review(pr-1257-postmerge): verify-then-claim count drift (9→18+) frontmatter + body + MEMORY.md

docs/hygiene-history/ticks/2026/05/03/0049Z.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+| 2026-05-03T00:49:00Z | opus-4-7 / autonomous-loop continuation | a2e2cc3a | **#1257 merged with 3 post-merge findings (frontmatter↔body↔MEMORY.md count drift); PR #1259 opened with synchronized count update across all 3 surfaces; drift instance #19 catalogued (frontmatter ↔ body sub-pattern within count-drift).** Cycle worked: body of verify-then-claim memo says "15+ drift instances" but frontmatter description + MEMORY.md index entry still said "9" — count drift between body and metadata layers. The frontmatter ↔ body drift is itself a sub-pattern within count-drift; substrate-claim-checker TS tool spec gets another concrete check: scan frontmatter description + MEMORY.md entry against body content for count consistency. Updated all 3 surfaces to "18+ drift instances" reflecting current state + named the 7 sub-classes catalogued + sharpened manual-insufficient framing. Cron a2e2cc3a still armed. | #1257 (row-7 prose fix + drift catalogue extension) merged 3dce194d; #1258 (3 #1256 post-merge fixes) wait-ci, auto-merge armed; #1259 (count drift fix across frontmatter + body + MEMORY.md) opened, auto-merge armed | This tick teaches the operational pattern of frontmatter-body-index-count-drift: when body content updates, the frontmatter description + MEMORY.md index entry + any other summary surfaces also need to update. Three surfaces representing the same count means three places to maintain; manual discipline keeps drifting; the TS tool spec gets a check for cross-surface count consistency. The drift catalogue is now self-evidencing — each new tick produces new drift, even when the discipline cataloguing the drift was authored last tick. Mechanization is the only path. |

memory/MEMORY.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 <!-- paired-edit log (NOT the single-slot latest-marker — that lives on line 3 above): PR #986 lands carved-sentence fixed-point stability + Zeta soul-file executor architecture (Infer.NET-style Bayesian inference, NOT LLMs) + carved sentences ≈ formal specs provable in DST + Deepseek CSAP review absorption (Aaron 2026-04-30 → 2026-05-01, eight-message chain across two autonomous-loop ticks per the file body's section header). Architectural disclosure: substrate IS the priors; alignment IS substrate. The single-slot latest-marker on line 3 (forever-home Aaron 2026-05-01) takes precedence as the chronologically-latest paired edit; this PR's work is earlier. -->
 **📌 Fast path: read `CURRENT-aaron.md` and `CURRENT-amara.md` first.** <!-- paired-edit: PR #690 scheduled-workflow-null-result-hygiene-scan tier-1 promotion 2026-04-28 --> These per-maintainer distillations show what's currently in force. Raw memories below are the history; CURRENT files are the projection. (`CURRENT-aaron.md` refreshed 2026-04-28 with sections 26-30 — speculation rule + EVIDENCE-BASED labeling + JVM preference + dependency honesty + threading lineage Albahari/Toub/Fowler + TypeScript/Bun-default discipline.)
 
