hygiene(tick-history): 2026-05-03T02:51Z — first calibration data point (guess-then-verify)

docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/03/0251Z.md

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+| 2026-05-03T02:51:00Z | opus-4-7 / autonomous-loop continuation | a2e2cc3a | **First complete calibration data point landed under guess-then-verify protocol — Otto's in-the-moment guess on B-0173 scored against actual row body (mixed 4-layer accuracy).** Cycle worked: PR #1278 (guess-then-verify protocol memo) needed rebase due to MEMORY.md conflict with #1276 (same-tick-update-recursion memo); rebased + force-pushed; resolved 1 stale review-against-PR-branch-not-main thread (4th instance this session). PR #1279 (architectural-intent-guesses/ init + first guess on B-0173) MERGED. Then executed the GROUND-TRUTH-RECOVERY phase: read B-0173's actual row body, computed calibration delta across 4 layers. **Score**: architectural intent 6/10 PARTIAL-MATCH (got separation-of-concerns + harness-native; missed contract-based-development / DbC / OpenSpec primary frame); substrate-content 5/10 MIXED (right path; right pre-commit; missed multi-hook architecture — commit-msg + CI on PR descriptions are separate surfaces); specific implementation 3/10 MOSTLY-OFF (confused git hooks with Claude Code's `.claude/settings.json` hook system); cross-row composition 5/10 (got B-0170 implicit; missed B-0171 OpenSpec as load-bearing contract source). **Self-confidence well-calibrated**: high-confidence layer scored highest; low-confidence layer scored lowest — confidence ordering matched accuracy ordering. **Pattern**: inference defaults to generalization-from-principle vs specific-mechanism-recall; strong on principles (separation, harness-native, composition); weak on specifics (which hook system, which timing windows, which contract source). PR #1280 opened + auto-merge armed. | #1280 (GROUND-TRUTH-RECOVERY B-0173 calibration) wait-ci, auto-merge armed; #1279 (architectural-intent-guesses init + first guess) MERGED; #1278 (guess-then-verify protocol memo) wait-ci with stale-thread resolved + rebase clean | This tick teaches **calibration-discipline-as-substrate**: the guess-then-verify protocol's first complete cycle (guess → recovery → delta) generates objectively measurable inference-quality data. Otto's first data point: 19/40 across 4 layers (~48% overall accuracy on a non-trivial architectural-intent inference). The pattern observation (principle-strong + specific-weak) is itself frontier-ability calibration substrate — future-Otto knows where to apply more research vs where principle-based inference is reliable. The B-0173 case is now reproducible for cross-model retroactive replay (give another model B-0173 row title only + same prior-substrate context; compare). |