fix: producers that ran before heartbeats were switched on, and three stored verdicts that had rotted

.verify-floor.json

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
- "collected": 365,
- "passed": 365,
+ "collected": 366,
+ "passed": 366,
  "skipped_max": 24,
  "selftest_skipped_max": 7,
  "gate_skipped_max": 2,
- "note": "Recorded by verify.py --update-floor, except the *_max ceilings, which are edited BY HAND and never re-measured. `collected` catches tests that stopped being collected; `passed` is compared against passed+skipped, so a check may move between passing and consciously-skipped but the two together may never shrink. The *_max ceilings bound the skipped side: 24/7/2 is exactly what a machine with none of this instance's local prerequisites skips (a GitHub runner: no agent CLIs, no ~/.codex/skills, no /Applications/ChatGPT.app, no populated capability ledger), measured 2026-08-21. On the owner's machine all prerequisites exist and nothing skips at all. Raising a ceiling is a deliberate act: it means agreeing that one more thing is allowed to go unchecked, so say which and why in the commit. LOWERED 26 -> 24 on 2026-08-22, reverting the raise made earlier the same day. The two kill-switch exemption tests no longer need to skip on a bare runner: their declarations moved out of the running instance's ledger and into capabilities.KNOWN_DECLARATIONS, so they assert code-derived truth and run everywhere. Moving a test back below the ceiling is the preferred way to lower it -- fix what made it machine-dependent, rather than agreeing to check less. FLOOR 345 -> 353 on 2026-08-22: 345 was measured on a branch cut before #13 (research panels/rounds/domain studies) merged, so the recorded floor sat 8 tests BELOW what main actually collects. A floor below reality is the permissive direction -- those 8 could have silently stopped being collected and still cleared the check, which is exactly the hole this file exists to close. Measure the floor on the merge result, not on the branch. Raised again on 2026-08-22 by the producer-identity-scope branch, which adds tests on top of the 353 recorded by #15; re-measured after rebasing rather than assumed. NOTE: `verify.py --update-floor` REPLACES this note with a generic one, so it must be restored by hand after every use \u2014 the ceiling rationale is the only record of which prerequisite justifies each skip."
+ "note": "Recorded by verify.py --update-floor, except the *_max ceilings, which are edited BY HAND and never re-measured. `collected` catches tests that stopped being collected; `passed` is compared against passed+skipped, so a check may move between passing and consciously-skipped but the two together may never shrink. The *_max ceilings bound the skipped side: 24/7/2 is exactly what a machine with none of this instance's local prerequisites skips (a GitHub runner: no agent CLIs, no ~/.codex/skills, no /Applications/ChatGPT.app, no populated capability ledger), measured 2026-08-21. On the owner's machine all prerequisites exist and nothing skips at all. Raising a ceiling is a deliberate act: it means agreeing that one more thing is allowed to go unchecked, so say which and why in the commit. LOWERED 26 -> 24 on 2026-08-22, reverting the raise made earlier the same day. The two kill-switch exemption tests no longer need to skip on a bare runner: their declarations moved out of the running instance's ledger and into capabilities.KNOWN_DECLARATIONS, so they assert code-derived truth and run everywhere. Moving a test back below the ceiling is the preferred way to lower it -- fix what made it machine-dependent, rather than agreeing to check less. FLOOR 345 -> 353 on 2026-08-22: 345 was measured on a branch cut before #13 (research panels/rounds/domain studies) merged, so the recorded floor sat 8 tests BELOW what main actually collects. A floor below reality is the permissive direction -- those 8 could have silently stopped being collected and still cleared the check, which is exactly the hole this file exists to close. Measure the floor on the merge result, not on the branch. Raised again on 2026-08-22 by the producer-identity-scope branch, which adds tests on top of the 353 recorded by #15; re-measured after rebasing rather than assumed. NOTE: `verify.py --update-floor` REPLACES this note with a generic one, so it must be restored by hand after every use \u2014 the ceiling rationale is the only record of which prerequisite justifies each skip. FLOOR 365 -> 366 on 2026-08-22 (heartbeat-ordering work, PR #18): exactly one new test, test_capabilities.test_no_tick_producer_runs_above_the_heartbeat_export. No ceiling moved and nothing new is skipped -- it reads source files rather than a populated ledger, so it runs on any machine. The branch recorded 354 because it was cut before #16 merged; re-measured on the MERGE RESULT per the rule above, which is exactly the mistake that put the floor 8 below reality last time."
 }

README.md

@@ -69,8 +69,12 @@ safety switch, not dead code.
 2. **backlog.py** — discovers actionable issues/PRs across the fleet from GitHub labels.
 3. **router.py** — ranks agents per task: capacity tier → learned route weights → **continuous
    drain urgency** (unused expiring quota reads cheaper). ε-greedy exploration is default; a
-   Thompson-sampling path exists, gated behind `ORCH_EXPLORATION_MODE` pending the weekly
-   evidence gate's recommendation.
+   Thompson-sampling path exists, gated behind `ORCH_EXPLORATION_MODE`. That gate is no longer
+   "pending a review": `exploration_review` was run on 2026-08-22 and returned
+   `keep_epsilon_greedy` / `epsilon_still_preferred` — its evidence gates ARE met, and Thompson-hybrid
+   improves simulated challenger quality and direct exploration outcomes not *both*. So ε-greedy is
+   kept on merit, and `capability_recurrence_check._check_thompson` now runs the review and reports
+   its recommendation, so the switch re-raises itself if that verdict ever flips.
 4. **tick.py → dispatcher.py** — claims a target (claims.py: atomic, live-pid-guarded, reap-grace +
    reap-mutex), spawns the agent in an isolated worktree with a kill-proof done-marker, releases on
    exit. High-stakes closer items pass through the **adversarial.py** refute-mode veto panel.