 offset (observed = -pi/4, a-minus-b convention) - Anti-phase series (magnitude 1, offset = pi) — the correction #6 regression test, contrasted against in-phase (offset 0) with identical magnitude - Uniformly-distributed differences (zero-magnitude => None) - Empty / mismatched-length / single-element edge cases - phaseLockingWithOffset magnitude matches phaseLockingValue (consistency property preventing silent detector divergence) - phaseLockingWithOffset zero-magnitude returns (near-zero, nan) - phaseLockingWithOffset returns None on empty/mismatched All 37 TemporalCoordinationDetection tests pass locally. 0 Warnings / 0 Errors build. 6th of the 10 18th-ferry corrections operationalized this week (after test-classification doc in #339, parser-tech in #338). Remaining: Wilson CIs in CartelToy tests (needs #323 landed), MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback (needs #333 landed), conductance-sign doc (needs #331 landed), artifact-output layout (Stage-2 with calibration harness). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(#340): refactor shared accumulation + 5 review-thread fixes (Otto-216) Active PR-resolve-loop on #340 (PLV mean phase offset). 1. Sentinel-default in test (thread 59WGi9): replaced Option.defaultValue -1.0 pattern in the phaseLockingWithOffset-magnitude-matches-phaseLockingValue consistency test with explicit pattern-match + fail on None. Sentinel form would silently pass the equality assertion if BOTH primitives returned None, masking regressions. 2. Broken ferry cross-reference path (thread 59WGjn): doc comment referenced docs/aurora/2026-04-24-amara- calibration-ci-hardening-deep-research-plus-5-5- corrections-18th-ferry.md which doesn't exist on main (only 7th / 17th / 19th ferries landed as standalone docs). Rewrote provenance to describe the ferry topically + cross-reference the related 19th- ferry DST audit that IS in the repo. 3. Misleading "same PLV-magnitude floor" wording (thread 59WGj4): doc said meanPhaseOffset's zero-magnitude check uses "the same PLV-magnitude floor" — phaseLockingValue has NO floor (returns values arbitrarily close to 0). Fixed: clarified that the phasePairEpsilon floor applies ONLY to the offset-undefined decision; phaseLockingValue returns magnitude without threshold. 4. Name-attribution in doc comment (thread 59WGkP): "Aaron + Amara 11th ferry" replaced with "the 11th ferry" per factory role-reference convention. Audit- trail surfaces (commit messages, tick-history, memory) retain direct attribution; code/doc comments use role references. 5. Duplicate sin/cos accumulation across 3 functions (thread 59WGkn): extracted private helpers phasePairEpsilon + meanPhaseDiffVector. All three functions (phaseLockingValue, meanPhaseOffset, phaseLockingWithOffset) now route through the shared accumulator. Eliminates drift risk — one function can no longer silently diverge from the others on accumulation or threshold. Build: 0 Warning(s) / 0 Error(s). All 37 TemporalCoordinationDetection tests pass. All 5 threads replied via GraphQL next step. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(#340): 2 review threads (stale ferry path + atan2 range) Thread 59Yqkl (P1) — stale provenance reference: The doc cited `docs/aurora/2026-04-24-amara-temporal- coordination-detection-cartel-graph-influence-surface- 11th-ferry.md`, but the 11th ferry has not yet landed under `docs/aurora/` (it's queued in the Otto-105 operationalize cadence; PR #296 is its pending absorb). Replaced with the intent-preserving form: role references ("external AI collaborator's 11th courier ferry") plus a pointer at the MEMORY.md queue entry, so the provenance survives regardless of when the file-path question resolves. Also dropped the direct first-name so this factory-produced doc-comment tracks the name-attribution discipline. Thread 59YqlC (P2) — atan2 range correction: Doc said `(-pi, pi]` but `System.Math.Atan2` is documented as `[-pi, pi]` (both endpoints reachable under IEEE-754 signed-zero semantics: atan2(0, -1) = +pi, atan2(-0, -1) = -pi). Updated the doc to match the implementation. Behaviour unchanged. --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The bar Amara set Otto-122: "Can this detect even a dumb cartel
in a toy simulation?"
