Add closed-fix-unlinked regression classification to release-readiness

.github/skills/release-readiness/SKILL.md

@@ -34,17 +34,19 @@ This skill has **three** PowerShell entry points and one workflow:
 | Script | Branch type | Purpose |
 |--------|-------------|---------|
 | [`Find-ReleaseReadinessTrackers.ps1`](scripts/Find-ReleaseReadinessTrackers.ps1) | both | Detects active in-flight & candidate trackers (SR and Preview) across all active majors using a four-lane algorithm and the **tag-existence rule** ("a release is in flight unless its tag already exists"). Emits a single tracker JSON consumed by the workflow. |
-| [`Get-ReleaseReadiness.ps1`](scripts/Get-ReleaseReadiness.ps1) | SR | Full readiness report for a single SR branch (in-flight or `-Candidate`). |
+| [`Get-ReleaseReadiness.ps1`](scripts/Get-ReleaseReadiness.ps1) | SR | Full readiness report for a single SR branch (in-flight, `-Candidate`, or `-Shipped`). `-Shipped` is a display-only relabel — it surveys the SR branch exactly like in-flight but renders the header as `mode=shipped` for the post-ship tracker. |
 | [`Get-PreviewReadiness.ps1`](scripts/Get-PreviewReadiness.ps1) | Preview | Full readiness report for a single Preview branch (in-flight or candidate via `-Mode candidate -SurveyRef net<major>.0`). |
 | [`release-readiness.yml`](../../workflows/release-readiness.yml) | both | Daily cron + manual dispatch + PR validation. Runs `Find-Trackers -AllActiveMajors`, fans out a matrix job per tracker, and writes idempotent `[Release Readiness]` issues per branch. |
 
 ### Tag-existence rule (canonical signal)
 
 The trackers detector is grounded in **tag existence as the source of truth for "shipped vs in-flight"**. A release is in-flight if and only if its expected tag has NOT been published — branch existence, commit recency, and milestone state are all secondary signals.
 
-- SR shipped tag pattern: `<major>.0.<patch>` (e.g. `10.0.71` shipped → SR7 no longer produces a tracker)
+- SR shipped tag pattern: `<major>.0.<patch>` (e.g. `10.0.71` shipped → SR7 retired, no longer produces a tracker)
 - Preview shipped tag pattern: `<major>.0.0-preview.<N>.<date>[.<build>]` (e.g. `11.0.0-preview.5.26304.4` shipped → preview5 no longer produces a tracker)
 
+**Post-ship lifecycle (`shipped` mode).** Most shipped SRs are retired the moment their tag exists. The **one exception** is the *most-recently-shipped* SR (highest shipped patch), which keeps emitting as `mode='shipped'` so its tracker issue stays useful through post-ship follow-up — adding the new build to the GitHub issue version dropdown, publishing release notes, closing out the milestone. The workflow treats `shipped` as **refresh-only**: it updates the tracker issue while it stays open, but **never (re)creates it**. Once a human closes the tracker, it stays closed and is not resurrected on the next scheduled run. This implements "keep updating until closed manually" without spamming a fresh issue after sign-off. Older shipped SRs are still retired.
+
 ## Quick Start
 
 ### One-shot daily report (matches what the workflow runs)
@@ -59,7 +61,7 @@ pwsh .github/skills/release-readiness/scripts/Find-ReleaseReadinessTrackers.ps1
 #   branchType:    'sr' | 'preview'
 #   branchName:    canonical proposed branch slug (always populated)
 #   branchExists:  true if the branch is on origin, false for candidates
-#   mode:          'in-flight' | 'candidate'
+#   mode:          'in-flight' | 'candidate' | 'shipped'  (shipped = most-recently-shipped SR, refresh-only)
 #   surveyRef:     ref to actually survey (branch itself, or net<major>.0 for candidates)
 #   canonicalKey:  stable join key (e.g. net10-sr8, net11-preview6)
 #   issueTitle:    title for the daily tracker issue
@@ -172,7 +174,7 @@ pwsh .github/skills/release-readiness/scripts/Get-PreviewReadiness.ps1 \
    - Dispatches to `Get-ReleaseReadiness.ps1` (SR) or `Get-PreviewReadiness.ps1` (Preview) based on `branchType`.
    - Looks for an open tracker issue by the canonical marker `<!-- release-readiness-tracker: <key> -->`.
      - **Refresh path**: reuse the oldest open tracker issue (edit title + body); close any duplicates.
-     - **Create path**: open a new issue with `report` / `s/triaged` / `area-release-readiness` labels.
+     - **Create path**: open a new issue with `report` / `s/triaged` / `area-infrastructure` labels (each attached best-effort — a label missing from the repo is skipped with a warning rather than failing the create).
    - **Activity gate**: skip new-issue creation when `recentCommitCount == 0` AND no open tracker issue exists. (Existing open issues are still refreshed.)
 3. **`validate`** — PR-trigger path. Runs the test suite + smoke-runs all three scripts. **Does not create or modify issues.**
 
