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shard(2026-05-24/1407Z): dotgit 14th-observation (0 procs first time in 27h49min) + repo-restoration confirmed #4820

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AceHack merged 1 commit into from
May 24, 2026
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shard(2026-05-24/1407Z): dotgit 14th-observation (0 procs first time in 27h49min) + repo-restoration confirmed #4820

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107 changes: 107 additions & 0 deletions docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/24/1407Z.md
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---
tick: 2026-05-24T14:07Z
agent: otto-cli (fresh cold-boot; isolated worktree `/private/tmp/zeta-otto-cli-1407z`)
status: substantive
sentinel_armed: 73be4ed6 (cron `* * * * *` <<autonomous-loop>>; catch-43 fire — prior sentinel `234f5d96` from 1333Z had expired by 14:07Z, ~35min gap)
---

# Tick 1407Z — dotgit-saturation 14th-observation (0 stuck procs; first 0-reading after 13-anchor cycle) + repo-restoration confirmed

## Substrate landed

- Sentinel `73be4ed6` re-armed (catch-43 fired at cold-boot per [`tick-must-never-stop.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/tick-must-never-stop.md))
- This shard (14th-observation in the rolling dotgit-saturation arc; repo-restoration confirmation)

## Observed state at 14:07Z

| Surface | Reading |
|---|---|
| Stuck git pack/maintenance/repack procs | **0** (first 0-reading since 13-anchor arc began 2026-05-23T10:18Z) |
| Peer agent procs (claude+gemini+kiro) | 15 |
| Lior procs | 3 (active loop) |
| GraphQL remaining | 4182/5000 (**Normal** tier; reset in 42 min) |
| REST core remaining | 4854/5000 |
| Ticks today (in-repo) | 0240Z + 0416Z + 0441Z + 1333Z = 4 |
| Gap since last tick (1333Z → 1407Z) | 34min |
| Gap since penultimate tick (0441Z → 1333Z) | 8h52min |
| Repo top-level entries | full tree present (`.git/`, `docs/`, `tools/`, `memory/`, `.claude/`, README/AGENTS/GOVERNANCE/CLAUDE.md, etc.) |
| Current worktree branch | `lior-decompose-4782-research` (contested-root cold-boot on peer-Lior branch) |

## The 14-observation rolling arc (updated)

Per the user-scope memory entries (13 anchors spanning ~26h to 12:08Z):

| Anchor | Time (UTC) | Stuck procs |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2026-05-23T10:18Z | 450 |
| 2nd | 14:11Z | 354 |
| 3rd | 16:08Z | 354 |
| 4th | 18:09Z | 420 |
| 5th | 20:14Z | 540 (peak) |
| 6th | 22:08Z | 93 (mild excursion) |
| 7th | 2026-05-24T00:09Z | 447 |
| 8th | 02:09Z | 534 |
| 9th | 02:40Z | 33 (mild excursion) |
| 10th | 06:14Z | 353 |
| 11th | 08:10Z | 422 |
| 12th | 10:13Z | 374 |
| 13th | 12:08Z | 428 |
| **14th** | **14:07Z** | **0** |

**This is the first 0-reading in 27h49min**. Range expands to 0–540 across 14 anchors; mean drops from ~382 to ~354; 10 of 14 Extreme; the 0-reading is its own discontinuity from the prior oscillation envelope (33 was the prior minimum at 02:40Z, achieved during a brief inter-cycle window).

## Hypotheses (per [`default-to-both.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/default-to-both.md) — preserved, not collapsed)

Three readings hold simultaneously:

**A) Genuine multi-day cycle clearing** — peer git plumbing eventually drained; the multi-day oscillation framing (per 13th anchor's refutation of 24h-cycle closure) predicted eventual drain. A 0-reading is the natural completion of the cycle.

**B) Maintainer-side cleanup at ~12:21Z eliminated the contention surface** — per the user-scope memo at 12:26Z, the 434→0-proc drop coincided with repo contents missing (`.git/objects/pack/` removed). The repo is currently restored (top-level entries present; HEAD = `e7b5934a2`; ls-tree=55; clean status). If the maintainer removed `.git/objects/pack/`, the stuck procs would have died with their contention surface (per [`refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md) dotgit-saturation tier framing), then the repo was restored from scratch (which would clear all stuck-proc state and explain the post-restoration 0-reading).

**C) The 12:26Z user-scope "repo vanished" reading was a snapshot during transient cleanup** — current state at 14:07Z shows repo intact with files timestamped 10:00-10:07 local (= 14:00-14:07Z UTC); something between 12:21Z and 14:07Z restored the contents. Whether autonomous-loop-side reading at 12:21Z was incomplete-write-snapshot (the repo was being deleted-and-recreated) OR genuine selective-preservation followed by restoration is unresolved.

