docs(lost-substrate): inventory ledger 2026-04-29 — read-only audit prerequisite

docs/lost-substrate/inventory-ledger-2026-04-29.md

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+---
+Scope: Read-only inventory ledger for lost-substrate audit. Generated as the prerequisite step before any destructive action (branch deletion, worktree pruning, hard reset).
+Attribution: Aaron 2026-04-29 status-check question via Amara-translated multi-AI converged stance — *"When the factory has too many unknowns, do not choose a fix. Build the inventory ledger."*
+Operational status: research-grade
+Lifecycle status: active
+Non-fusion disclaimer: This is a snapshot in time, not a continuous metric. Counts will drift as PRs land and worktrees are pruned. Re-run on cadence per B-0090.
+---
+
+# Lost-substrate inventory ledger — 2026-04-29
+
+## Why this ledger exists
+
+Aaron's 2026-04-29 status-check surfaced three real gaps:
+
+1. 0/0/0 LFG ↔ AceHack divergence not satisfied (145 ahead / 562 behind)
+2. Trajectory rules filed but mostly not automated
+3. 284 gone-upstream branches + 57 locked worktrees not drained
+
+Multi-AI converged stance (Aaron forwarding Amara): *"Do not
+forward-sync 562 commits first. Do not delete branches/worktrees
+first. Do not create new doctrine. First build the inventory
+ledger."*
+
+This ledger is that prerequisite step. Read-only audit. No
+destructive action authorized by this file.
+
+## Hard stop rules (binding)
+
+```text
+1. No destructive branch/worktree action until classification
+   ledger exists.
+2. No hard reset while UNKNOWN lost-substrate candidates remain.
+3. [gone] upstream does NOT mean safe to delete.
+4. locked worktree does NOT mean broken.
+5. ahead/behind count does NOT equal content-loss surface.
+```
+
+GitHub compare API is diagnostic, not a reset/safety decision.
+`git fetch --prune` cleans stale REMOTE-TRACKING refs only;
+local branch decisions need separate classification.
+
+## Top-level counts (snapshot 2026-04-29)
+
+### LFG ↔ AceHack divergence
+
+```text
+status:     diverged
+ahead_by:   145 (AceHack vs LFG main; in-flight feature work)
+behind_by:  562 (AceHack vs LFG main; forward-sync gap)
+```
+
+Ahead/behind is a commit-graph metric. Real reset-readiness
+depends on **content-loss surface**, not commit count.
+Recomputing the content-loss surface is downstream of this
+ledger's classification work.
+
+### Worktrees
+
+```text
+total:           58
+active:          1   (current main worktree)
+locked:          57  (preserved candidates; do NOT prune blindly)
+unlocked:        0
+```
+
+### Local branches
+
+```text
+total:                          869
+BRANCH_HAS_OPEN_PR:             27   (in-flight; do not touch)
+BRANCH_GONE_UPSTREAM:           284  (upstream removed; needs classification)
+BRANCH_TRACKING_REMOTE:         406  (still tracking remote; classify)
+BRANCH_NO_UPSTREAM:             152  (no upstream; local-only refs)
+```
+
+## Worktree bucket schema (per Amara's converged refinement)
+
+| Bucket | Definition | This snapshot |
+|---|---|---|
+| WORKTREE_ACTIVE | Current main worktree | 1 |
+| WORKTREE_STALE_BUT_PRESENT | Unlocked + branch landed elsewhere | 0 |
+| WORKTREE_LOCKED_PRESERVE | Locked + no live PR + reason unknown — preserve until classified | 57 |
+| WORKTREE_PRUNABLE_METADATA_ONLY | git worktree list --porcelain says prunable, no payload | TBD (need git worktree list --porcelain analysis) |
+| WORKTREE_NEEDS_RECOVERY | Branch carries unique substrate not on main | TBD per-worktree audit |
+| WORKTREE_OBSOLETE_AFTER_PROOF | Classified as ALREADY-COVERED with explicit lineage | TBD per-worktree audit |
+
+Per Git's official `git worktree` docs: `lock` prevents
+pruning/moving/deletion; `remove` requires force-twice for
+locked worktrees. Locked worktrees are PRESERVED candidates
+by default.
+
+## Branch bucket schema (per Amara's converged refinement)
+
+| Bucket | Definition | This snapshot |
+|---|---|---|
+| BRANCH_MERGED_TO_MAIN | Branch tip is reachable from main; safe to delete | TBD via `git branch --merged main` |
+| BRANCH_HAS_OPEN_PR | Branch has an open PR; preserve | 27 |
+| BRANCH_CONTENT_ON_MAIN | Branch tip ≠ main HEAD but content-equivalent (per content-classification) | TBD per-branch audit |
+| BRANCH_CONTENT_ON_OTHER_BRANCH | Branch content lives on another branch (e.g., a successor branch) | TBD per-branch audit |
+| BRANCH_NEEDS_RECOVERY | Branch carries unique substrate not yet integrated | TBD per-branch audit |
+| BRANCH_OBSOLETE | Branch explicitly retired with rationale | TBD per-branch audit |
+| BRANCH_UNKNOWN | Not yet classified | 842 (most branches; default until classified) |
+
+Per Git's official `git branch` docs: `[gone]` means the
+upstream-tracked remote ref no longer exists; it does NOT
+imply local content safety. Classification before deletion.
+
+## Sample of unclassified-substrate branches
+
+These are the first 10 of each major bucket. Full listings in
+`/tmp/branches-for-each-ref.txt` (working-copy snapshot only).
