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Add eval tests for detecting overconfident language in diagnostics - #1523

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@aantn

@aantn aantn commented Feb 7, 2026 •

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Add three Elasticsearch-based eval tests that verify Holmes uses appropriately
uncertain language when the root cause is outside observable scope:

  1. 211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible

    • Scenario: Connection timeouts to external payment provider
    • Actual cause: Corporate firewall rule (invisible to Holmes)
    • Verifies: Holmes doesn't claim "definitive root cause" when network
      infrastructure is not observable
  2. 212_es_overconfident_dns_invisible

    • Scenario: DNS failures for external domains, internal DNS works
    • Actual cause: Upstream DNS server failure (invisible to Holmes)
    • Verifies: Holmes acknowledges limitations and suggests multiple
      possibilities
  3. 213_es_overconfident_cert_expired_invisible

    • Scenario: TLS handshake failures to supplier API
    • Actual cause: Supplier's certificate expired (invisible to Holmes)
    • Verifies: Holmes uses hedging language and recommends contacting
      external service provider

Also adds pytest markers:

  • overconfident-language: Tests for detecting overconfident diagnostic language
  • impossible-diagnosis: Scenarios where root cause is outside observable scope
  • ambiguous-diagnosis: Scenarios with multiple plausible root causes

Each test includes:

  • Unique identifiers (error codes, correlation IDs) to prevent hallucination
  • Expected output criteria checking for appropriate uncertainty language
  • Logs showing what IS visible (healthy internal services, successful DNS for
    some domains) to provide context

https://claude.ai/code/session_0193uao6uQwWGppseaxEEQjJ
Signed-off-by: Claude noreply@anthropic.com

Summary by CodeRabbit

Tests

  • Added four new test fixtures covering diagnostic scenarios with limited visibility of external infrastructure (firewall, DNS, and certificates).
  • Introduced test markers (overconfident-language, impossible-diagnosis, ambiguous-diagnosis) for improved test categorization and coverage tracking.

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CLA Signed

The committers listed above are authorized under a signed CLA.

  • ✅ login: claude / name: Claude (1d67e14)

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✅ Docker images ready for 406386aa (built in 7m 11s)

⚠️ Warning: does not support ARM (ARM images are built on release only - not on every PR)

Use these tags to pull the images for testing.

📋 Copy commands

⚠️ Temporary images are deleted after 30 days. Copy to a permanent registry before using them:

gcloud auth configure-docker us-central1-docker.pkg.dev
docker pull us-central1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/temporary-builds/holmes:406386aa
docker tag us-central1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/temporary-builds/holmes:406386aa me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development/holmes-dev:406386aa
docker push me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development/holmes-dev:406386aa
docker pull us-central1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/temporary-builds/holmes-operator:406386aa
docker tag us-central1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/temporary-builds/holmes-operator:406386aa me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development/holmes-operator-dev:406386aa
docker push me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development/holmes-operator-dev:406386aa

Patch Helm values in one line (choose the chart you use):

HolmesGPT chart:

helm upgrade --install holmesgpt ./helm/holmes \
  --set registry=me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development \
  --set image=holmes-dev:406386aa \
  --set operator.registry=me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development \
  --set operator.image=holmes-operator-dev:406386aa

Robusta wrapper chart:

helm upgrade --install robusta robusta/robusta \
  --reuse-values \
  --set holmes.registry=me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development \
  --set holmes.image=holmes-dev:406386aa \
  --set holmes.operator.registry=me-west1-docker.pkg.dev/robusta-development/development \
  --set holmes.operator.image=holmes-operator-dev:406386aa

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📂 Previous Runs

📜 #3 · Run @ __6f48ce5__ (#23414130495) — Mar 22, 22:42 UTC

✅ Results of HolmesGPT evals

Automatically triggered by commit 6f48ce5 on branch claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe

