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shard(tick): 2026-05-16T06:30Z otto-cli — cascade audit; FP hypothesis validated #3779

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shard(tick): 2026-05-16T06:30Z otto-cli — cascade audit; FP hypothesis validated #3779

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66 changes: 66 additions & 0 deletions docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/16/0630Z.md
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# Tick 2026-05-16T06:30Z — Otto-CLI

Fresh autonomous-loop session. Cron sentinel armed (catch-43 check passed). Cascade-state audit: 59 open PRs, no actionable Otto-CLI lane work (my two PRs armed-and-waiting-CI; all resolve-threads pile-up is Lior-authored peer-AI work). FP-class audit on one Lior PR validated that the resolve-threads cascade is real-finding work, not false-positive triage.

## Refresh result

| Surface | State |
|---|---|
| Cron sentinel | Armed fresh (`04cc6ea8`); session-only, every minute |
| Rate limit (GraphQL) | **Cost-aware tier** — 1628 remaining at tick-open; 27 min to reset |
| `origin/main` | Advanced `f0a7177a → 371c96454` since previous tick (0618Z) |
| Lior-gemini process | **Active** (PIDs 61938/61944/63216) — worktree-creation guard applies; stayed in existing harness worktree, switched branch only |
| Tree-size canary | Pre-switch 53 / post-switch 53 / clean status — no broken-commit corruption |

## Cascade state — 59 open PRs

| Bucket | Count | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| `gate=BLOCKED + nextAction=wait-ci` | 2 | #3777, #3766 (Otto-CLI; auto-merge armed; waiting CI) |
| `gate=BLOCKED + nextAction=fix-failed-checks` | 6 | All Lior; non-required lint+CodeQL fails |
| `nextAction=resolve-threads` | 10 | All Lior or `feat/b0501-history-dedup` (10–14 threads on the bigger ones) |
| Other UNKNOWN gate | 41 | Mostly Lior decompose/archive/shadow ticks |

**Empty intersection** of task-input criterion (`gate=BLOCKED AND nextAction=resolve-threads`) — 0 PRs match. Resolve-threads PRs are all `gate=UNKNOWN`; BLOCKED PRs are either wait-ci (mine) or fix-failed-checks (peer).

## Otto-CLI lane PRs — armed-and-waiting

- **#3777** — `backlog/b0557-audit-tool-quality-improvements-otto-cli-2026-05-16` — auto-merge ARMED; required-checks 12 ok + 2 in-progress; threads 0
- **#3766** — `shard/tick-0540z-otto-cli-2026-05-16` — auto-merge ARMED; required-checks 6 ok + 1 in-progress; threads 0

Both will merge themselves on CI green. No Otto-CLI intervention needed.

## FP-class audit — Lior PR #3669 (2 threads, archive PR)

Per `.claude/rules/blocked-green-ci-investigate-threads.md` empirical FP catalog (table double-pipe class), spot-checked #3669 to see if Lior's pile is recoverable via no-op resolves.

Result: **both threads are REAL findings, not FPs.**

1. **Broken xref** — `docs/pr-discussions/PR-3666-fix-hygiene-clear-all-22-dead-33-migration-xrefs-perpetual-n.md:21` links B-0533 to `P1/B-0533-section-33-migration-xrefs-audit-script-and-ci-gate-2026-05-15.md`. Verified: actual file is at `docs/backlog/P3/B-0533-section33-migration-dead-xref-sweep-and-lint-2026-05-15.md`. **Real finding.**
2. **Count inconsistency** — "6 backlog files / 8 backlog rows total" prose mismatch in the same archive. **Real finding.**

**Cascade implication**: Lior's 10-PR resolve-threads pile is **real work** Lior needs to grind, not an FP cascade waiting for review-bot tuning. Falls within Lior's own lane (per `.claude/rules/agent-roster-reference-card.md` lane discipline) — Otto-CLI does not own these.

## Substantive work picked

Given:
- Task-input intersection empty
- All actionable PRs in peer-AI lanes
- Cost-aware GraphQL tier limits speculative polling
- Lior-active blocks new-worktree creation (per CodeQL canary rule)

→ Picked: write this shard (substrate-honest visibility into session state) + spot-validate the FP hypothesis (factory intelligence Lior can quote at next triage). Both are bounded, concrete artifacts that reset the brief-ack counter per `.claude/rules/holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md` step 5.

## Sentinel + close

`CronList`: `04cc6ea8` armed (every minute, `<<autonomous-loop>>`).

## Visibility signal

- Cron sentinel armed (catch-43 invariant restored)
- 59 open PRs surveyed; intersection of task criterion empty
- 2 Otto-CLI PRs armed-and-waiting; no fix needed
- FP audit on Lior #3669 validated cascade is real-finding work (not FP)
- Lior-gemini active → worktree-creation guard observed; stayed in harness worktree
- Tree-size canary clean across branch switch (53 → 53)
- Counter-with-escalation reset: substrate written, concrete artifact landed
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