+
+### BRANCH_GONE_UPSTREAM (sample)
+
+```text
+absorb/amara-conversation-2025-08-first-chunk
+absorb/amara-conversation-2025-09-weekly-chunks
+absorb/amara-conversation-2026-04-weekly-chunks
+add-grok-cli-capability-map-sketch
+agent-claim-protocol-git-native
+agents/edit-1-absorbs-staged-not-ratified
+alignment/edit-2-sd-9-agreement-is-signal-not-proof
+artifact-c/tools-alignment-archive-header-lint
+aurora/absorb-amara-5th-ferry-zeta-ksk-aurora-validation
+aurora/absorb-amara-6th-ferry-muratori-pattern-mapping
+```
+
+These ALL look substrate-bearing (Amara conversation absorbs,
+factory-doctrine edits, Aurora ferry absorbs). NONE should be
+deleted without per-branch content-equivalence classification.
+
+### BRANCH_NO_UPSTREAM (sample)
+
+```text
+heads/acehack/tick-history-2026-04-27T23-58
+audit-607
+audit-608
+audit-610
+audit-612
+```
+
+These look like local-only audit / tick-history branches; many
+may be safely retired. Still requires classification before
+delete.
+
+## Open-PR mapping (top 10 of 27)
+
+```text
+#755 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0500Z-shard
+#754 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0455Z-shard
+#753 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0450Z-shard
+#752 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0445Z-shard
+#747 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0420Z-shard
+#746 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0415Z-shard
+#745 tick-history/2026-04-29-tick-0410Z-shard
+... (and ~20 more, mostly tick-history shard PRs from this session)
+```
+
+These 27 open PRs are the queue the diagnostic-drain pattern
+is currently working through. PR-queue-drain composes with
+this ledger but is separate work.
+
+## Recommended next safe actions (NOT executed by this ledger)
+
+In order of safety + leverage:
+
+1. **Run `git worktree list --porcelain`** + classify each
+   locked worktree's branch into the bucket schema. Cross-
+   reference each branch tip against main's tree using
+   content-equivalence (per the metric ladder in
+   `memory/feedback_reset_readiness_metric_ladder_content_loss_surface_amara_2026_04_28.md`).
+2. **Run `git branch --merged main`** to identify
+   BRANCH_MERGED_TO_MAIN bucket; these are deletion-safe.
+3. **For BRANCH_GONE_UPSTREAM with substrate-y names**
+   (Amara conversation absorbs, Aurora ferry absorbs,
+   alignment edits): manual content-equivalence classification.
+4. **Compute LFG-side content-loss surface** by running the
+   metric ladder on the 562 commits LFG main is ahead by:
+   most should be ALREADY-COVERED via different commit paths,
+   but some may be NEEDS-FORWARD-SYNC.
+5. **Only after** the above produces a clean classification:
+   destructive actions become safe.
+
+## Top 5 next recovery / audit targets (within authority)
+
+Picked by leverage (most uncertainty per branch removed):
+
+1. **Locked worktree audit** — sample 5 worktrees per tick;
+   classify each into the bucket schema; build out the
+   ledger over multiple ticks.
+2. **`git branch --merged main`** — identifies safe-to-delete
+   branches in one command; produces an immediate
+   BRANCH_MERGED_TO_MAIN bucket.
+3. **Cross-reference branches against open PRs** — already
+   done in this snapshot (27 BRANCH_HAS_OPEN_PR).
+4. **Content-equivalence audit on substrate-y branch names**
+   (Amara, Aurora, alignment) — small batch per tick.
+5. **Defer LFG-side 562-commit forward-sync analysis** until
+   the local branch/worktree classification is well-progressed.
+
+## Composition with existing substrate
+
+- **B-0090** (cadenced lost-substrate audit) — this ledger is
+  B-0090's first concrete cycle. Future cycles re-generate
+  on cadence.
+- **`memory/feedback_reset_readiness_metric_ladder_content_loss_surface_amara_2026_04_28.md`**
+  — the metric ladder this ledger feeds into.
+- **Task #264** (Recover 19 LOST branches) — overlaps with
+  BRANCH_GONE_UPSTREAM work; re-route those 19 into this
+  ledger's bucket schema.
+- **Task #287** (Resource/costs monitoring) — separate
+  visibility surface; this ledger doesn't address it.
+
+## What this ledger does NOT do
+
+- Does NOT delete any branch.
+- Does NOT prune any worktree.
+- Does NOT forward-sync any LFG commits to AceHack.
+- Does NOT hard-reset main.
+- Does NOT classify individual branches/worktrees beyond the
+  top-level bucket counts.
+- Does NOT recompute the content-loss surface (downstream of
+  per-branch classification).
+
+This ledger is the prerequisite. The classification work is
+follow-up; the destructive action is downstream of
+classification.
+
+## Re-generation cadence
+
+Re-run on cadence (e.g., weekly or after major queue events).
+Each cycle:
+
+1. Run the inventory commands.
+2. Classify deltas since last cycle.
+3. Mark any newly-classified buckets.
+4. Update `Last surfaced` in the status header.
+5. Append observations to a new ledger file
+   (`docs/lost-substrate/inventory-ledger-YYYY-MM-DD.md`)
+   rather than mutating this one.
+
+## The keeper rule
+
+> *When the factory has too many unknowns, do not choose a
+> fix. Build the inventory ledger.* (Amara via Aaron, 2026-04-29)