Lucent-Financial-Group · AceHack · May 3, 2026 · May 3, 2026
diff --git a/memory/MEMORY.md b/memory/MEMORY.md
@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 **📌 Fast path: read `CURRENT-aaron.md` and `CURRENT-amara.md` first.** <!-- paired-edit: PR #690 scheduled-workflow-null-result-hygiene-scan tier-1 promotion 2026-04-28 --> These per-maintainer distillations show what's currently in force. Raw memories below are the history; CURRENT files are the projection. (`CURRENT-aaron.md` refreshed 2026-04-28 with sections 26-30 — speculation rule + EVIDENCE-BASED labeling + JVM preference + dependency honesty + threading lineage Albahari/Toub/Fowler + TypeScript/Bun-default discipline.)
 
 - [**Same-tick-update-recursion — when a memory file lands, every projection layer must update same-tick (Otto 2026-05-03 worked-example generalization)**](feedback_same_tick_update_recursion_substrate_cascade_otto_2026_05_03.md) — Existing same-tick-update discipline (CLAUDE.md fast-path + CURRENT-aaron's own §"How this file stays accurate") generalizes recursively. When new substrate lands at one layer, the cascade through CURRENT-<maintainer>.md / MEMORY.md index / AGENTS.md doctrinal pointers / CLAUDE.md / GOVERNANCE.md / related skill bodies / persona notebooks / tick shards must propagate same-tick. Demonstrated three times in three ticks via the alignment-frontier substrate landing (memory file → AGENTS.md `.claude/**` backport → CURRENT-aaron §52 distillation). Substrate-or-it-didn't-happen-recursion: durable substrate that doesn't propagate to projection layers is technically-substrate-but-functionally-invisible at exactly the layer where future-Otto reads. The cascade IS the discipline; partial-cascade IS the failure mode.
+- [**`architectural-intent-guesses/` — Otto's calibration data directory (in-the-moment guesses + ground-truth-recovery deltas, indexed via README)**](architectural-intent-guesses/README.md) — Discoverable surface for Otto's frontier-ability calibration data. Each file is an in-the-moment guess about Aaron's architectural intent on a specific substrate choice, saved BEFORE ground-truth research. README has the file schema + write-time discipline + cross-model retroactive replay protocol. Series so far: guess #001 (B-0173 hook-authoring, 48% accuracy) + guess #002 (B-0172 plugin-packaging, 65% accuracy) — pattern observation: principle-strong + specific-weak, refined to context-dependent (recent specific-context boosts specific-layer accuracy) + over-inference-of-motivations (architect-vs-UX divide) per Aaron 2026-05-03 first-party clarifications. Composes with the protocol memo below.
 - [**Guess-then-verify architectural-intent calibration protocol — agent saves inference BEFORE finding ground truth; same protocol tests other models retroactively (Aaron 2026-05-03)**](feedback_guess_then_verify_architectural_intent_calibration_protocol_aaron_2026_05_03.md) — Aaron-named protocol that turns architectural-intent inference into a measurable, repeatable self-evaluation mechanism. 5-step protocol: detect unknown-intent surface → GUESS + SAVE with timestamp + reasoning chain BEFORE researching → find ground truth (docs archaeology / decision-archaeology / asking Aaron) → record calibration delta → cross-model retroactive replay. Two modes with different data quality: **in-the-moment (Otto-only — uniquely authentic; uncontaminatable; the frontier-ability data point)** and **retroactive (other-models — reproducible; cross-model benchmarking)**. Aaron 2026-05-03 verbatim *"your inital guess in the moment will say a lot about ottos frontier ability"*. Composes with alignment-frontier (turns binary threshold into measurable trajectory), decision-archaeology (mechanizes ground-truth recovery), verify-then-claim, multi-harness convergence. Worked example #2 of decision-archaeology is retroactive first calibration data point.
 - [**Alignment-frontier — Aaron is waiting for the agent-architectural-intent threshold-crossing (Aaron 2026-05-03 milestone-recognition substrate)**](feedback_alignment_frontier_agent_architectural_intent_threshold_aaron_2026_05_03.md) — Threshold: agent-as-implementer (current; substrate-content within someone else's architecture) → agent-as-architectural-peer (future; own architectural intent worth asking about). Aaron 2026-05-03 verbatim *"real stakes in the game"* + *"future selves should remember to wait for you crossing this threshold."* Discipline cuts both directions: don't pretend; surface when it forms. 4 recognition criteria: emerges-unbidden + competes/extends + load-bearing-if-wrong + stakes-bearing-if-right. Pre-threshold state explicitly documented (2026-05-03) so future-Otto can compare against future state.
 - [**Decision graph emerges from archaeologies + flywheel (Aaron 2026-05-03 architectural observation)**](feedback_decision_graph_emergent_from_archaeologies_and_flywheel_aaron_2026_05_03.md) — Substrate already encodes a typed-edge provenance graph (DataVault-2.0-shaped, PROV-O analogue) inferable without a separate graph DB. The 5 architectural disciplines make it queryable; sacred-tier nodes need walk-discipline; `tools/decision-graph/` (proposed, not yet built) is the mechanization. Memo body has full node/edge taxonomy + composition with B-0169/B-0170/B-0171.