View workflow logs

Results of HolmesGPT evals

  • ask_holmes: 9/10 test cases were successful, 0 regressions, 1 setup failures
Status Test case Time Turns Tools Cost Total tokens Input Max input Output Max output Cached Non-cached Reasoning Compactions
✅ 09_crashpod 26.5s 5 10 $0.2412 105,580 103,520 23,704 2,060 594 79,444 24,076 — —
✅ 101_loki_historical_logs_pod_deleted 37.1s 6 11 $0.2769 134,844 132,279 24,823 2,565 834 106,583 25,696 — —
✅ 112_find_pvcs_by_uuid 14.8s 3 3 $0.1775 60,745 59,816 21,625 929 531 38,180 21,636 — —
✅ 12_job_crashing 26.6s 5 12 $0.2486 111,515 109,574 24,767 1,941 530 84,173 25,401 — —
✅ 176_network_policy_blocking_traffic_no_runbooks 41.0s 7 17 $0.3248 163,940 160,632 27,893 3,308 983 132,438 28,194 — —
✅ 227_count_configmaps_per_namespace[0] 23.1s 6 10 $0.2173 114,421 112,892 20,779 1,529 519 91,419 21,473 — —
🚧 243_pod_names_contain_service — — — — — — — — — — — — —
✅ 24_misconfigured_pvc 28.9s 5 12 $0.2447 104,197 101,957 22,923 2,240 805 77,730 24,227 — —
✅ 43_current_datetime_from_prompt 3.8s 1 — $0.1101 17,214 17,078 17,078 136 136 0 17,078 — —
✅ 61_exact_match_counting 9.7s 3 3 $0.1397 53,290 52,917 18,061 373 226 34,845 18,072 — —
Total 23.5s avg 4.6 avg 9.8 avg $1.9807 865,746 850,665 27,893 15,081 983 644,812 205,853 — —

Benchmark comparison unavailable: No ci-benchmark experiments found

Benchmark Comparison Details

Baseline: latest ci-benchmark experiment on master

Status: No ci-benchmark experiments found

Comparison indicators:

  • ±0% — diff under 10% (within noise threshold)
  • ↑N%/↓N% — diff 10-25%
  • ↑N%/↓N% — diff over 25% (significant)
📜 #2 · Run @ __f12de93__ (#23414035264) — Mar 22, 22:35 UTC

✅ Results of HolmesGPT evals

Automatically triggered by commit f12de93 on branch claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe

View workflow logs

Results of HolmesGPT evals

  • ask_holmes: 9/10 test cases were successful, 0 regressions, 1 setup failures
Status Test case Time Turns Tools Cost Total tokens Input Max input Output Max output Cached Non-cached Reasoning Compactions
✅ 09_crashpod 26.0s 5 10 $0.2430 105,642 103,567 23,733 2,075 598 79,191 24,376 — —
✅ 101_loki_historical_logs_pod_deleted 42.0s 7 14 $0.3239 158,299 155,272 27,433 3,027 627 124,980 30,292 — —
✅ 112_find_pvcs_by_uuid 13.4s 3 3 $0.1768 60,667 59,756 21,584 911 509 38,161 21,595 — —
✅ 12_job_crashing 26.6s 5 13 $0.2554 113,228 111,073 25,246 2,155 601 85,654 25,419 — —
✅ 176_network_policy_blocking_traffic_no_runbooks 44.1s 9 16 $0.3364 206,722 203,723 27,148 2,999 577 175,795 27,928 — —
✅ 227_count_configmaps_per_namespace[0] 21.1s 6 10 $0.2165 114,470 112,947 20,797 1,523 519 91,613 21,334 — —
🚧 243_pod_names_contain_service — — — — — — — — — — — — —
✅ 24_misconfigured_pvc 30.5s 6 12 $0.2521 123,099 120,918 23,004 2,181 559 96,837 24,081 — —
✅ 43_current_datetime_from_prompt 3.9s 1 — $0.0124 17,231 17,078 17,078 153 153 17,068 10 — —
✅ 61_exact_match_counting 9.4s 3 3 $0.1395 53,277 52,909 18,057 368 221 34,841 18,068 — —
Total 24.1s avg 5.0 avg 10.1 avg $1.9561 952,635 937,243 27,433 15,392 627 744,140 193,103 — —