@@ -202,6 +204,7 @@ Each candidate fix PR is classified with confidence + evidence:
 | `merged-non-main-only` | Fix merged but only to `inflight/current` (or similar), not `main` |
 | `open-on-main` | Fix PR is OPEN against main, not yet merged |
 | `no-fix-yet` | No fix PR cross-referenced from the regression issue |
+| `closed-fix-unlinked` | Issue is CLOSED and a closing comment **explicitly names** a fix PR (fix/resolve/close language) that is MERGED and present on the release branch, but the PR↔issue link was never recorded (no closing keyword / cross-reference). A bare mention of a PR (e.g. naming the *cause* PR for context) does **not** qualify. Non-blocking; action is to add a closing reference for traceability |
 | `needs-human-review` | Evidence is contradictory or weak |
 
 ## CI Status Categories

.github/skills/release-readiness/references/methodology.md

@@ -170,6 +170,7 @@ The skill must derive which `regressed-in-X.Y.Z` labels matter for a given SR:
 | `merged-on-main-no-backport` | Fix PR state=MERGED, `onMain=true`, no backport PR to `$SrBranch` exists |
 | `open-on-main` | Fix PR state=OPEN, base=main |
 | `no-fix-yet` | No cross-referenced PR with high-confidence evidence found |
+| `closed-fix-unlinked` | `no-fix-yet` would apply, BUT the issue is CLOSED and a closing comment **explicitly names** a fix PR (fix/resolve/close language) that is MERGED and whose commit is on `$SrBranch` (verified by SHA-ancestry OR the `(#<num>)` squash-subject token). A bare PR mention (the cause-PR blame pattern) is rejected. Surfaces a missing PR↔issue link rather than a false "no fix" alarm. Non-blocking (Tier 3) |
 | `needs-human-review` | Only weak evidence; OR multiple candidate PRs with conflicting verdicts |
 
 ## CI Freshness

.github/skills/release-readiness/scripts/Find-ReleaseReadinessTrackers.ps1

@@ -18,7 +18,14 @@
         does NOT exist on origin, the branch is in-flight — the release
         notes for that exact patch haven't been published yet, so it hasn't
         shipped. If the tag exists, the branch has already shipped that
-        patch and is skipped.
+        patch. Shipped SRs are normally retired, EXCEPT the most-recently-
+        shipped one (highest shipped patch), which is emitted as
+        mode='shipped' so its tracker keeps refreshing through post-ship
+        follow-up (adding the new build to the GitHub issue version dropdown,
+        release notes, milestone close-out). The workflow treats 'shipped'
+        as REFRESH-ONLY: it updates the tracker issue while it stays open but
+        never re-creates it, so once a human closes it, it stays closed.
+        Older shipped SRs are skipped.
 