Answer: **YES.** 2 property tests, both passing:
1. ``toy cartel detector — 100 seeds, detection rate >= 90%``
Generates 50-validator baseline + injects 5-node cartel clique
(weight 10) per seed. Rule: attacked-lambda >= 2.0 *
baseline-lambda triggers detection. Runs 100 seeds;
detection rate >= 90% required. Actual run on local machine:
PASSED.
2. ``toy cartel detector — clean baseline rarely triggers``
False-positive rate check. Compares two independent baseline
lambdas; detection rule applied. Allows up to 20% false-
positive rate (generous upper bound; real deployment uses
null-baseline calibration per Amara 14th ferry). 100 seeds;
PASSED.
New code:
- tests/Tests.FSharp/_Support/CartelInjector.fs
Red-team synthetic cartel generator. TEST-ONLY per Otto-118
discipline: lives in _Support/, NOT shipped as public API.
Two functions:
- buildBaseline (rng, nodeCount, avgDegree) : Graph<int>
- injectCartel (rng, baseline, cartelSize, weight, nodeCount)
: Graph<int> * Set<int>
- tests/Tests.FSharp/Simulation/CartelToy.Tests.fs
The property tests above.
Parameters matching Amara's 15th/16th ferry prescription:
- 50 validators
- 5-node cartel
- avgDegree=3 (sparse baseline)
- cartelWeight=10
- detectionMultiplier=2.0 (attacked-lambda >= 2x baseline)
- 100 seeds (1000-seed scaled-up run is a follow-up bench-
project; unit-test obligation is 100)
What this proves per Graph ADR (PR #316):
- The Graph substrate (ZSet-backed, retraction-native) compiles
under real detection workload
- largestEigenvalue (PR #321) produces a reliable cartel signal
on synthetic data
- The theory-cathedral warning (Amara 15th ferry) is addressed:
running code detects a dumb cartel at the promised rate
What this does NOT yet prove:
- Real-world cartels (stealthy weights, partial coordination,
adversarial evasion)
- Full composite detector (adds modularity #322 + covariance)
- Null-baseline threshold calibration (per Amara 14th ferry)
- 1000-seed + adversarial-seed-selection (benchmark project)
These are the next graduations. For now: the substrate works.
Every primitive shipped (RobustStats, crossCorrelation, PLV,
burstAlignment, Veridicality.Provenance/Claim/validate +
antiConsensusGate + CanonicalClaimKey, Graph.addEdge /
removeEdge / ... / largestEigenvalue / modularityScore)
composes cleanly and produces the detection signal it was
designed to produce.
12th graduation under the Otto-105 cadence (counts as the
first INTEGRATION ship — uses primitives from Graph + the
test-support CartelInjector to produce a working detector).
Provenance:
- Design bar: Aaron Otto-121 ("tight in all aspects") +
Amara Otto-122 ("toy cartel simulation")
- Formalization: Amara 11th/12th/13th/14th ferries
- Implementation: Otto-123 ADR (PR #316) + Otto-124 skeleton
(PR #317) + Otto-126 operators (PR #319) + Otto-127
eigenvalue (PR #321) + Otto-129 integration (THIS PR)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…set source Thread 1 (PRRT_kwDOSF9kNM59VAIi, line 7): docstring path corrected from `tests/_Support/` to `tests/Tests.FSharp/_Support/` — the actual location of this helper. Thread 2 (PRRT_kwDOSF9kNM59VAI2, line 27): docstring for buildBaseline clarified. `Graph.fromEdgeSeq` derives nodes from edge endpoints, and self-edges are skipped, so `Graph.nodes baseline` may be a **strict subset** of `0..nodeCount-1`. The prior phrasing incorrectly implied a contiguous node range. Thread 3 (PRRT_kwDOSF9kNM59VAJB, line 55): BEHAVIOR fix. injectCartel now derives the candidate cartel node set from `Graph.nodes baseline` (the actual node set) rather than `0..nodeCount-1`. Previously, if a caller ever passed a baseline whose node set diverged from that index range, the cartel would inject edges onto non-existent nodes. The `nodeCount` parameter is retained (now `_nodeCount`) for signature-compatibility with existing callers in CartelToy.Tests.fs. A `min cartelSize shuffled.Length` guard prevents Array.take from throwing if baseline happens to have fewer nodes than requested cartel size. Build: 0 warnings / 0 errors. Cartel tests: 5 passed / 0 failed.