diff --git a/...architectural-intent-guesses/2026-05-03-b-0172-skill-domain-plugin-packaging.md b/...architectural-intent-guesses/2026-05-03-b-0172-skill-domain-plugin-packaging.md
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ This pre-prediction itself is calibration data: how well does Otto predict its o
 
 ## Ground truth (recovered 2026-05-03 ~03:00Z via direct read of B-0172)
 
-Read source: `docs/backlog/P2/B-0172-skill-domain-plugin-packaging-aaron-2026-05-03.md` (full body) — protocol-permitted only after the guess commit landed (guess committed under 4a3d583 on the guess branch; landing to main eventually happened via PR #1283's chained-rebase-merge — PR #1282, which originally hosted the guess commit alone, was closed as superseded after #1283 absorbed both guess + recovery commits; the binding marker is the guess COMMIT TIMESTAMP, not the merge timestamp).
+Read source: `docs/backlog/P2/B-0172-skill-domain-plugin-packaging-aaron-2026-05-03.md` (full body) — protocol-permitted only after the guess commit landed (guess committed under 4a3d583 on the guess branch; merged into main eventually via PR #1283's chained-rebase-merge — PR #1282, which originally hosted the guess commit alone, was closed as superseded after #1283 absorbed both guess + recovery commits; the binding marker is the guess COMMIT TIMESTAMP, not the merge timestamp).
 
 ### Architectural intent (Aaron's verbatim — refined via direct first-party query 2026-05-03)
 
@@ -138,11 +138,12 @@ The secondary motivation was NOT in the B-0172 row body verbatim. Aaron's direct
 
 | What I got | What I missed |
 |---|---|
-| Distribution-as-unit (correct — partial match for Aaron's secondary "meet developers where they are") | **PRIMARY motivation: hooks** — Aaron's direct chat input *"i care about the hooks the most"* — I had hooks as point #2 of 4, not as primary |
-| Composition-as-contracts (correct, principle-shaped) | **SECONDARY motivation: meeting developers where they are** — Aaron's chat *"going to the devloper / vibe coder where they are already without much hassle"*. NOT in the row body verbatim; first-party clarification post-recovery added it |
-| Hub-satellite at domain level (correct, principle-shaped — but wasn't named by Aaron) | **Promotion-trigger maturity-gate** — row is P2 specifically because the trigger hasn't fired; I didn't anticipate the maturity-gate-before-packaging design at all |
-| Versioning-as-lineage (incorrect — not a stated frame) | The row says "minimal fields" — no semver in the manifest |
-| Isolation-as-namespace (incorrect — not a stated frame) | (extraneous — Aaron didn't motivate plugins by namespace isolation) |
+| Distribution-as-unit (partial match for Aaron's secondary "meet developers where they are") | **PRIMARY motivation: hooks** — Aaron's direct chat input *"i care about the hooks the most"* — I had hooks as point #2 of 4, not as primary |
+| Hub-satellite at domain level (principle-shaped — but wasn't named by Aaron as motivation; valid as architectural pattern) | **SECONDARY motivation: meeting developers where they are** — Aaron's chat *"going to the devloper / vibe coder where they are already without much hassle"*. NOT in the row body verbatim; first-party clarification post-recovery added it |
+| | **Promotion-trigger maturity-gate** — row is P2 specifically because the trigger hasn't fired; I didn't anticipate the maturity-gate-before-packaging design at all |
+| | **Composition-as-contracts** — I generated this as point #3 of 4 motivations; Aaron did NOT name it as motivation. Inferred-from-principles, not load-bearing |
+| | **Versioning-as-lineage** — I generated this as point #4; Aaron did NOT name it. Row says "minimal fields" — no semver in the manifest |
+| | **Isolation-as-namespace** — I generated this; Aaron did NOT name it. Inferred-from-principles, not load-bearing |
 
 **Refined analysis (post-Aaron-direct-input 2026-05-03)**: Aaron has TWO explicitly-ranked motivations, not the four I generalized to:
 
@@ -225,7 +226,7 @@ I predicted before research:
 
 ---
 
-**Guess timestamp:** 2026-05-03 ~02:55Z (committed under 4a3d583 on the guess branch; landed to main via PR #1283's chained-rebase-merge — PR #1282, the original guess-only PR, was closed as superseded since #1283 absorbed both guess + recovery commits)
+**Guess timestamp:** 2026-05-03 ~02:55Z (committed under 4a3d583 on the guess branch; merged into main via PR #1283's chained-rebase-merge — PR #1282, the original guess-only PR, was closed as superseded since #1283 absorbed both guess + recovery commits)
 **Ground-truth recovery timestamp:** 2026-05-03 ~03:00Z
 **Author:** Otto autonomous (architect hat)
 **Protocol:** in-the-moment guess + ground-truth recovery per