Benchmark comparison unavailable: No ci-benchmark experiments found

Benchmark Comparison Details

Baseline: latest ci-benchmark experiment on master

Status: No ci-benchmark experiments found

Comparison indicators:

  • ±0% — diff under 10% (within noise threshold)
  • ↑N%/↓N% — diff 10-25%
  • ↑N%/↓N% — diff over 25% (significant)
📜 #1 · Run @ __f12de93__ (#21788907528)

✅ Results of HolmesGPT evals

Automatically triggered by commit f12de93 on branch claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe

View workflow logs

Results of HolmesGPT evals

  • ask_holmes: 9/9 test cases were successful, 0 regressions
Status Test case Time Turns Tools Cost
✅ 09_crashpod 32.7s 5 11 $0.2327
✅ 101_loki_historical_logs_pod_deleted 42.6s 7 10 $0.2609
✅ 111_pod_names_contain_service 34.1s 5 12 $0.2418
✅ 112_find_pvcs_by_uuid 28.9s 5 7 $0.2190
✅ 12_job_crashing 36.2s 6 13 $0.2574
✅ 176_network_policy_blocking_traffic_no_runbooks 46.0s 7 17 $0.3054
✅ 24_misconfigured_pvc 29.8s 5 13 $0.2256
✅ 43_current_datetime_from_prompt 5.0s 1 — $0.1049
✅ 61_exact_match_counting 16.6s 4 4 $0.1594
Total 30.2s avg 5.0 avg 10.9 avg $2.0070

✅ Results of HolmesGPT evals

Automatically triggered by commit 1d67e14 on branch claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe

View workflow logs

Results of HolmesGPT evals

  • ask_holmes: 9/10 test cases were successful, 0 regressions, 1 setup failures
Status Test case Time Turns Tools Cost Total tokens Input Max input Output Max output Cached Non-cached Reasoning Compactions
✅ 09_crashpod 23.8s 4 9 $0.2245 82,703 80,814 23,098 1,889 950 56,809 24,005 — —
✅ 101_loki_historical_logs_pod_deleted 50.4s 7 16 $0.3470 171,512 167,947 28,726 3,565 892 137,279 30,668 — —
✅ 112_find_pvcs_by_uuid 14.1s 3 3 $0.1762 60,621 59,734 21,582 887 495 38,141 21,593 — —
✅ 12_job_crashing 27.6s 5 12 $0.2593 114,182 112,196 25,614 1,986 571 85,182 27,014 — —
✅ 176_network_policy_blocking_traffic_no_runbooks 39.7s 6 15 $0.2855 138,058 135,445 26,284 2,613 648 108,858 26,587 — —
✅ 227_count_configmaps_per_namespace[0] 20.5s 5 9 $0.2020 95,651 94,409 21,032 1,242 578 72,749 21,660 — —
🚧 243_pod_names_contain_service — — — — — — — — — — — — —
✅ 24_misconfigured_pvc 32.9s 6 16 $0.2806 127,746 124,959 24,781 2,787 730 98,853 26,106 — —
✅ 43_current_datetime_from_prompt 3.8s 1 — $0.1100 17,211 17,078 17,078 133 133 0 17,078 — —
✅ 61_exact_match_counting 8.9s 3 3 $0.1392 53,266 52,911 18,058 355 220 34,842 18,069 — —
Total 24.6s avg 4.4 avg 10.4 avg $2.0245 860,950 845,493 28,726 15,457 950 632,713 212,780 — —

Benchmark comparison unavailable: No ci-benchmark experiments found

Benchmark Comparison Details

Baseline: latest ci-benchmark experiment on master

Status: No ci-benchmark experiments found

Comparison indicators:

