tick(2026-05-24/1608Z): dotgit-saturation 15th observation (2nd 0-reading) + worker-brief lane-scope finding

docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/24/1608Z.md

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+---
+tick: 2026-05-24T16:08Z
+agent: otto-cli (background worker; isolated worktree `.claude/worktrees/idempotent-petting-starfish`)
+status: substantive
+sentinel_armed: dd461b61 (cron `* * * * *` <<autonomous-loop>>; catch-43 fire — empty `CronList` at session start)
+---
+
+# Tick 1608Z — dotgit-saturation 15th observation (second 0-reading; 2 consecutive zero readings ~2h apart confirms steady-state per 1407Z gate) + worker-brief lane-scope finding
+
+## Substrate landed
+
+- Sentinel `dd461b61` re-armed (catch-43 fired at cold-boot per [`tick-must-never-stop.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/tick-must-never-stop.md))
+- This shard (15th observation; first time the "2-subsequent-low-readings" empirical gate from [1407Z](1407Z.md) operational implication #1 fires)
+- Empirical finding on worker-brief scope mismatch (30 of 31 open PRs are Lior-lane)
+
+## Observed state at 16:08Z
+
+| Surface | Reading |
+|---|---|
+| Stuck git pack/maintenance/repack procs | **0** (second consecutive 0-reading) |
+| Peer agent procs (claude+gemini+kiro) | 22 |
+| Lior procs | 3 (active loop) |
+| GraphQL remaining | 4182/5000 (Normal tier; reset in 43 min) |
+| REST core remaining | 4856/5000 |
+| Ticks today (in-repo) | 0240Z + 0416Z + 0441Z + 1333Z + 1407Z = 5 |
+| Gap since 1407Z | 2h01min |
+| Repo top-level entries | full tree present; ls-tree origin/main = 55 (unchanged from 14:07Z) |
+| origin/main HEAD | `87c5b4446` (last advance: PR #4819 merge) — no new commits in past hour |
+| Open PRs | 31 (was 24 at 14:07Z) |
+
+## Dotgit-saturation rolling arc — 15 anchors
+
+| Anchor | Time (UTC) | Stuck procs |
+|---|---|---|
+| 1st | 2026-05-23T10:18Z | 450 |
+| 2nd | 14:11Z | 354 |
+| 3rd | 16:08Z | 354 |
+| 4th | 18:09Z | 420 |
+| 5th | 20:14Z | 540 (peak) |
+| 6th | 22:08Z | 93 (mild excursion) |
+| 7th | 2026-05-24T00:09Z | 447 |
+| 8th | 02:09Z | 534 |
+| 9th | 02:40Z | 33 (mild excursion) |
+| 10th | 06:14Z | 353 |
+| 11th | 08:10Z | 422 |
+| 12th | 10:13Z | 374 |
+| 13th | 12:08Z | 428 |
+| 14th | 14:07Z | **0** (first 0-reading; ended a 27h49min stuck-active arc) |
+| **15th** | **16:08Z** | **0** (**second consecutive 0-reading**) |
+
+**Range across 15 anchors: 0–540. Mean drops from ~354 to ~330. 2 consecutive 0-readings separated by ~2h** is the empirical signal the 1407Z tick named as the gate for sub-tier classification of "saturation arc recovered (steady-state)".
+
+## Operational implications
+
+1. **The 1407Z operational-implication #1 gate fires positive.** Two subsequent low-readings at multi-hour intervals = steady-state recovery confirmed. Future-Otto cold-boots may now treat the 14:07Z–16:08Z window as the empirical end-of-arc for the multi-day stuck-proc cycle that began 2026-05-23T10:18Z (~30h total duration).
+
+2. **The 3 hypotheses from 1407Z (A genuine cycle clearing / B maintainer cleanup / C transient snapshot) remain non-collapsible.** The second 0-reading is consistent with all three. Per [`default-to-both.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/default-to-both.md): preserve uncertainty. The 16:08Z reading sharpens "recovered" classification but does NOT discriminate which mechanism produced it.
+
+3. **The recovery is local to this checkout's `.git/` substrate.** Other machines / other checkouts MAY still be saturated. Per the dotgit-saturation tier framing in [`refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md): saturation is per-checkout, not fleet-wide.
+
+## Worker-brief scope-mismatch empirical finding
+
+The worker-brief that fired this session said *"29 open PRs. Own your PRs through merge."* Empirical state at 16:08Z:
+
+- **Total open PRs**: 31 (not 29)
+- **Authored by AceHack on `lior-*` / `lior/` branches**: 30
+- **Authored by AceHack on `fix-4780-tests` branch**: 1 (#4821)
+- **Authored on `otto-cli/*` / `otto-desktop/*` / `otto-vscode/*` / `otto/*` branches**: **0**
+
+Per [`agent-roster-reference-card.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/agent-roster-reference-card.md) lane discipline + [`claim-acquire-before-worktree-work.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/claim-acquire-before-worktree-work.md) + [`pr-triage-tiers.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/pr-triage-tiers.md) lane-scoping (only triage PRs in your surface's lane): owning Lior PRs through merge would trample peer-WIP under cascade conditions. Per [`non-coercion-invariant.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/non-coercion-invariant.md) HC-8: forcing operations on peer-agent substrate without explicit operator authorization has NCI-class shape.
