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70 changes: 70 additions & 0 deletions src/v2/workflow/floor_cost_debt.dag
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -196,6 +196,76 @@ import v2.std.text { String }
// Verified against the same cost receipt before enrolment: all 46 are `budget_interrupted` or
// `completed_over_budget` and NONE has outcome `fail`.
//
// HOW UNINFORMATIVE THAT LOWER BOUND IS, MEASURED RATHER THAN ASSERTED -- and the number is the
// point, because THREE READERS INDEPENDENTLY TREATED IT AS A POINT ESTIMATE. This carrier says
// above that a censored figure is a lower bound. It is, and the sentence is not enough: the bound
// and the true cost are essentially UNCORRELATED in this population, so any reasoning that sorts,
// buckets or thresholds on the reported figure is unsound even when every individual figure is
// honest.
//
// THE INSTRUMENT IS A PAIR OF FLOOR RUNS DIFFERING ONLY IN THE CEILING, so the join is a
// controlled measurement and not two observations of two trees. Censored: run 33191118450
// (`session/witty-wren-148`), 500ms CPU. Uncensored: run 33190645319 (`probe/ceiling-uncensor-9517`),
// ceiling raised, same tree. Both emit `required_floor_claim_cost.tsv`; the rows below are that
// artifact's own `cpu_ms` column joined on `identity`. The figures are transcribed here, as a
// declared exception to "name the instrument, never transcribe its output", for the reason this
// document grants that exception elsewhere: the probe branch is DELETED, so no producer on this
// side of the boundary can re-derive the uncensored half, and the subject of the row IS the
// divergence between the two runs rather than either run's state.
//
// identity censored -> true (cpu_ms)
// ..cost_coverage_witness.cost_coverage_dag_logic_has_three_fn_bodies 506 -> 2897
// ..cost_coverage_witness.cost_coverage_file_row_totality_holds_on_smoke 506 -> 2907
// ..cost_coverage_witness.cost_coverage_v2_ingested_body_is_not_decl.. 502 -> 2902
// ..identity_captured_navigation_roster_gate.green_control_sanctioned.. 507 -> 2227
// ..emit_on_demand_classical_not_ingested_family_witness.emit_on_demand.. 502 -> 2374
// ..emit_ingest_grammar_relation_round_trip.same_grammar_parse_ingest.. 527 -> 1658
// ..nominal_distinctness_cross_call.nominal_distinct_control_compiles_ok 505 -> 1596
// ..lens_module_gate_witness.lens_closure_question_zero_holds_live 1655 -> 1713
// ..external_model_scope_live_cover_witness.frontier_cover_of_live.. 501 -> 559
// ..operation_argv_corpus_witness.operation_argv_corpus_every_row_is.. 502 -> 520
// ..roadmap_belt_witness.witness_belt_plan_equals_step_composition 502 -> 355
// ..roadmap_belt_witness.witness_belt_plan_paused_holds_on_authority 502 -> 380
//
// READ THE FIRST AND THE ELEVENTH LINES TOGETHER. `502 -> 2902` and `502 -> 355` are THE SAME
// REPORTED NUMBER. One row costs nearly six times the ceiling; the other is comfortably under it
// and was interrupted only because the fold's charged clock crossed the line during it. The
// reported figure does not distinguish them, and no amount of care in reading it can, because the
// information is not in the column.
//
// WHAT THAT REFUTES, NAMED SO THE READING DOES NOT RETURN. Two decisions on this axis were argued
// from the shape of this cluster, and both arguments are void:
// - "membership is decided by run-to-run variance" (this branch's own PR body, over four
// `bootstrap_footprint` siblings at 492/502/502/506ms). TRUE OF THOSE FOUR -- they measure
// 460ms uncensored -- and FALSE of the seven rows above them, which measure 1596-2907ms. The
// reasoning could not tell the two groups apart, so it was right by luck on the group it was
// applied to.
// - "26 of 44 sit within 2% of the 5000ms ceiling, so scheduling noise decides them" (the
// handoff for the 5000ms-era population, `calm-ram-380`). Same shape one ceiling up, and
// the same refutation: those 26 rows' true costs are UNMEASURED and unbounded above.
//
// AND THE AGREEMENT WAS NOT CORROBORATION. Three readers reached the marginality reading
// independently, which reads as confirmation and is not: a shared input is a shared potential
// defect, and all three were reading one column that cannot express the distinction they were
// drawing. That is this document's own recognition rule applied to its own authors.
//
// WHAT THIS DOES NOT LICENSE. It is not an argument to move the ceiling -- if anything it is the
// opposite, since the rows nearest the line are the ones most likely to be far over it. It is not
// an argument to enrol or release any row here; the four `bootstrap_footprint` siblings measure
// under the ceiling uncensored and are NOT on this roster, which is correct. It settles one thing
// only: a censored figure may not be used as a cost, and a decision that needs a cost for an
// interrupted row must uncensor and re-measure, as the pair above did.
//
// THE CONSTRUCTION THIS WANTS IS NOT BUILT, AND THAT IS A DECLARED OMISSION RATHER THAN AN
// OVERSIGHT. `write_required_floor_claim_cost_tsv` renders a censored lower bound into the same
// `cpu_ms`/`wall_ms` columns a completed row's exact measurement occupies, distinguished only by
// the adjacent `verdict_reached` column -- which is an exact discriminator (false for exactly the
// 12 `budget_interrupted` rows and nothing else) that every reader above failed to join. Making
// the bound unable to inhabit the measured-cost slot is the DESIGN section 5 construction move,
// and it was deliberately not landed here: forward implementation is frozen under the 2026-08-28
// wind-down. TRIGGER: when that freeze lifts, a censored figure gets a rendering a numeric reader
// cannot silently consume, and this paragraph's warning becomes the regression control for it.
//
// THE ONE THING NEITHER POPULATION MAY CONTAIN IS A KNOWN FAILURE, and the reason is a live
// receipt rather than a principle. A first attempt at this roster was measured on THIS branch,
// with the 500ms ceiling already in place, and enrolled 276 interrupted rows. The tightened
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