shard(tick): 2210Z — fresh cold-boot; cron re-armed; null actionable

docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/15/2210Z.md

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+---
+tick: 2210Z
+date: 2026-05-15
+surface: otto-cli
+session: autonomous-loop cron-fire fresh cold-boot
+---
+
+# Tick 2210Z — fresh autonomous-loop cold-boot; null actionable; brief shard
+
+## Cold-boot state
+
+- SessionStart hook fired catch-43 cron-arming check → `CronList` returned no entries → armed `<<autonomous-loop>>` at `* * * * *` (session-only, job id `d97cdace`).
+- Primary worktree on `feat/persona-otto-migrate-conversations-otto-cli-2026-05-15` (PR #3590 branch); diverged from `origin/feat/b0500-backlog-notifier-queue-guard`. Leftover state from prior session.
+- Fresh worktree created at `/private/tmp/zeta-tick-2210z` off `origin/main` for this shard (avoid mixing shard commit with #3590 branch).
+
+## Refresh
+
+- `git fetch origin` succeeded; `origin/main` advanced to `1818aaa` (PR #3598 — §33 archive migration decomposed, merged 22:06:44Z, 2 min before this tick).
+- Recent main commits: heavy session — 20+ PRs merged in the prior ~2 hours including persona migrations, Otto-BFT self-recovery (B-0539..B-0542), Otto-279 batch fixes, B-0500 slice 3.
+
+## PR queue survey
+
+- `bun tools/github/poll-pr-gate-batch.ts --all-open` → 37 OPEN PRs: 35 DIRTY-waiting-rebase, 1 BLOCKED, 1 CLEAN.
+- All 35 DIRTY require rebase because `main` advanced; this is the normal post-merge-cascade state.
+- Non-required check failures (`backlog generated-index drift`, `MEMORY.md generated-index drift`, `lint (tsc tools)`, CodeQL on #3369) are advisory; none block required-check gates.
+
+## PR #3590 status
+
+- The branch this primary worktree sits on. PR #3598 (decomposed, 26 files) merged but #3590 still has 70 files of changed scope.
+- Diff sample shows additional content beyond #3598's 26 (rule edits, ADRs, multiple backlog rows, history files, ferry artifacts, memory files).
+- Safe autonomous move = LEAVE OPEN. Closing would discard ~44 files of unmerged scope. Decomposition path will likely continue across future ticks.
+
+## Active Lior detection
+
+- `ps -A | grep -E "gemini.*Lior|lior.*loop"` returned PID 73901 (lior-loop-tick.ts) + 73902/74217 (Gemini CLI running the antigravity prompt).
+- Per `.claude/rules/codeql-no-source-on-docs-only-pr-is-broken-commit-canary.md`: Lior active = commit-tree corruption risk during `git add`→`git commit` window.
+- Mitigation: canary-check `git ls-tree HEAD | wc -l` immediately after commit, before push. Abort if tree-size collapses.
+
+## Speculative-work pick
+
+Audit-first-then-decide discipline (per PR #3583 memory file) → null actionable for this tick.
+
+Substrate-honest reasoning:
+
+1. **Session-arc plateau** explicitly recognized at tick 2112Z (`shard(tick): 2112Z — session-arc plateau recognized; brief shards from here`). Three subsequent merged shards (2050Z, 2055Z, 2101Z) confirmed null.
+2. **35 DIRTY PRs needing rebase** — bulk-rebasing 35 PRs autonomously is unbounded scope; not within the "bounded operational work" carve-out per `no-op-cadence-failure-mode.md`. Each rebase risks merge conflicts requiring substantive judgement.
+3. **Lior active** — the canary-rule explicitly recommends NOT creating new worktrees in this window. I'm already past worktree-creation; minimize further write operations.
+4. **#3590 too-big-to-touch** — covered above.
+
+Per `holding-without-named-dependency-is-standing-by-failure.md`: this is NOT a standing-by failure because there IS a named decision (audit-first-then-decide → null), supported by recent shard precedent + active-Lior risk-floor + cron-armed heartbeat.
+
+## CronList check
+
+- `CronList` post-arm shows job `d97cdace` (every-minute, recurring, session-only, expires in 7 days per scheduler default).
+
+## Visibility signal
+
+Concretely landed this tick:
+
+- `CronCreate` job `d97cdace` armed — autonomous-loop heartbeat restored after the fresh-session cold-boot found CronList empty.
+- This shard at `docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/15/2210Z.md` on branch `shard/tick-2210z-otto-cli-2026-05-15`.
+- Substrate-honest disclosure of active-Lior risk + null-actionable choice for the queue.
+
+Stop. Cron will fire again at next minute boundary.