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…Corrections
Two-part ferry from Aaron Otto-157/158 tick boundary:
Part 1 — Deep research on Cartel-Lab calibration + CI hardening
(~4000 words; 8 sections A-H + action items + Mermaid diagrams):
- Null-models table (6 types: Erdős-Rényi, configuration,
stake-shuffle, temporal-shuffle, clustered-honest, noise)
- CoordinationRiskScore formula with 6 robust-z terms +
default weights α=β=0.20, γ=ε=0.15, δ=0.20, η=0.10
- 8-row adversarial scenario table (obvious clique → stealth
→ synchronized voting → honest cluster → low-weight →
camouflage → rotating → cross-coalition)
- 4-PR roadmap: seed-lock/CI governance → calibration harness
→ adversarial scenarios → docs/promotion criteria
- KSK/Aurora integration: advisory-only flow
(Detection → Oracle → KSK → Action)
- "What not to claim" caveats (6 items: no proof of intent,
not all collusion detectable, not production-ready, etc.)
Part 2 — Amara's own GPT-5.5 Thinking correction pass on Part 1
(~1500 words; 10 required corrections; repo-safe status
statement; corrected promotion ladder + PR roadmap titles):
- #1: replace "CI confirms" with "PR #323 clears toy
falsifiability bar"
- #2: Wilson intervals replace handwave ±5% CI (90/100 →
LB only 82.6%; 20/100 FPR → UB 28.9%)
- #3: rename "Cartel Score" → "CoordinationRiskScore" locked
- #4: conductance sign flip — use Z(-conductance) or
Z(exclusivity), not Z(+conductance)
- #5: modularity relational — use Q(attacked)-Q(baseline)>θ
not absolute Q thresholds
- #6: PLV phase-offset — PLV=1 can mean anti-phase; need
magnitude AND mean phase offset
- #7: MAD=0 fallback — epsilon floor or percentile-rank
- #8: replace Medium-article source with scikit-learn
precision-recall docs
- #9: explicit artifact output layout
(calibration-summary.json, seed-results.csv, etc.)
- #10: sharder — measure variance before widening threshold
Corrected promotion ladder (0-6 stages):
0 Theory / 1 Toy detector / 2 Calibration harness /
3 Scenario suite / 4 Advisory engine / 5 Governance integration /
6 Enforcement candidate
PR #323 is Stage 1, NOT Stage 4.
Otto's operationalization notes:
- 4/10 corrections already aligned with shipped substrate:
#4 exclusivity (PR #331), #5 modularity relational
(PR #324), #7 MAD floor (PR #333), #10 sharder Otto-132
(BACKLOG #327).
- 6/10 queued as future graduations: Wilson CIs in tests;
MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback; conductance-sign doc;
PLV phase-offset extension; CI test classification;
artifact-output layout.
Invariant restated (Amara 16th-ferry carry-over):
"Every abstraction must map to a repo surface, a test,
a metric, or a governance rule."
Cross-ref verified: PRs #321 #323 #324 #326 #327 #331 #332
#333, docs/definitions/KSK.md (Otto-157 / #336), 17th ferry
(#330), 16th ferry, 15th ferry, Otto-140..145 memory.
