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ferry: Amara 18th absorb — Calibration + CI Hardening + 5.5 Corrections (10 tracked; 4 already shipped, 6 queued)#337

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ferry/amara-18th-calibration-ci-hardening
Apr 24, 2026
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ferry: Amara 18th absorb — Calibration + CI Hardening + 5.5 Corrections (10 tracked; 4 already shipped, 6 queued)#337
AceHack merged 3 commits intomainfrom
ferry/amara-18th-calibration-ci-hardening

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@AceHack AceHack commented Apr 24, 2026

Summary

Dedicated absorb of Amara's 18th courier ferry per CC-002 close-on-existing discipline. Scheduled Otto-157 → executed Otto-158 (this tick), following 17-ferry precedent (PRs #196 / #211 / #219 / #221 / #235 / #245 / #259 / #330).

Two-part ferry: deep research + Amara's 5.5-thinking correction pass on her own draft.

Absorb highlights

  • GOVERNANCE §33 four-field header (Scope / Attribution / Operational status / Non-fusion disclaimer)
  • Part 1 verbatim preserved (deep research on calibration + CI hardening)
  • Part 2 verbatim preserved (5.5 corrections — 10 numbered items)
  • Otto's operationalization notes with stage-discipline table
  • Cross-reference list verified per verify-before-deferring

Key outcomes

Correction alignment (4 of 10 already shipped):

Queued as future graduations (6 of 10):

  1. Wilson confidence intervals in CartelToy tests (S)
  2. MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback in robustZScore (S)
  3. Conductance-sign doc (S)
  4. PLV phase-offset extension (M)
  5. CI test classification discipline (S-M)
  6. Artifact-output layout for calibration harness (M)

Stage discipline

Corrected promotion ladder: 0 Theory / 1 Toy detector / 2 Calibration harness / 3 Scenario suite / 4 Advisory engine / 5 Governance integration / 6 Enforcement candidate.

PR #323 is Stage 1, not Stage 4. No canonicalization to src/Core/NetworkIntegrity/ until Stage 4 evidence (calibrated thresholds + FP/FN bounds + Wilson intervals + null models + scenarios). Aaron Otto-136 + Amara 18th-ferry both gate this.

KSK alignment

Ferry §G advisory-only flow (Detection → Oracle → KSK → Action) composes cleanly with docs/definitions/KSK.md (Otto-157 / PR #336). No conflict.

Invariant reaffirmed

"Every abstraction must map to a repo surface, a test, a metric, or a governance rule."

All six queued corrections map to one of those four targets (table in absorb doc).

Test plan

  • Single new file; no code surface changed.
  • §33 header present; verbatim preservation for both parts.
  • Markdownlint pass on CI.
  • Invisible-unicode lint pass on CI.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings April 24, 2026 08:46
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Pull request overview

Adds a new Aurora absorb document capturing Amara’s 18th courier ferry (calibration + CI hardening research plus a 5.5 correction pass), intended as research-grade context and a tracker for queued follow-up graduations.

Changes:

  • Added a new docs/aurora/ absorb markdown file with the four-field archive header, Part 1/Part 2 verbatim sections, and an operationalization notes section.
  • Included cross-references to prior ferries, related PRs, and intended future graduations.

AceHack added a commit that referenced this pull request Apr 24, 2026
…rections (#344)

Dedicated absorb of Amara's 19th courier ferry per CC-002
close-on-existing discipline. Scheduled Otto-164 → executed
Otto-165, following 7-ferry precedent (PRs #196 / #211 /
#219 / #221 / #235 / #245 / #259 / #330 / #337).

Two-part ferry: Part 1 deep-research DST audit (12
sections: rulebook, 12-row entropy scan, dependency audit,
7-row simulation-surface coverage, retry audit, CI
determinism, seed discipline, Cartel-Lab DST readiness,
KSK/Aurora DST readiness, state-of-the-art comparison,
10-row PR roadmap, what-not-to-claim caveats; Mermaid CI
diagram + Gantt timeline). Part 2 Amara's own 5.5-Thinking
correction pass (7 required corrections, per-area grade
table with B- overall, revised 6-PR roadmap with titles
locked, DST-held + FoundationDB-grade acceptance criteria,
copy-paste Kenji summary).

Key findings:
- DST grade: B- (strong architecture, partial impl)
- Blockers: DiskBackingStore bypasses simulation (D-grade
  filesystem simulation), no ISimulationDriver, Task.Run
  ambient ThreadPool risk, no seed artifacts / no swarm
  harness
- 4 of 12 Part-1 sections already align with shipped
  substrate:
  - §6 test classification → PR #339
  - §7 artifact layout → PR #342 design
  - §8 Cartel-Lab stage discipline → PRs #330/#337/#342
  - §9 KSK advisory-only → PR #336 + Otto-140..145 memory

6-PR revised roadmap queued as graduation candidates:
1. DST scanner + accepted-boundary registry (new tool +
   policy docs + workflow)
2. Seed protocol + CI artifacts
3. Sharder reproduction (NOT widen) — reinforces 18th #10
4. ISimulationDriver + VTS promotion to core
5. Simulated filesystem (DiskBackingStore rewrite)
6. Cartel-Lab DST calibration (aligns with #342 design)

Plus: push-with-retry.sh retry-audit finding; DST-held +
FDB-grade criteria lock.

