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5 changes: 2 additions & 3 deletions CHANGELOG.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -33,9 +33,8 @@ ships both.
`docs/formal_specification.md`. Explains why a point risk score is
not enough, what the interval gives a reader, and how the
distribution-free coverage guarantee maps to Article 15(1)
("appropriate level of accuracy") and Recital 133 (detection of
non-conformities). Cross-linked from the README "Where things live"
table and from `VERDICTS.md` Article 15(1) discussion.
("appropriate level of accuracy"). Cross-linked from the README
"Where things live" table.

### Changed
- `COMPLIANCE.md` "EU AI Act Article Mapping" intro now points readers
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12 changes: 4 additions & 8 deletions docs/conformal-prediction.md
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Expand Up @@ -52,8 +52,6 @@ makes the difference visible.

## Why this matters under the EU AI Act

Two parts of the AI Act point at this directly.

**Article 15(1)** requires high-risk AI systems to "be designed and
developed in such a way that they achieve an appropriate level of
accuracy, robustness and cybersecurity, and perform consistently in
Expand All @@ -65,12 +63,10 @@ deployer can publish the guarantee (e.g. "the interval covers the true
risk at least 90% of the time") and an auditor can check it against
observed outcomes.

**Recital 133** discusses the detection of "violations or
non-conformities" by AI systems and the need to "regularly verify the
results obtained." A point estimate does not surface non-conformity
until after the fact. An interval that widens or narrows is itself a
real-time signal that the model is moving into or out of a region
where its predictions are trustworthy.
A widening interval is itself a real-time signal that the model is
moving into a region where its predictions cannot be trusted. A point
estimate does not surface that drift until ground-truth labels arrive
and the error rate is reconstructed after the fact.

In short: a conformal interval converts "trust me, the score is 0.6"
into "the score is 0.6, here is the range we expect to be in, here is
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