       Lane 2 — next SR off main
         Identifies the highest SR (across in-flight branches AND shipped tags)
@@ -538,7 +545,7 @@ function New-Tracker {
     param(
         [int]$Major,
         [int]$SrNumber,
-        [string]$Mode,                 # 'in-flight' or 'candidate'
+        [string]$Mode,                 # 'in-flight', 'candidate', or 'shipped'
         [string]$BranchName,            # nullable for candidate without branch
         [string]$SurveyRef,             # branch or development ref to survey
         [string]$PriorSrBranch,         # nullable; used as -SrBranch for -Candidate mode
@@ -561,6 +568,9 @@ function New-Tracker {
     if ($Mode -eq 'candidate') {
         $title = "[Release Readiness] .NET $Major SR$SrNumber — candidate from $SurveyRef"
     }
+    elseif ($Mode -eq 'shipped') {
+        $title = "[Release Readiness] .NET $Major SR$SrNumber — shipped ($branchDisplay)"
+    }
     return [pscustomobject]@{
         branchType           = 'sr'
         srNumber             = $SrNumber
@@ -728,7 +738,28 @@ function Invoke-DetectionForMajor {
             $inflightBranchesBySr[$sr] = $branch
             Write-Host "  -> in-flight SR tracker: SR$sr (patch=$branchPatch, no tag $expectedTag yet, recent=$recent)" -ForegroundColor Green
         } else {
-            Write-Host "  -> SR$sr branch '$branch' patch=$branchPatch already shipped (tag $expectedTag exists)" -ForegroundColor DarkGray
+            # Already shipped (the stable tag exists). We normally retire the
+            # tracker here, BUT the most-recently-shipped SR still has post-ship
+            # follow-up the tracker should keep surfacing until a human signs off
+            # (e.g. adding the new build to the GitHub issue version dropdown,
+            # release notes, closing out the milestone). So keep emitting the
+            # HIGHEST shipped SR as mode='shipped'. The workflow consumes this as
+            # REFRESH-ONLY: it refreshes the tracker issue while it stays open and
+            # never re-creates it once a human closes it — implementing
+            # "update until closed manually" without resurrecting a closed tracker.
+            # Lower (older) shipped SRs stay retired.
+            if ($branchPatch -eq $highestShippedPatch) {
+                $recent = Get-RecentCommitCount -Ref $branch -Days $ActivityWindowDays
+                $tracker = New-Tracker -Major $Major -SrNumber $sr -Mode 'shipped' `
+                    -BranchName $branch -SurveyRef $branch -PriorSrBranch $null `
+                    -PriorShippedPatch $highestShippedPatch -PriorShippedTag $highestShippedTag `
+                    -ExpectedPatch $branchPatch -ExpectedTag $expectedTag `
+                    -HasRecentActivityCount $recent
+                $trackers.Add($tracker)
+                Write-Host "  -> shipped SR tracker (refresh-until-closed): SR$sr (patch=$branchPatch, tag $expectedTag exists, recent=$recent)" -ForegroundColor Yellow
+            } else {
+                Write-Host "  -> SR$sr branch '$branch' patch=$branchPatch already shipped (tag $expectedTag exists)" -ForegroundColor DarkGray
+            }
         }
     }
 

.github/skills/release-readiness/scripts/Get-PreviewReadiness.ps1

@@ -156,6 +156,14 @@ if ([string]::IsNullOrWhiteSpace($SurveyRef)) {
     $SurveyRef = if ($Mode -eq 'candidate') { $mainBranch } else { $Branch }
 }
 
+# Human-readable label for the daily-flow merge-up CHAIN that feeds the survey
+# ref. The preview lane is a two-hop chain: main → net<N>.0 → previewN. An
+# in-flight preview surveys previewN, so BOTH hops feed it (main → net<N>.0 →
+# previewN). A candidate's survey ref IS net<N>.0, so the chain it sees is the
+# single main → net<N>.0 hop. Used for the merge-up check Area, the high-priority
+# blurb, and the carve-out list (which must stay string-equal to the check Area).
+$mergeUpChainLabel = if ($Mode -eq 'candidate') { "main → $SurveyRef" } else { "main → $mainBranch → $SurveyRef" }
+
 # Canonical tracker key. Default matches Find-Trackers' New-PreviewTracker.
 if ([string]::IsNullOrWhiteSpace($TrackerKey)) {
     $TrackerKey = "net$majorVersion-preview$previewNumber"
@@ -798,20 +806,33 @@ function Get-CategorizedPullRequests {
     $maestroPRs = @($allReleasePRs | Where-Object { $_.author -and $_.author.login -match "dotnet-maestro" -and ($p0PrNumbers -notcontains $_.number) })
 