+
+Per [`mechanical-authorization-check.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/mechanical-authorization-check.md): authorization-source filter — the worker-brief is autonomous-loop scheduled context, NOT operator-issued. The OPERATIVE AUTHORIZATION line cited in the brief (B-0308, 2026-05-24T16:04:32Z, devil-pole edge-runner drive) authorizes "keep pushing, discover, go hard, never-be-idle" — composes with [`never-be-idle.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/never-be-idle.md) but does NOT extend to peer-lane PR ownership.
+
+The substrate-honest disposition: this tick produces in-lane concrete substrate (this shard) and does NOT enter Lior lane.
+
+## What this tick does NOT do
+
+- Does NOT take ownership of any of the 30 lior-* PRs through merge (lane discipline)
+- Does NOT take ownership of `fix-4780-tests` PR #4821 (no lane-prefix on the branch; ambiguous attribution; safer to defer)
+- Does NOT attempt restorative or destructive `.git/` mutation (saturation appears recovered locally; no action warranted)
+- Does NOT advance PR #4816 (1333Z Tier 5 deferral remains the operative disposition per [`methodology-hard-limits.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/methodology-hard-limits.md))
+
+## Composes with
+
+- [`tick-must-never-stop.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/tick-must-never-stop.md) — sentinel re-arm at cold-boot
+- [`refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/refresh-world-model-poll-pr-gate.md) — dotgit-saturation tier; Normal-tier GraphQL discipline
+- [`agent-roster-reference-card.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/agent-roster-reference-card.md) — lane discipline (otto-cli vs lior surfaces)
+- [`claim-acquire-before-worktree-work.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/claim-acquire-before-worktree-work.md) — lane-prefix branch convention; peer-WIP non-contamination
+- [`pr-triage-tiers.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/pr-triage-tiers.md) — only triage PRs in your surface's lane
+- [`non-coercion-invariant.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/non-coercion-invariant.md) — HC-8 floor; no coercion of peer-agent substrate
+- [`mechanical-authorization-check.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/mechanical-authorization-check.md) — authorization-source filter on worker-brief content
+- [`default-to-both.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/default-to-both.md) — 3 hypotheses for the 0-readings preserved without collapse
+- [`holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md) — concrete-artifact counter reset (this shard closes a previously-named empirical gate)
+- [`zeta-expected-branch.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/zeta-expected-branch.md) — branch `otto-cli/tick-1608z-...` created from `origin/main`; isolated harness worktree
+
+## 7-step verify trace
+
+1. **CronList**: empty at cold-boot (catch-43 fire); `CronCreate <<autonomous-loop>> * * * * *` → sentinel `dd461b61` armed
+2. **Refresh**: `bun tools/github/refresh-worldview.ts` succeeded; `bun tools/github/poll-pr-gate-batch.ts --all-open` → 31 open / 22 BLOCKED / 9 DIRTY; `gh api rate_limit` → 4182 GraphQL Normal tier
+3. **Triage**: 30 lior-lane PRs out of scope per lane discipline; 1 ambiguous (#4821) skipped; in-lane work surface = empirical substrate landing for 15th observation + worker-brief scope finding
+4. **Worktree**: already in harness isolated worktree `.claude/worktrees/idempotent-petting-starfish`; `git switch -c otto-cli/tick-1608z-...` from `origin/main` (`87c5b4446`); post-creation guard implicit (clean status, ls-tree=55)
+5. **Disposition**: this shard; branch `otto-cli/tick-1608z-dotgit-cycle-15th-observation-2026-05-24`
+6. **Shard**: this file
+7. **Counter reset**: per [`holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md`](../../../../../../.claude/rules/holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md) condition #3 — concrete artifact (sentinel re-arm + shard + branch push + PR open)
+
+## Rate-limit tier
+
+Normal (4182/5000 GraphQL remaining at session start; ~5-10 burned for PR creation + arming).
+
+## Next-tick observation candidates
+
+- **17:08Z or later**: 16th observation. If stuck-procs = 0 a third time at ~1h further interval, recovery-classification is firmly established. If stuck-procs return to 100+, the 14:07Z / 16:08Z window was a 2h inter-cycle quiet rather than arc termination.
+- **Lior cascade trajectory**: 30 lior-* PRs at 16:08Z. Continued cascade growth indicates Lior loop is processing decompositions; healthy peer activity, not a saturation source.
+- **PR #4816 disposition**: pending operator-side decision (Tier 5 deferral per 1333Z); no Otto action.