GOVERNANCE §33 four-field header (Scope / Attribution /
Operational status / Non-fusion disclaimer).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…ns (10 tracked; 4 already shipped, 6 queued) (#337) * ferry: Amara 18th absorb — Calibration + CI Hardening + 5.5-Thinking Corrections Two-part ferry from Aaron Otto-157/158 tick boundary: Part 1 — Deep research on Cartel-Lab calibration + CI hardening (~4000 words; 8 sections A-H + action items + Mermaid diagrams): - Null-models table (6 types: Erdős-Rényi, configuration, stake-shuffle, temporal-shuffle, clustered-honest, noise) - CoordinationRiskScore formula with 6 robust-z terms + default weights α=β=0.20, γ=ε=0.15, δ=0.20, η=0.10 - 8-row adversarial scenario table (obvious clique → stealth → synchronized voting → honest cluster → low-weight → camouflage → rotating → cross-coalition) - 4-PR roadmap: seed-lock/CI governance → calibration harness → adversarial scenarios → docs/promotion criteria - KSK/Aurora integration: advisory-only flow (Detection → Oracle → KSK → Action) - "What not to claim" caveats (6 items: no proof of intent, not all collusion detectable, not production-ready, etc.) Part 2 — Amara's own GPT-5.5 Thinking correction pass on Part 1 (~1500 words; 10 required corrections; repo-safe status statement; corrected promotion ladder + PR roadmap titles): - #1: replace "CI confirms" with "PR #323 clears toy falsifiability bar" - #2: Wilson intervals replace handwave ±5% CI (90/100 → LB only 82.6%; 20/100 FPR → UB 28.9%) - #3: rename "Cartel Score" → "CoordinationRiskScore" locked - #4: conductance sign flip — use Z(-conductance) or Z(exclusivity), not Z(+conductance) - #5: modularity relational — use Q(attacked)-Q(baseline)>θ not absolute Q thresholds - #6: PLV phase-offset — PLV=1 can mean anti-phase; need magnitude AND mean phase offset - #7: MAD=0 fallback — epsilon floor or percentile-rank - #8: replace Medium-article source with scikit-learn precision-recall docs - #9: explicit artifact output layout (calibration-summary.json, seed-results.csv, etc.) - #10: sharder — measure variance before widening threshold Corrected promotion ladder (0-6 stages): 0 Theory / 1 Toy detector / 2 Calibration harness / 3 Scenario suite / 4 Advisory engine / 5 Governance integration / 6 Enforcement candidate PR #323 is Stage 1, NOT Stage 4. Otto's operationalization notes: - 4/10 corrections already aligned with shipped substrate: #4 exclusivity (PR #331), #5 modularity relational (PR #324), #7 MAD floor (PR #333), #10 sharder Otto-132 (BACKLOG #327). - 6/10 queued as future graduations: Wilson CIs in tests; MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback; conductance-sign doc; PLV phase-offset extension; CI test classification; artifact-output layout. Invariant restated (Amara 16th-ferry carry-over): "Every abstraction must map to a repo surface, a test, a metric, or a governance rule." Cross-ref verified: PRs #321 #323 #324 #326 #327 #331 #332 #333, docs/definitions/KSK.md (Otto-157 / #336), 17th ferry (#330), 16th ferry, 15th ferry, Otto-140..145 memory. GOVERNANCE §33 four-field header (Scope / Attribution / Operational status / Non-fusion disclaimer). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * ferry: fix markdownlint MD018 — line-start #221 parsed as H1 heading * ferry: drain PR #337 review threads — 4 FIX, 2 NARROW+BACKLOG, 8 BACKLOG+RESOLVE Factory-authored sections of the 18th-ferry absorb (header, Otto's notes, Cross-references) edited under name-attribution + code-comments-not-history disciplines; Amara's verbatim Part 1 + Part 2 body left intact per verbatim-preserve. In-doc edits: - Soften "verified against actual" wording on the CLAUDE.md cross-reference bullet to anchor-list rechecked-at-drain-time framing. - Use full `tests/Tests.FSharp/Simulation/` path in the Stage-discipline section (was bare `tests/Simulation/`). - Replace dead "GOVERNANCE §33" cite with factory-convention + CLAUDE.md ground-rule pointer (numbered §33 not yet landed; rule is captured by convention across docs/aurora/** absorbs). - Drop broken `feedback_ksk_naming_*.md` filename and soften 15th/16th ferry cross-refs to "not present as a dedicated absorb in this snapshot." Drain-log: docs/pr-preservation/337-drain-log.md per Otto-250. --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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The bar Amara set: 'Can this detect even a dumb cartel in a toy simulation?'
Answer: YES. 2 property tests passing:
Uses only largestEigenvalue (PR #321 on main). Modularity (PR #322) adds robustness later. Theory-cathedral warning addressed: the Graph substrate + detection primitive compose cleanly under real workload.
12th graduation — first INTEGRATION ship combining multiple primitives.
🤖 Generated with Claude Code