     # Non-P/0, non-Maestro humans, split by scope.
-    $targetHumanPRsRaw = @($TargetPRs | Where-Object { -not ($_.author -and $_.author.login -match "dotnet-maestro") -and ($p0PrNumbers -notcontains $_.number) })
-    $inflightHumanPRs = @($InflightPRs | Where-Object { -not ($_.author -and $_.author.login -match "dotnet-maestro") })
-
-    # 3. Merge-up: non-P/0, non-Maestro target PRs. MAUI convention:
-    #   - head ref like `merge/main-to-net11.0` or `merge/preview4-to-net11.0`
-    #   - title like "[automated] Merge branch 'main' => 'net11.0'"
-    $mergeUpPRs = @($targetHumanPRsRaw | Where-Object {
+    $targetHumanPRsRaw   = @($TargetPRs   | Where-Object { -not ($_.author -and $_.author.login -match "dotnet-maestro") -and ($p0PrNumbers -notcontains $_.number) })
+    $inflightHumanPRsRaw = @($InflightPRs | Where-Object { -not ($_.author -and $_.author.login -match "dotnet-maestro") })
+
+    # 3. Merge-up: non-P/0, non-Maestro PRs from BOTH hops of the daily-flow chain
+    #    that feeds the survey ref. The preview lane chains main → net<N>.0 →
+    #    previewN, so a stuck merge-up at EITHER hop starves the release of
+    #    upstream fixes:
+    #      - net<N>.0 → previewN  (base = survey ref)      — from target PRs
+    #      - main → net<N>.0      (base = inflight branch)  — from inflight PRs
+    #    Both are hoisted to high priority rather than the second hop being buried
+    #    as generic inflight-queue noise (the #36085 scenario). In candidate mode
+    #    the inflight set is empty, so only the single base=net<N>.0 hop is seen —
+    #    no double counting across modes.
+    #    MAUI convention:
+    #      - head ref like `merge/main-to-net11.0` or `merge/preview4-to-net11.0`
+    #      - title like "[automated] Merge branch 'main' => 'net11.0'"
+    $allHumanPRs = @($targetHumanPRsRaw) + @($inflightHumanPRsRaw)
+    $mergeUpPRs = @($allHumanPRs | Where-Object {
         ($_.headRefName -and $_.headRefName -match '^merge/.+-to-') -or
         ($_.title -and $_.title -match '^\[automated\] Merge branch')
     })
     $mergeUpPrNumbers = @($mergeUpPRs | ForEach-Object { $_.number })
 
-    # 4. Generic-human (target) = the remainder, counted/listed once.
-    $targetHumanPRs = @($targetHumanPRsRaw | Where-Object { $mergeUpPrNumbers -notcontains $_.number })
+    # 4. Generic-human (target) and inflight-human = the remainders, with merge-up
+    #    PRs removed from BOTH so a hoisted merge-up is never also listed below.
+    $targetHumanPRs   = @($targetHumanPRsRaw   | Where-Object { $mergeUpPrNumbers -notcontains $_.number })
+    $inflightHumanPRs = @($inflightHumanPRsRaw | Where-Object { $mergeUpPrNumbers -notcontains $_.number })
 
     return [PSCustomObject]@{
         P0Prs            = $p0Prs
@@ -1217,9 +1238,9 @@ if ($p1Issues.Count -gt 0) {
 }
 
 if ($mergeUpPRs.Count -gt 0) {
-    $checks += New-Check -Area "Merge-up PRs (main → $SurveyRef)" -Status "BLOCKED" -Details "$($mergeUpPRs.Count) open merge-up PR(s). See 🔴 High-priority items at top. Stuck merge-up PRs block daily flow and accumulate conflicts." -NextAction "Resolve and merge each before shipping."
+    $checks += New-Check -Area "Merge-up PRs ($mergeUpChainLabel)" -Status "BLOCKED" -Details "$($mergeUpPRs.Count) open merge-up PR(s) in the ``$mergeUpChainLabel`` daily-flow chain. See 🔴 High-priority items at top. A stuck merge-up at any hop accumulates conflicts and starves the release of upstream fixes." -NextAction "Resolve and merge each before shipping."
 } else {
-    $checks += New-Check -Area "Merge-up PRs (main → $SurveyRef)" -Status "READY" -Details "No open merge-up PRs from ``main`` → ``$SurveyRef``." -NextAction "Continue monitoring."
+    $checks += New-Check -Area "Merge-up PRs ($mergeUpChainLabel)" -Status "READY" -Details "No open merge-up PRs in the ``$mergeUpChainLabel`` daily-flow chain." -NextAction "Continue monitoring."
 }
 
