Roadmap estimation mechanism: sizing-class cycle-time calibration from acceptance/PR history + dependency critical-path forecasts (typed Forecast, refuse-on-unknown)

dag/extdeps/github/pulls.dag

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 module extdeps.github.pulls
 
 import extdeps.github.github { GitHubUser, default_api_base, default_per_page }
-import std.types { CommitSha, FilePath, GitRef, NonEmptyStr, Timestamp, HttpMethod, AuthScheme }
+import std.types { CommitSha, EpochMs, FilePath, GitRef, NonEmptyStr, Timestamp, HttpMethod, AuthScheme }
 import extdeps.github.errors { GitHubErrorShape }
 import std.credentials { CredentialSource, EnvVar }
 import std.serialization { WireFormat, Text }
@@ -48,6 +48,73 @@ type PullRequest {
   draft: Bool
 }
 
+data pull_timing_observation_provenance_note: String = "One-time GitHub REST pull on 2026-08-01 under this module's existing GET-pull authority. Each row is the PullRequest.created_at and PullRequest.merged_at pair returned by github.Pulls.Get, normalized once from the wire Timestamp strings to Unix epoch milliseconds so arithmetic consumers do not pretend Timestamp is subtractable. The source URL remains on every row and fetched_on makes staleness inspectable. PullRequest stays the one wire-response authority; PullTimingObservation is its cited, immutable arithmetic projection, not a second endpoint or response model."
+
+type PullTimingObservation {
+  pull_number: Int
+  opened_at: EpochMs
+  merged_at: EpochMs
+  source_url: NonEmptyStr
+  fetched_on: NonEmptyStr
+}
+
+fn pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: Int,
+  opened_at: EpochMs,
+  merged_at: EpochMs,
+  source_url: NonEmptyStr,
+) -> PullTimingObservation {
+  PullTimingObservation {
+    pull_number: pull_number,
+    opened_at: opened_at,
+    merged_at: merged_at,
+    source_url: source_url,
+    fetched_on: "2026-08-01",
+  }
+}
+
+data gunbc_pr_7393_timing: PullTimingObservation = pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: 7393,
+  opened_at: 1785284539000,
+  merged_at: 1785298702000,
+  source_url: "https://github.com/gunb-ai/gunbc/pull/7393",
+)
+
+data gunbc_pr_7405_timing: PullTimingObservation = pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: 7405,
+  opened_at: 1785294084000,
+  merged_at: 1785357921000,
+  source_url: "https://github.com/gunb-ai/gunbc/pull/7405",
+)
+
+data gunbc_pr_7429_timing: PullTimingObservation = pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: 7429,
+  opened_at: 1785356295000,
+  merged_at: 1785358865000,
+  source_url: "https://github.com/gunb-ai/gunbc/pull/7429",
+)
+
+data gunbc_pr_7431_timing: PullTimingObservation = pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: 7431,
+  opened_at: 1785358812000,
+  merged_at: 1785397720000,
+  source_url: "https://github.com/gunb-ai/gunbc/pull/7431",
+)
+
+data gunbc_pr_7441_timing: PullTimingObservation = pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: 7441,
+  opened_at: 1785362512000,
+  merged_at: 1785370233000,
+  source_url: "https://github.com/gunb-ai/gunbc/pull/7441",
+)
+
+data gunbc_pr_7542_timing: PullTimingObservation = pull_timing_observation(
+  pull_number: 7542,
+  opened_at: 1785552700000,
+  merged_at: 1785557096000,
+  source_url: "https://github.com/gunb-ai/gunbc/pull/7542",
+)
+
 type IssueComment {
   id: Int
   html_url: NonEmptyStr

dag/extdeps/project_schedule/cpm_pert.dag

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+module extdeps.project_schedule.cpm_pert
+
+import extdeps.external_authority { ExternalAuthority }
+import extdeps.uri { Uri, Https }
+
+data extdeps_external_authority_anchor: ExternalAuthority = ExternalAuthority {
+  uri: Uri {
+    scheme: Https
+    locator: "www.gao.gov/products/gao-16-89g"
+  }
+}
+
+data rcpsp_lower_bound_external_authority: ExternalAuthority = ExternalAuthority {
+  uri: Uri {
+    scheme: Https
+    locator: "doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00763-4"
+  }
+}
+
+data schedule_method_grounding_note: String = "GAO-16-89G, Schedule Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Project Schedules, is the cited scheduling authority. Best Practice 6 defines the critical path as the longest continuous sequence of activities and the program's earliest completion/minimum duration. Its schedule-risk guidance calls for three-point duration estimates (minimum, most likely, maximum). This module names those two standard method roles only; the roadmap instantiation supplies its own observed distribution and dependency graph."
+
+data resource_capacity_lower_bound_grounding_note: String = "Baptiste and Demassey, On linear lower bounds for the resource constrained project scheduling problem, European Journal of Operational Research 149(2), 2003, DOI 10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00763-4, grounds makespan lower bounds for RCPSP. For one declared renewable slot resource, if each activity continuously occupies one slot for its modeled duration, every feasible schedule is bounded below by ceil(total slot-time / slot capacity). Taking the maximum of that work-volume bound and the precedence critical-path bound remains a lower bound; it is not a resource-leveled schedule."
+
+type CriticalPathMethod {}
+type ThreePointEstimateMethod {}
+type ResourceCapacityLowerBoundMethod {}
+
+data critical_path_method: CriticalPathMethod = CriticalPathMethod {}
+data three_point_estimate_method: ThreePointEstimateMethod = ThreePointEstimateMethod {}
+data resource_capacity_lower_bound_method: ResourceCapacityLowerBoundMethod = ResourceCapacityLowerBoundMethod {}

dag/gunbc/publication_grant.dag

@@ -65,12 +65,14 @@ data public_file_publish_grants: List<PublicFilePublishGrant> = [
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/crm/hubspot_lifecycle.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/crm/salesforce_opportunity.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/git/inspect.dag"),
+  public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/project_schedule/cpm_pert.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/github/workflows.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/vendor/alphabet.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/vendor/hubspot.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/vendor/meta_platforms.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/extdeps/vendor/salesforce.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/gunbc/econ/acquisition.dag"),
+  public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/gunbc/roadmap_forecast.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/gunbc/heal_revalidation.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/gunbc/publication_cutover.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/gunbc/publication_grant.dag"),
@@ -79,6 +81,7 @@ data public_file_publish_grants: List<PublicFilePublishGrant> = [
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/acquisition_mechanism_witness_test.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/advertising_interface_witness_test.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/crm_stage_vocabulary_witness_test.dag"),
+  public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/roadmap_forecast_witness_test.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/heal_revalidation_integration_witness_test.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/heal_revalidation_witness_test.dag"),
   public_file_publish_grant(path: "dag/test/claim/roadmap_presentation_witness_test.dag"),