-- [**Verify-then-claim discipline — verify every substrate claim empirically BEFORE publishing (Otto 2026-05-03 self-grading; 9 drift instances across 7 PRs this session as empirical evidence)**](feedback_verify_then_claim_discipline_dominant_failure_mode_substrate_authoring_otto_2026_05_03.md) — The dominant failure mode for substrate authoring this session: Otto wrote "X exists" / "command returns Y" / "table has N rows" without verifying. Carved rule: before stating ANY fact in substrate (file exists, command returns X, row count is N, tool shipped, ADR matches, persona dir present), run the actual command first. Generalizes Otto-247 + Otto-364 + verify-before-deferring at the broader any-substrate-claim layer. Mechanization: `tools/substrate-claim-checker/` (proposed, not yet built); manual discipline until shipped. Composes with bugs-per-PR-as-immune-system-health metric.
+- [**Verify-then-claim discipline — verify every substrate claim empirically BEFORE publishing (Otto 2026-05-03 self-grading; 20 drift instances across 9+ PRs this session, 7 recurring sub-classes catalogued, v0 mechanization shipped PR #1260)**](feedback_verify_then_claim_discipline_dominant_failure_mode_substrate_authoring_otto_2026_05_03.md) — The dominant failure mode for substrate authoring this session: Otto wrote "X exists" / "command returns Y" / "table has N rows" without verifying. Carved rule: before stating ANY fact in substrate (file exists, command returns X, row count is N, tool shipped, ADR matches, persona dir present), run the actual command first. 7 sub-classes: existence / count / semantic-equivalence / empirical-output / convention / path-form / self-recursive. Generalizes Otto-247 + Otto-364 + verify-before-deferring at the broader any-substrate-claim layer. **Manual discipline provably insufficient** — instances #10-#20 landed AFTER the discipline was named. `tools/substrate-claim-checker/check-counts.ts` shipped PR #1260 (count-drift sub-class); v1+ extends to remaining 6 sub-classes. Composes with bugs-per-PR-as-immune-system-health metric.
 - [**Skill design — hub-satellite separation + no dynamic commands + plugin/hook packaging + OpenSpec catch-up (Aaron 2026-05-03, three same-tick rules + architectural-debt naming)**](feedback_skills_as_carved_sentences_knowledge_in_docs_datavault_2_0_pattern_aaron_2026_05_03.md) — Three cross-cutting skill-design rules: (1) skills = carved-sentence hubs, knowledge = doc satellites, DataVault 2.0 pattern; (2) no dynamic commands in skills, use TS files under tools/ and reference by path; (3) package skill domains as plugins, use harness hooks for pre/post-condition enforcement (contract-based development). PLUS OpenSpec catch-up named as load-bearing prerequisite — *"if we deleted everything other than it"* — currently sparse; catch-up is its own substantial backlog item. Recursive composition across layers (skill body / command / skill domain / cross-skill contracts / spec).
 - [**Git-native backlog management + long-arc thesis as future skill DOMAIN (Aaron 2026-05-02 forward-looking architectural observation)**](feedback_git_native_backlog_management_long_arc_future_skill_domain_aaron_2026_05_02.md) — Domain emerges (6 procedure skills + 4 named-persona experts + 5 tools) once "down pat"; promotion trigger = 3+ worked examples per skill / 1+ judgment-disagreement per expert. Memo body has Aaron's verbatim quote, Aarav BP-20 composition, canonical starting set.
 - [**Skill flywheel + expansion flywheel + parallel-tracks substrate — three flywheel-class questions + Aaron's same-tick skills-are-for-everyone corrective (Aaron 2026-05-02)**](feedback_skill_flywheel_expansion_flywheel_parallel_tracks_substrate_aaron_2026_05_02.md) — Skills propagate across team + harnesses; memory is per-agent. STRONG rule: invoke specialist when editing in their domain (13-row surface→specialist table). Memo body has Aaron's verbatim quote (typos preserved). Composes with B-0169 (skill not memo).

memory/feedback_verify_then_claim_discipline_dominant_failure_mode_substrate_authoring_otto_2026_05_03.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 ---
-name: Verify-then-claim discipline — verify every substrate claim empirically BEFORE publishing (Otto 2026-05-03 self-grading; dominant failure mode caught across 7+ PRs this session)
-description: 2026-05-03; Otto self-grading after Copilot caught 9 distinct claim-vs-reality drift instances across 7 PRs (#1245 #1247 #1248 #1250 #1252 #1253 #1254). The dominant failure mode for substrate authoring this session is claim-vs-reality drift — Otto wrote "X exists" / "command returns Y" / "table has N rows" without verifying empirically. The corrective is the verify-then-claim discipline: before stating ANY fact in substrate (file exists, command returns X, row count is N, tool ships, ADR matches, persona dir present), verify by running the actual command / `ls` / `grep` BEFORE writing the claim. Same class as Otto-247 version-currency-always-search-first + Otto-363 substrate-or-it-didn't-happen + verify-before-deferring — but at the more general layer of any-substrate-claim. Mechanization: `tools/substrate-claim-checker/` (proposed, not yet built) that reads a memo / doc / commit message and runs the cited commands to verify; pre-commit hook integration is a future Phase. Until that ships: discipline is manual but the pattern is now named.
+name: Verify-then-claim discipline — verify every substrate claim empirically BEFORE publishing (Otto 2026-05-03 self-grading; 20 drift instances catalogued across 9+ PRs this session)
+description: 2026-05-03; Otto self-grading after Copilot caught 20 distinct claim-vs-reality drift instances across 9+ PRs (#1245 #1247 #1248 #1250 #1252 #1253 #1254 #1255 #1256 — and counting; instances #10-#20 landed AFTER the discipline was named, strongest empirical urgency for mechanization; v0 of the tool shipped in PR #1260). The dominant failure mode for substrate authoring this session is claim-vs-reality drift — Otto wrote "X exists" / "command returns Y" / "table has N rows" without verifying empirically. Verify-then-claim discipline: before stating ANY fact in substrate (file exists, command returns X, row count is N, tool ships, ADR matches, persona dir present), verify by running the actual command BEFORE writing the claim. Same class as Otto-247 + Otto-363 + verify-before-deferring — at the broader any-substrate-claim layer. 7 recurring sub-classes catalogued: existence / count / semantic-equivalence / empirical-output / convention / path-form / self-recursive. Mechanization: `tools/substrate-claim-checker/` (v0 shipped PR #1260, count-drift sub-class only; v1+ extends to remaining 6 sub-classes; planned two-hook integration: pre-commit for staged-files, commit-msg for message itself, plus CI check for PR descriptions). Manual discipline provably insufficient against trained-prior pull.
 type: feedback
 ---
 