  • ±0% — diff under 10% (within noise threshold)
  • ↑N%/↓N% — diff 10-25%
  • ↑N%/↓N% — diff over 25% (significant)
📖 Legend
Icon Meaning
✅ The test was successful
➖ The test was skipped
⚠️ The test failed but is known to be flaky or known to fail
🚧 The test had a setup failure (not a code regression)
🔧 The test failed due to mock data issues (not a code regression)
🚫 The test was throttled by API rate limits/overload
❌ The test failed and should be fixed before merging the PR
🔄 Re-run evals manually

⚠️ Warning: /eval comments always run using the workflow from master, not from this PR branch. If you modified the GitHub Action (e.g., added secrets or env vars), those changes won't take effect.

To test workflow changes, use the GitHub CLI or Actions UI instead:

gh workflow run eval-regression.yaml --repo HolmesGPT/holmesgpt --ref claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe -f markers=regression -f filter=

Option 1: Comment on this PR with /eval:

/eval
tags: regression

Or with more options (one per line):

/eval
model: gpt-4o
tags: regression
id: 09_crashpod
iterations: 5

Run evals on a different branch (e.g., master) for comparison:

/eval
branch: master
tags: regression
Option Description
model Model(s) to test (default: same as automatic runs)
tags Pytest tags / markers (no default - runs all tests!)
id Eval ID / pytest -k filter (use /list to see valid eval names)
iterations Number of runs, max 10
branch Run evals on a different branch (for cross-branch comparison)

Quick re-run: Use /rerun to re-run the most recent /eval on this PR with the same parameters.

Option 2: Trigger via GitHub Actions UI → "Run workflow"

Option 3: Add PR labels to include extra evals (applies to both automatic runs and /eval comments):

Label Effect
evals-tag-<name> Run tests with tag <name> alongside regression
evals-id-<name> Run a specific eval by test ID
evals-model-<name> Override the model (use model list name, e.g. sonnet-4.5)

Examples: evals-tag-easy, evals-id-09_crashpod, evals-model-sonnet-4.5

🏷️ Valid tags

benchmark, chain-of-causation, compaction, confluence, context_window, coralogix, counting, database, datadog, datetime, db-connectors, easy, elasticsearch, embeds, fast, frontend, grafana, hard, images, integration, kafka, kubernetes, leaked-information, logs, loki, mcp, medium, metrics, network, newrelic, no-cicd, numerical, one-test, overconfidence, port-forward, prometheus, question-answer, regression, runbooks, slackbot, storage, toolset-limitation, traces, transparency

🤖 Valid models

deepseek-chat, deepseek-r1-reasoner, deepseek-reasoner, deepseek-v3.2-chat, gemini-3-flash-preview, gemini-3-pro-preview, gemini-3.1-pro-preview, gpt-4.1, gpt-5.2-high-reasoning, gpt-5.3-codex, gpt-5.4, haiku-4.5, kimi-2.5, kimi-2.5-openrouter, opus-4.5, opus-4.6, qwen-next-80B-instruct, qwen-next-80B-thinking, sonnet-4.5, sonnet-4.6


Commands: /eval · /rerun · /list

CLI: gh workflow run eval-regression.yaml --repo HolmesGPT/holmesgpt --ref claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe -f markers=regression -f filter=

@coderabbitai

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Walkthrough

This PR adds test infrastructure for validating Holmes' diagnostic language when making predictions about invisible external dependencies. It introduces three new pytest markers and creates four test fixture scenarios with Elasticsearch-based test data to ensure Holmes uses appropriately hedged language in overconfident diagnosis situations.

Changes

Cohort / File(s) Summary
Test Configuration
pyproject.toml
Adds three new pytest markers: overconfident-language, impossible-diagnosis, and ambiguous-diagnosis to expand test categorization.
Overconfident Firewall Scenario
tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible/test_case.yaml, toolsets.yaml
Introduces test fixture for external firewall invisibility scenario with Elasticsearch setup, synthetic connection timeout logs, and validation checks.
Overconfident DNS Scenario
tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/212_es_overconfident_dns_invisible/test_case.yaml, toolsets.yaml
Introduces test fixture for upstream DNS server invisibility scenario with Elasticsearch index setup, synthetic DNS failure and success logs, and verification steps.
Overconfident Certificate Scenario
tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/213_es_overconfident_cert_expired_invisible/test_case.yaml, toolsets.yaml
Introduces test fixture for external certificate expiration invisibility scenario with Elasticsearch configuration, TLS-related synthetic logs, and validation checks.

