budget: capture first cost snapshot + bootstrap latest-report.md (task #287)

docs/budget-history/latest-report.md

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+# Latest cost projection — auto-generated
+
+**Generated:** `2026-04-26T14:37:11Z`
+**Factory git SHA:** `a7fb1dbd47b020ffb56e0a63935dc70dd7000aec`
+**Source:** `tools/budget/daily-cost-report.sh` (wraps snapshot-burn.sh + project-runway.sh)
+
+This file is **OVERWRITTEN** on each daily run. Historical snapshots live in
+`docs/budget-history/snapshots.jsonl` (append-only); historical projections
+can be reconstructed from any snapshot subset via `tools/budget/project-runway.sh`.
+
+---
+
+## Projection text
+
+```text
+Budget projection — three-repo-split Stages 1-4
+================================================
+
+Evidence source:   docs/budget-history/snapshots.jsonl
+Samples (N):       1
+First snapshot:    2026-04-26T13:57:01Z
+Latest snapshot:   2026-04-26T13:57:01Z
+Latest factory SHA: 744e268dd6f57ba230deab8d77616ae19e38cf2f
+
+Latest state
+------------
+  Copilot plan:    business
+  Copilot seats:   1
+  Actions total_duration_ms (last 20 runs, all repos):  513000
+  Actions billable_ms cumulative:  0
+
+Projection parameters
+---------------------
+  Estimated extra PRs for Stages 1-4:  20
+  Copilot Business seat rate (USD/mo): $19
+  Actions free-tier allowance (ms):    180000000
+  Assumed migration span (days):       30
+
+Projection
+----------
+  Per-PR Actions ms:         insufficient data (N<2 or no duration delta)
+  Projected Actions ms:      unavailable
+  Gate status:               cannot project — accumulate more snapshots
+  Copilot projected USD (single span):           $19
+
+Human-maintainer-decision surface
+----------------------
+  N=1; BACKLOG row requires N>=3 across >=2 LFG merges before
+  projection is considered decision-ready. Keep accumulating.
+
+Caveats
+-------
+  * recent_merged is a rolling-window count (last 10 closed PRs),
+    not a cumulative counter. Per-PR-ms uses it as a proxy —
+    introduces error when the 20-run window doesn't roll forward
+    between snapshots. A cumulative PR counter would be a
+    substrate improvement (BACKLOG follow-up).
+  * last_billable_ms on public repos is typically 0 (included
+    minutes). Projection still meaningful for macOS runs and
+    any future private-repo work.
+  * Copilot projection assumes constant seat count over the span.
+    Seat-count changes require rerunning projection.
+```
+
+---
+
+## How to read this
+
+- **`Actions billable_ms cumulative`** — cumulative GitHub-Actions billable runtime across captured snapshots. On public repos this is typically 0 (included minutes); meaningful for macOS / private-repo / Enterprise-plan accounts.
+- **`Per-PR Actions ms (naive)`** — rolling-window estimate of per-merged-PR Actions cost. Caveats in the projection text below; treat as proxy until `N \geq 3` cumulative snapshots exist.
+- **`Actions fit`** — whether projected Stages 1-4 burn fits the configured free-tier allowance. If `EXCEEDS`, the gate-conditions section names escape valves.
+- **`Copilot projected USD`** — assumed-30-day span at the current seat count and rate. Re-run with `--copilot-rate` to model rate changes.
+
+---
+
+## Source data
+
+- Snapshots: `docs/budget-history/snapshots.jsonl`
+- Methodology: `docs/budget-history/README.md`
+- Wrapper: `tools/budget/daily-cost-report.sh` (this run)
+- Capture script: `tools/budget/snapshot-burn.sh`
+- Projection script: `tools/budget/project-runway.sh`

docs/budget-history/snapshots.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"ts":"2026-04-26T13:57:01Z","factory_git_sha":"744e268dd6f57ba230deab8d77616ae19e38cf2f","org":"Lucent-Financial-Group","note":null,"copilot_billing":{"seat_breakdown":{"pending_invitation":0,"pending_cancellation":0,"added_this_cycle":1,"total":1,"active_this_cycle":1,"inactive_this_cycle":0},"seat_management_setting":"assign_selected","plan_type":"business","public_code_suggestions":"allow","ide_chat":"enabled","cli":"enabled","platform_chat":"enabled"},"repos":[{"repo":"Lucent-Financial-Group/Zeta","agg":{"total_runs":20,"total_duration_ms":513000,"billable_ubuntu_ms":0,"billable_macos_ms":0,"billable_windows_ms":0},"pr":{"recent_merged":5,"last_merged_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:29Z"},"last_20_runs":[{"id":24958345708,"name":"Copilot code review","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:13Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:27Z"},{"id":24958344924,"name":"CodeQL","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:10Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:32Z"},{"id":24958344908,"name":"gate","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:10Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:14Z"},{"id":24958344765,"name":"Automatic Dependency Submission (NuGet)","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:10Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:54Z"},{"id":24958344331,"name":"Code Quality: PR #614","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:08Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:13Z"},{"id":24958344166,"name":".github/workflows/github-settings-drift.yml","conclusion":"failure","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:08Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:08Z"},{"id":24958324676,"name":"Copilot code review","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:09Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:20Z"},{"id":24958323549,"name":"gate","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:06Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:09Z"},{"id":24958323544,"name":"CodeQL","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:06Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:27Z"},{"id":24958322995,"name":"Code Quality: PR #613","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:04Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:54Z"},{"id":24958318853,"name":".github/workflows/github-settings-drift.yml","conclusion":"failure","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:52Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:52Z"},{"id":24958318721,"name":"Automatic Dependency Submission (NuGet)","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:51Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:36Z"},{"id":24958316252,"name":"Automatic Dependency Submission (NuGet)","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:43Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:23Z"},{"id":24958313052,"name":"gate","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:32Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:36Z"},{"id":24958313042,"name":"CodeQL","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:32Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:44Z"},{"id":24958313038,"name":"scorecard","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:32Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:55:08Z"},{"id":24958312685,"name":".github/workflows/github-settings-drift.yml","conclusion":"failure","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:31Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:31Z"},{"id":24958312663,"name":"Code Quality: Push on main","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:31Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:56:16Z"},{"id":24958285907,"name":"Copilot code review","conclusion":"success","run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:53:13Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:54:43Z"},{"id":24958285505,"name":"gate","conclusion":null,"run_started_at":"2026-04-26T13:53:12Z","updated_at":"2026-04-26T13:53:15Z"}]}],"scope_coverage":{"has_read_org":true,"has_admin_org":false,"covered":["copilot-seats","actions-runs-per-run-timing"],"missing_requires_admin_org":["actions-billing","packages-billing","shared-storage-billing"]}}

tools/budget/daily-cost-report.sh

@@ -131,7 +131,6 @@ $projection
 - Wrapper: \`tools/budget/daily-cost-report.sh\` (this run)
 - Capture script: \`tools/budget/snapshot-burn.sh\`
 - Projection script: \`tools/budget/project-runway.sh\`
-
 EOF
 
 echo "==> wrote $report_path"

tools/budget/project-runway.sh

@@ -214,7 +214,7 @@ cat <<OUT
 Budget projection — three-repo-split Stages 1-4
 ================================================
 
-Evidence source:   $file
+Evidence source:   ${file#"$repo_root"/}
 Samples (N):       $n
 First snapshot:    $first_ts
 Latest snapshot:   $last_ts