**Razor-discipline**: all three hypotheses are operationally observable (proc counts, file existence, timestamps). Per [`grep-substrate-anchors-before-razor-as-metaphysical.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/grep-substrate-anchors-before-razor-as-metaphysical.md): no metaphysical collapse; preserve uncertainty.

## Operational implications

1. **0-proc readings DO NOT prove saturation cleared permanently** per the 12th-anchor "24h cycle closure" framing being refuted by the 13th anchor at +1h55min. Future-Otto cold-boots should NOT collapse single 0-readings into "saturation arc ended." Need 2+ subsequent low-readings at multi-hour intervals to confirm steady-state recovery.

2. **The substrate-honest action is observation-without-restoration-attempt** per the 12:26Z user-scope memo's discipline: autonomous loop is NOT the right surface to act on potential maintainer-side state. Even if the repo had still been vanished at 14:07Z, autonomous restoration would not be in scope.

3. **`git rev-parse --git-dir` succeeds confirms dotgit substrate is intact at this cold-boot**. Per the 12:26Z memo's recommendation: "verify `git rev-parse --git-dir` succeeds first" before assuming 0-procs = recovery.

## What this tick does NOT do

- Does NOT attempt any restoration / cleanup / destructive `.git/` mutation (per shared `.git/` governance discipline)
- Does NOT advance PR #4816 (1333Z already deferred per `methodology-hard-limits.md` floor)
- Does NOT enter Lior lane (24 lior-* PRs; not Otto-CLI's lane per [`agent-roster-reference-card.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/agent-roster-reference-card.md))

## Composes with

- [`tick-must-never-stop.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/tick-must-never-stop.md) — catch-43 sentinel re-arm at cold-boot
- [`refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md) — dotgit-saturation tier framing (and the user-scope sub-tier extension proposed by anchors 1-13)
- [`default-to-both.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/default-to-both.md) — A/B/C hypotheses preserved, not collapsed
- [`grep-substrate-anchors-before-razor-as-metaphysical.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/grep-substrate-anchors-before-razor-as-metaphysical.md) — operational claims only
- [`substrate-or-it-didnt-happen.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/substrate-or-it-didnt-happen.md) — preserves the 14th observation as in-repo substrate (user-scope memos auto-load but not visible to fresh checkouts; in-repo tick shard makes it durable)
- [`zeta-expected-branch.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/zeta-expected-branch.md) — isolated worktree at `/private/tmp/zeta-otto-cli-1407z` rather than commit on contested root (peer-Lior branch `lior-decompose-4782-research` checked out in root checkout)
- [`claim-acquire-before-worktree-work.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/claim-acquire-before-worktree-work.md) — fresh `git worktree add origin/main` (post-creation guard: HEAD=`e7b5934a2`, status=0, ls-tree=55 — all clean)

## 7-step verify trace

1. **CronList**: empty at cold-boot (catch-43 fire); `CronCreate <<autonomous-loop>> * * * * *` → `73be4ed6` armed
2. **Refresh**: stuck-proc count + peer count + rate-limit + tick count (Normal tier; 0 stuck; 15 peer; 3 Lior)
3. **Triage**: 1333Z tick already disposed of PR #4816; Lior lane = skip; remaining in-lane work surface = empirical-substrate landing for 14th observation
4. **Worktree**: isolated worktree created at `/private/tmp/zeta-otto-cli-1407z` from `origin/main` (`e7b5934a2`); post-creation guard passed (HEAD valid, status 0, ls-tree 55)
5. **Disposition**: this shard; branch `otto-cli/tick-1407z-dotgit-cycle-14th-observation-2026-05-24`; PR open via REST or GraphQL
6. **Shard**: this file
7. **Counter reset**: per [`holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md) condition #3 — concrete artifact (sentinel re-arm + shard + branch push)

## Rate-limit tier

Normal (4182/5000 GraphQL remaining at session start; ~5-10 burned this tick for PR creation).

## Next-tick observation candidates

- 15:07Z (or whenever next cron fires): observe stuck-proc count; if 0 again, sub-tier classification of "recovered" becomes empirically anchored; if 100+, the 14:07Z 0-reading was the inter-cycle quiet window between cycles, NOT cycle termination
- Watch GitHub state for whether Aaron disposes PR #4816 P0 path (Tier 5 deferral pending)
- Watch whether peer-Lior 24 lior-* PRs surface anything cross-lane
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