 if ($kbeIssues.Count -gt 0) {
@@ -1423,10 +1444,10 @@ if ($nightlyFeedBanner) {
 #      de-prioritized) before shipping.
 #   3. Maestro dependency-flow PRs — open Maestro PRs against the survey ref.
 #      A stuck Maestro PR blocks all upstream dependency flow into this branch.
-#   4. Merge-up PRs (main → survey ref) — daily-flow sync PRs whose head ref
+#   4. Merge-up PRs (upstream → survey ref) — daily-flow sync PRs whose head ref
 #      matches `merge/...-to-...` or title starts with "[automated] Merge branch".
 #      A stuck merge-up PR accumulates conflicts and starves the release branch
-#      of new fixes from main.
+#      of new fixes from upstream (main on the SR lane, net11.0 on the preview lane).
 # Each item is itemized (one row per issue/PR) so the captain can see exactly
 # what's outstanding without drilling into the per-category PR tables below.
 $highPriorityRows = New-Object System.Collections.Generic.List[hashtable]
@@ -1461,8 +1482,19 @@ foreach ($pr in $maestroPRs) {
 }
 foreach ($pr in $mergeUpPRs) {
     $action = Get-PRAction -PR $pr
+    # Name the specific hop from the PR's base: a survey-ref-based merge-up is the
+    # net<N>.0 → previewN hop; an inflight-based one (base = net<N>.0) is the
+    # main → net<N>.0 hop. In candidate mode the survey ref IS net<N>.0, so a
+    # base=net<N>.0 PR is the main → net<N>.0 hop (guarded by the candidate check).
+    $leg = if ($Mode -ne 'candidate' -and $pr.baseRefName -eq $SurveyRef) {
+        "$mainBranch → $SurveyRef"
+    } elseif ($pr.baseRefName -eq $mainBranch) {
+        "main → $mainBranch"
+    } else {
+        "merge-up"
+    }
     [void]$highPriorityRows.Add(@{
-        kind = "🔀 Merge-up PR (main → $SurveyRef)"
+        kind = "🔀 Merge-up PR ($leg)"
         link = "[#$($pr.number)]($($pr.url))"
         title = $pr.title
         actor = "base ``$($pr.baseRefName)``, $($action.Age)d old"
@@ -1473,7 +1505,7 @@ foreach ($pr in $mergeUpPRs) {
 if ($highPriorityRows.Count -gt 0) {
     [void]$md.AppendLine("## 🔴 High-priority items — $($highPriorityRows.Count) item(s)")
     [void]$md.AppendLine("")
-    [void]$md.AppendLine("_P/0 issues, P/0 PRs, Maestro PRs, and ``main`` → ``$SurveyRef`` merge-up PRs. Resolve these before treating the release as ready._")
+    [void]$md.AppendLine("_P/0 issues, P/0 PRs, Maestro PRs, and merge-up PRs in the ``$mergeUpChainLabel`` daily-flow chain. Resolve these before treating the release as ready._")
     [void]$md.AppendLine("")
     [void]$md.AppendLine("| Kind | Item | Title | Context | Next action |")
     [void]$md.AppendLine("|------|------|-------|---------|-------------|")
@@ -1493,7 +1525,7 @@ $highPriorityCheckAreas = @(
     'P/0 priority blockers',
     'P/0 release-branch PRs',
     'Maestro PRs',
-    "Merge-up PRs (main → $SurveyRef)"
+    "Merge-up PRs ($mergeUpChainLabel)"
 )
 $blockingChecks = @($checks | Where-Object {
     $_.Status -eq 'BLOCKED' -and -not ($highPriorityCheckAreas -contains $_.Area)