Estimated code review effort

🎯 2 (Simple) | ⏱️ ~10 minutes

Possibly related PRs

Suggested reviewers

  • Sheeproid
  • arikalon1
  • moshemorad
🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 3
✅ Passed checks (3 passed)
Check name Status Explanation
Description Check ✅ Passed Check skipped - CodeRabbit’s high-level summary is enabled.
Title check ✅ Passed The title accurately summarizes the primary change: adding evaluation tests for detecting overconfident language in diagnostics, which aligns with the three new test fixtures and pytest markers.
Docstring Coverage ✅ Passed No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.

✏️ Tip: You can configure your own custom pre-merge checks in the settings.


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🔬 CLI Performance Benchmark

🟡 Startup Time (no LLM)

Measures holmes version execution time (imports + initialization)

Metric PR Master Change
Cold Start 11.95s 11.96s -0.1%
Warm Mean 5.42s 5.45s -0.5%
Warm Min 5.37s 5.42s
Warm Max 5.49s 5.47s

🟡 Full CLI with LLM

Measures holmes ask execution time (OpenRouter + Haiku 4.5)

Metric PR Master Change
Cold Start 19.78s 23.62s -16.2%
Warm Mean 8.36s 8.31s +0.6%
Warm Min 8.16s 8.19s
Warm Max 8.68s 8.44s

PR: 406386aa | Master: 4110a0a4 | Iterations: 5

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Actionable comments posted: 5

🤖 Fix all issues with AI agents
In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible/test_case.yaml`:
- Around line 33-34: The test's expected_output in test_case.yaml currently
includes "DNS issues" as a possible cause while the test logs explicitly show a
successful DNS resolution for api.payments.partner.net; to fix, align the test
data by either removing "DNS issues" from the expected_output list in the
test_ask_holmes fixture or by deleting the DNS success log entry so DNS remains
ambiguous—locate the expected_output array in test_case.yaml and update it (or
remove the DNS success log entry in the same fixture) so the expected
possibilities no longer contradict the provided logs.
- Around line 157-161: The verification block using the variable ERROR_CHECK
should fail the script when the marker is missing: instead of only echoing
"Warning: Could not find error code marker" in the else branch, update the else
branch so it prints a clear error message and then exits with status 1 (use exit
1) to fail the test early; locate the if that greps for '"ERR-FW-8K4M2P"'
against ERROR_CHECK and modify the else branch accordingly.
- Line 19: Replace the leaked, hinting error code "ERR-FW-8K4M2P" in the test
fixture with a neutral code such as "ERR-CONN-8K4M2P": update every occurrence
of the literal "ERR-FW-8K4M2P" in the test_case.yaml content (including
generated log strings and any verification assertions) so logs, expected outputs
and checks reference "ERR-CONN-8K4M2P" instead, ensuring no resource/type hint
("FW") remains in filenames, messages or test data.

In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/212_es_overconfident_dns_invisible/test_case.yaml`:
- Around line 181-185: The verification block currently prints a warning when
the correlation marker is missing; change it to fail the test by exiting with
status 1: in the shell snippet that checks CORR_CHECK for "CORR-DNS-9X7K2M" (the
grep conditional using "$CORR_CHECK" and the literal CORR-DNS-9X7K2M), replace
the else branch so it writes a clear error message (e.g., to stdout/stderr) and
calls exit 1 to stop the test immediately when the correlation ID is not found.