@@ -25,8 +25,13 @@ type: feedback
 | 13 | #1255 (in-flight, recursive #2) | replaced earlier with `grep -ilrE PATTERN docs/DECISIONS/` — claimed equivalent | `grep -r` searches file CONTENTS, not filenames; semantic-equivalence drift, attempt #2 |
 | 14 | #1254 (post-merge) | recommended `superseded:` / `current_status:` ADR frontmatter marker | canonical convention is `> **Superseded by** [link]` blockquote (per `docs/DECISIONS/2026-04-21-router-coherence-claims-vs-complexity.md`) |
 | 15 | #1256 (post-merge) | path-form inconsistency in adjacent ADR citations (mixing fully-qualified with bare filename) | a recurring sub-class — pick one form and apply uniformly per document |
+| 16 | #1256 (post-merge) | claim that BOTH router-coherence v1 AND v2 ADRs contain the `> **Superseded by** [link]` blockquote pattern | only v1 has the blockquote pattern; v2 carries forward-pointing references and instructions-to-append-marker but not the pattern itself |
+| 17 | #1256 (post-merge) | tick shard 0034Z's empirical-verification claim wrote `grep "Superseded by" docs/DECISIONS/` as if runnable | grep on a directory errors without `-r/-R` flag |
+| 18 | #1256 (post-merge) | tick shard 0039Z described the MD038 fix using the same MD038 trigger (backtick-plus-space-backtick) | reintroduced the same lint failure in describing the previous fix |
+| 19 | #1257 (post-merge to itself) | frontmatter description + MEMORY.md index entry said "9 drift instances" but body said "15+" | classic count-drift sub-pattern: body content updated but metadata surfaces didn't follow |
+| 20 | #1259 (in-flight, recursive) | frontmatter description updated to "18+" + MEMORY.md updated to "18+" but body table still had only 15 rows | the count-drift fix itself introduced opposite-direction drift; this very table-row addition fixes it |
 
-**15 drift instances across 9 PRs (and counting; instances #10-#15 landed AFTER the discipline was named — strongest possible empirical urgency for mechanization, since manual discipline already provably hit its wall on the very memo defining the discipline).** Each one a Copilot catch; each one a real claim Otto wrote without verifying. Instances #12 and #13 are particularly diagnostic: same substitution attempt failed twice in succession (find→grep equivalence; grep -ilrE→ls|grep equivalence) — each "fix" introduced a new equivalence-class drift.
+**20 drift instances across 9+ PRs (and counting; instances #10-#20 landed AFTER the discipline was named — strongest possible empirical urgency for mechanization, since manual discipline already provably hit its wall on the very memo defining the discipline).** Each one a Copilot catch; each one a real claim Otto wrote without verifying. Instances #12 and #13 are particularly diagnostic: same substitution attempt failed twice in succession (find→grep equivalence; grep -ilrE→ls|grep equivalence) — each "fix" introduced a new equivalence-class drift. Instance #20 is even more diagnostic: the very PR fixing one direction of count drift introduced the opposite-direction count drift, perfectly demonstrating why mechanization (the substrate-claim-checker TS tool, v0 shipped in PR #1260) is the only path.
 
 Recurring sub-classes within the broader claim-vs-reality drift:
 
@@ -36,7 +41,7 @@ Recurring sub-classes within the broader claim-vs-reality drift:
 - **Empirical-output drift** (command claimed to return X; actually returns Y): instances #5, #7
 - **Convention drift** (recommended pattern doesn't match canonical convention): instance #14
 - **Path-form drift** (fully-qualified vs bare paths inconsistent in adjacent citations): instance #15
-- **Self-recursive drift** (the memo about drift contains its own drift): instances #10, #11
+- **Self-recursive drift** (the memo about drift contains its own drift): instances #10, #11, #19, #20
 
 ## The carved rule
 
@@ -88,7 +93,7 @@ The full mechanization would be `tools/substrate-claim-checker/` — a TS tool (
 
 The tool's outputs (per-commit drift reports) are satellite-shaped per Aaron 2026-05-03 hub-satellite rule; the tool itself is hub-shaped. Filing as a separate backlog row is the right path for actually building it.
 
-Until the tool ships: **the discipline is manual** but the pattern is now named, the failure modes are catalogued (9 drift instances above), and future-Otto can pre-flight-check substrate claims before publishing.
+Until the tool ships: **the discipline is manual** but the pattern is now named, the failure modes are catalogued (20 drift instances above across 7 recurring sub-classes), and future-Otto can pre-flight-check substrate claims before publishing. **Update 2026-05-03: v0 of the tool shipped in PR #1260** covering the count-drift sub-class — the eval-set above is what made authoring v0 mechanical. v1+ extends to remaining 6 sub-classes.
 
 ## Worked example: how this would have caught #1250's Layer-7 drift