GOVERNANCE §33 four-field header (Scope / Attribution /
Operational status / Non-fusion disclaimer). Amara verdict
preserved: "strong draft / not canonical yet."

Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings April 24, 2026 09:48
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Pull request overview

Copilot reviewed 1 out of 1 changed files in this pull request and generated 2 comments.

AceHack and others added 3 commits April 24, 2026 19:20
…Corrections

Two-part ferry from Aaron Otto-157/158 tick boundary:

Part 1 — Deep research on Cartel-Lab calibration + CI hardening
  (~4000 words; 8 sections A-H + action items + Mermaid diagrams):
  - Null-models table (6 types: Erdős-Rényi, configuration,
    stake-shuffle, temporal-shuffle, clustered-honest, noise)
  - CoordinationRiskScore formula with 6 robust-z terms +
    default weights α=β=0.20, γ=ε=0.15, δ=0.20, η=0.10
  - 8-row adversarial scenario table (obvious clique → stealth
    → synchronized voting → honest cluster → low-weight →
    camouflage → rotating → cross-coalition)
  - 4-PR roadmap: seed-lock/CI governance → calibration harness
    → adversarial scenarios → docs/promotion criteria
  - KSK/Aurora integration: advisory-only flow
    (Detection → Oracle → KSK → Action)
  - "What not to claim" caveats (6 items: no proof of intent,
    not all collusion detectable, not production-ready, etc.)

Part 2 — Amara's own GPT-5.5 Thinking correction pass on Part 1
  (~1500 words; 10 required corrections; repo-safe status
  statement; corrected promotion ladder + PR roadmap titles):
  - #1: replace "CI confirms" with "PR #323 clears toy
    falsifiability bar"
  - #2: Wilson intervals replace handwave ±5% CI (90/100 →
    LB only 82.6%; 20/100 FPR → UB 28.9%)
  - #3: rename "Cartel Score" → "CoordinationRiskScore" locked
  - #4: conductance sign flip — use Z(-conductance) or
    Z(exclusivity), not Z(+conductance)
  - #5: modularity relational — use Q(attacked)-Q(baseline)>θ
    not absolute Q thresholds
  - #6: PLV phase-offset — PLV=1 can mean anti-phase; need
    magnitude AND mean phase offset
  - #7: MAD=0 fallback — epsilon floor or percentile-rank
  - #8: replace Medium-article source with scikit-learn
    precision-recall docs
  - #9: explicit artifact output layout
    (calibration-summary.json, seed-results.csv, etc.)
  - #10: sharder — measure variance before widening threshold

Corrected promotion ladder (0-6 stages):
  0 Theory / 1 Toy detector / 2 Calibration harness /
  3 Scenario suite / 4 Advisory engine / 5 Governance integration /
  6 Enforcement candidate

PR #323 is Stage 1, NOT Stage 4.

Otto's operationalization notes:
- 4/10 corrections already aligned with shipped substrate:
  #4 exclusivity (PR #331), #5 modularity relational
  (PR #324), #7 MAD floor (PR #333), #10 sharder Otto-132
  (BACKLOG #327).
- 6/10 queued as future graduations: Wilson CIs in tests;
  MAD=0 percentile-rank fallback; conductance-sign doc;
  PLV phase-offset extension; CI test classification;
  artifact-output layout.

Invariant restated (Amara 16th-ferry carry-over):
  "Every abstraction must map to a repo surface, a test,
   a metric, or a governance rule."

Cross-ref verified: PRs #321 #323 #324 #326 #327 #331 #332
#333, docs/definitions/KSK.md (Otto-157 / #336), 17th ferry
(#330), 16th ferry, 15th ferry, Otto-140..145 memory.

GOVERNANCE §33 four-field header (Scope / Attribution /
Operational status / Non-fusion disclaimer).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…LOG+RESOLVE

Factory-authored sections of the 18th-ferry absorb (header,
Otto's notes, Cross-references) edited under name-attribution
+ code-comments-not-history disciplines; Amara's verbatim
Part 1 + Part 2 body left intact per verbatim-preserve.

In-doc edits:
- Soften "verified against actual" wording on the
  CLAUDE.md cross-reference bullet to anchor-list
  rechecked-at-drain-time framing.
- Use full `tests/Tests.FSharp/Simulation/` path in the
  Stage-discipline section (was bare `tests/Simulation/`).
- Replace dead "GOVERNANCE §33" cite with
  factory-convention + CLAUDE.md ground-rule pointer
  (numbered §33 not yet landed; rule is captured
  by convention across docs/aurora/** absorbs).
- Drop broken `feedback_ksk_naming_*.md` filename and
  soften 15th/16th ferry cross-refs to "not present as a
  dedicated absorb in this snapshot."

Drain-log: docs/pr-preservation/337-drain-log.md per
Otto-250.
@AceHack AceHack force-pushed the ferry/amara-18th-calibration-ci-hardening branch from 5674435 to 5fac762 Compare April 24, 2026 23:26
@AceHack AceHack merged commit 134a68d into main Apr 24, 2026
21 of 22 checks passed
@AceHack AceHack deleted the ferry/amara-18th-calibration-ci-hardening branch April 24, 2026 23:44
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