shard(tick): 2018Z — 39-candidate manual triage via 9-variant taxonomy

docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/14/2018Z.md

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+# Tick 2026-05-14T20:18Z — 39-candidate manual triage via 9-variant taxonomy
+
+## Refresh (step 1)
+
+- Rate limit: healthy.
+- 8 open PRs. Mine: zero (#3219 merged).
+
+## Holding discipline (step 2)
+
+Per Standing-by-failure-mode rule's option list, picked: "use the tool I shipped + manually classify candidates through the 9-variant taxonomy" — demonstrates Layer A → manual Layer B workflow.
+
+## Speculative work (step 3) — 39-candidate triage
+
+Ran `bun tools/hygiene/audit-rule-cross-refs.ts` → 39 stale-pointer candidates. Applied the 9-variant taxonomy from PR #3200 / 1920Z shard:
+
+### Classification breakdown
+
+| Variant | Count | Examples |
+|---------|-------|----------|
+| **Bare-filename ref** (file exists; needs path prefix) | 25 | peer-call .ts files (claude.ts, kiro.ts, etc.); rule files referenced without `.claude/rules/` prefix |
+| **Template path** (placeholder; instances exist) | 3 | `docs/hygiene-history/ticks/YYYY/MM/DD/HHMMZ.md` from `shard-cadence-triumph.md`, `tick-must-never-stop.md`, `otto-channels-reference-card.md` |
+| **Legacy-noted ref** (rule says "cleared/retired") | 3 | `audit-lost-files.sh`, `audit-trajectories.sh`, `audit-backlog-items.sh` in `rule-0-no-sh-files.md` |
+| **Conditional ref** (rule says "not yet built") | 1 | `tools/substrate-discovery/discover.ts` in `test-canary.md` |
+| **Alternative-location ref** (repo uses different valid path) | 1 | `.claude/CLAUDE.md` in `test-canary.md` |
+| **Transient/ephemeral** (rule says "DON'T rely on this") | 2 | `.claude/scheduled_tasks.json`, `loop-tick-history.md` in `tick-must-never-stop.md` |
+| **Glob-with-dir-wildcard not yet expanded** | 1 | `tools/hygiene/audit-*.sh` in `rule-0-no-sh-files.md` (correctly retired; glob would resolve to zero files) |
+| **Bare path needs `memory/` prefix** | 1 | `feedback_aaron_wwjd_cyborg_immortality_*` in `default-to-both.md` (file exists at `memory/`) |
+| **REAL STALE POINTER** | 2 | Both forms of `feedback_aaron_wwjd_keeps_the_grey_in_aaron_honest_devil_lives_in_the_grey_in_numbers_2026_05_12.md` in `default-to-both.md` — already captured by B-0514 |
+
+**Total: 39 candidates = 37 healthy variants + 2 entries pointing at the 1 real defect (B-0514).**
+
+### Confirmation
+
+Of the 281 cross-references the tool scans, 280 are LIVE either directly or after applying the 9-variant taxonomy classification. The 1 real stale pointer (the missing wwjd-grey-honest file) is already captured as B-0514.
+
+**The 12-batch manual audit's conclusion (217/218 = 99.5% LIVE; 1 defect) is reproduced by the tool's Layer A + manual taxonomy application.** Confidence in the mechanization is high.
+
+## Verify (step 4)
+
+Each candidate manually verified via `test -e <prefix>/<filename>` where the rule-prose context suggests the proper prefix.
+
+## Shard (step 5)
+
+This file.
+
+## CronList (step 6)
+
+Sentinel `f970cb2d` armed.
+
+## Visibility (step 7)
+
+- **Layer A → manual Layer B workflow demonstrated**: tool produces 39 candidates; human/Otto applies taxonomy to reduce to 1 real defect (B-0514, already known)
+- **False-positive rate**: 38/39 = 97% — the audit tool's Layer A is high-recall + low-precision; Layer B classification is genuinely load-bearing for triage
+- **The tool's output is useful**: pointing at the exact 1 defect among 281 refs would be hard to spot manually; the candidate list is the right shape even with the false-positive density
+
+## Notes for future-Otto
+
+**Layer B is the highest-leverage next mechanization**. Encoding the 9-variant classification heuristics would reduce the candidate list from 39 → 1-2. Heuristics:
+
+| Variant | Heuristic |
+|---------|-----------|
+| Bare-filename | If `<basename>` resolves under `tools/peer-call/`, `.claude/rules/`, `memory/`, `docs/`, etc., try that prefix |
+| Template path | If contains `YYYY/MM/DD/HHMM`, check the surface directory has ≥1 instance |
+| Legacy-noted | Search rule body for "cleared" / "retired" / "legacy" near the reference |
+| Conditional | Search rule body for "would" / "if" / "not yet built" near the reference |
+| Alternative-location | Search rule body for "alternative" / "valid" / "documented" near the reference |
+| Transient | Search rule body for "DON'T rely" / "transient" / "ephemeral" near the reference |
+| Anti-pattern | Search rule body for "NOT" / "instead of" / "the old way" near the reference |
+
+These are LLM-or-regex tractable. Future Layer B implementation in `audit-rule-cross-refs.ts` would gate on this taxonomy classification before reporting a candidate as "true stale."