evidence(OMN-15232): re-land falsifiable content probes displaced by the autobind companion

[jonahgabriel]

What

Re-lands the falsifiable content-probe evidence for OMN-15232 that was displaced when the OCC autobind producer opened a competing companion.

Single net-new evidence file: docs/evidence/OMN-15232/falsifiable-content-probes-2026-07-27.md. Codex landing repair appends occ-self-bind-pr-5129 to contracts/OMN-15232.yaml plus a matching PASS receipt so OCC eligibility can bind this evidence-supplement PR.

Why

The companion that landed for OMN-15232 (OCC#5118, autobind-authored) carries only PR-existence checks:

gh pr view ${PR_NUMBER} --repo ${REPO} --json number,state
gh pr view ${PR_NUMBER} --repo ${REPO} --json files

These exit 0 for any PR that exists, in any state, carrying any diff. They cannot go RED given the PR exists, so they do not distinguish a correct fix from a revert or an empty PR. The Linear Done flip on OMN-15232 (2026-07-27T14:11:06Z) rides receipts minted from those checks.

A hand-authored companion (OCC#5115, branch jonah/omn-15232-occ, head 1d604ccb5) carried probes that grep the changed source for the specific introduced construct. Autobind opened OCC#5118 for the same ticket and that shape landed instead.

Evidence supplied

All three probes re-run read-only at 2026-07-27T14:27Z against the GitHub contents API, forming a real RED/GREEN pair across the merge boundary of omnibase_infra#2497:

Probe	at 6e91834b (merged)	at f7fb7cde (pre-fix parent)
event_bus_kafka.py binds dlq_result = await self._publish_raw_to_dlq(	1, exit 0	0, exit 1
mixin_kafka_dlq.py carries OMN-15232: surface the real persistence outcome	1, exit 0	0, exit 1
regression test defines test_no_dlq_publish_call_site_discards_its_persistence_result	1, exit 0	file absent (404), exit 1

That non-zero-at-merge-base property is exactly what the landed autobind checks lack.

Why a doc and not receipts

This was a forced choice, and it is itself a finding. scripts/validation/check_receipt_hardening.py rejects any post-cutoff receipt whose evidence_item_id is absent from the ticket contract:

dod_evidence item <id> not found in <contract>; contract_entry_sha256 cannot be validated.

The stronger evidence ids exist only in the displaced hand-authored contract. Re-landing the stronger displaced probe ids as receipts would require changing the already-merged acceptance contract shape. This PR instead adds only the OCC self-bind receipt needed for landing this evidence supplement; it does not claim those displaced probes are now receipt-gated.

Scope note (no overclaim)

These are static content probes against merged source. They prove the gating code and its regression test are present at the merged SHA. They are not runtime proof that a DLQ write failure rewinds the fetch position in a live lane; no fault injection was run and none is claimed. An earlier framing of this evidence as establishing recoverability was an overclaim and is corrected here.

Separation of powers

Probes executed by fable-plan-0727-omn15232-evidence, independent of the implementer of #2497. No fix code was authored by this lane.

Follow-up

Mechanism gap filed as OMN-15247 — autobind should defer when a hand-authored companion is open for the same ticket, and/or bind its checks to diff content rather than PR existence. Do not cite autobind-contract green as proof that OMN-15232 was fixed correctly.

Evidence-Ticket: OMN-15232

Merge

Do not auto-merge. Codex owns landing.

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Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: 3622da56-09d1-485a-bdb2-abf5391c6042

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between d85d8ad and 877284e.

📒 Files selected for processing (3)

• contracts/OMN-15232.yaml
• docs/evidence/OMN-15232/falsifiable-content-probes-2026-07-27.md
• drift/dod_receipts/OMN-15232/occ-self-bind-pr-5129/command.yaml

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch jonah/omn-15232-evidence-supplement

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[jonahgabriel]

CI is RED and that is the finding, not an oversight — do not skip-token it

Both required gates (occ-preflight / eligibility, verify / verify) fail with the same validator_occ_merge_eligibility verdict:

reason: pr_ticket_mismatch
detail: no PASS receipt for one or more tickets binds to PR #5129 or one of its commit SHAs: OMN-15232
missing_contracts: []
missing_or_nonpass_receipts: []

Nothing is missing and nothing is failing — the three OMN-15232 receipts exist and PASS. The gate rejects this PR only because none of them binds to this PR number.

Clearing that would require a self-bind receipt for #5129, which requires a new dod_evidence entry in the already-merged contracts/OMN-15232.yaml. OCC is append-only and this lane was scoped net-new-file-only, so that route is closed. The alternative — this lane hand-authoring the receipt it is graded against — is what feedback_no_self_authored_evidence forbids. This lane declined to game the gate and is leaving the PR honestly RED.

The result is the sharpest available proof of the defect in OMN-15247: once autobind lands a hollow contract, the eligibility gate freezes the ticket evidence surface and actively blocks anyone from supplementing it with stronger evidence. Recorded in full as a comment on OMN-15247.

Decision needed from the landing owner (this lane does not merge; Codex owns landing). Options as I see them, least to most invasive:

1. Land as-is via an explicit, documented eligibility exception — the diff is one net-new markdown file touching no contract or receipt.
2. Retitle to drop the OMN-15232 token so the title-fallback (see OMN-15194) stops pulling the ticket into gate scope — but PR-title policy requires an OMN-XXXX, and any substitute ticket has no contract, so this likely just moves the failure.
3. Open the sanctioned append lane contemplated in OMN-15247 (supplemental dod_evidence on merged contracts) and land this behind it.

I recommend (1) for this PR and (3) as the durable fix. No auto-merge armed.