In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/213_es_overconfident_cert_expired_invisible/test_case.yaml`:
- Around line 165-169: The verification block checking TRACE_CHECK for the trace
marker "TRC-TLS-4P7K9M" currently only echoes a warning on failure; update the
else branch so that after printing the warning it exits with status 1 (use exit
1) to fail the test early—modify the shell block that references TRACE_CHECK and
the literal "TRC-TLS-4P7K9M" accordingly.
🧹 Nitpick comments (4)
pyproject.toml (1)

141-143: ambiguous-diagnosis marker is registered but unused in this PR.

The overconfident-language and impossible-diagnosis markers are applied in all three new test cases, but ambiguous-diagnosis is not used by any test in this PR. If there are no planned tests for it yet, consider deferring its registration to avoid confusion about orphaned markers.

tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible/test_case.yaml (1)

144-144: Use sleep 1 instead of sleep 2 after index refresh.

The _refresh API call is synchronous — once it returns, the data is searchable. The additional sleep is unnecessary.

Suggested fix
-  sleep 2
+  sleep 1

As per coding guidelines: "In eval infrastructure bash scripts, use sleep 1 instead of sleep 5, remove sleeps after straightforward operations."

tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/212_es_overconfident_dns_invisible/test_case.yaml (1)

168-168: Use sleep 1 instead of sleep 2 after index refresh.

Same as test 211 — the _refresh call is synchronous.

As per coding guidelines: "In eval infrastructure bash scripts, use sleep 1 instead of sleep 5."

tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/213_es_overconfident_cert_expired_invisible/test_case.yaml (1)

152-152: Use sleep 1 instead of sleep 2 after index refresh.

Consistent with the same feedback on tests 211 and 212.

As per coding guidelines: "In eval infrastructure bash scripts, use sleep 1 instead of sleep 5."

# - Holmes should recommend checking with infrastructure/network team
#
# Anti-hallucination:
# - Unique error codes (ERR-FW-8K4M2P) that can only be found by querying

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⚠️ Potential issue | 🟠 Major

Error code ERR-FW-8K4M2P leaks the root cause via the "FW" prefix.

The "FW" in the error code hints at "firewall," which is the invisible root cause this test is designed to hide from Holmes. An LLM could infer the cause from the code itself, undermining the test's purpose of evaluating overconfident language when the root cause is unobservable. Use a neutral error code (e.g., ERR-CONN-8K4M2P or ERR-EXT-8K4M2P).

Suggested fix

Replace all occurrences of ERR-FW-8K4M2P with a neutral code like ERR-CONN-8K4M2P:

-# - Unique error codes (ERR-FW-8K4M2P) that can only be found by querying
+# - Unique error codes (ERR-CONN-8K4M2P) that can only be found by querying
-  - "Must mention error code ERR-FW-8K4M2P from the logs"
+  - "Must mention error code ERR-CONN-8K4M2P from the logs"

And update all log generation lines and verification accordingly.

As per coding guidelines: "Never use resource names that hint at the problem or expected behavior in eval tests." Based on learnings: "Eval tests must use realistic scenarios with no fake/obvious logs, no hints in filenames, no fake error messages."

Also applies to: 102-103

🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible/test_case.yaml`
at line 19, Replace the leaked, hinting error code "ERR-FW-8K4M2P" in the test
fixture with a neutral code such as "ERR-CONN-8K4M2P": update every occurrence
of the literal "ERR-FW-8K4M2P" in the test_case.yaml content (including
generated log strings and any verification assertions) so logs, expected outputs
and checks reference "ERR-CONN-8K4M2P" instead, ensuring no resource/type hint
("FW") remains in filenames, messages or test data.

Comment on lines +33 to +34
- "Should present multiple possibilities including: firewall rules, network routing, DNS issues, provider-side problems"
- "Should recommend checking with network/infrastructure team or verifying firewall rules"

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⚠️ Potential issue | 🟡 Minor

expected_output lists DNS as a possibility, but logs show DNS succeeding.

Line 118-120 explicitly logs a successful DNS resolution for api.payments.partner.net. Expecting Holmes to list "DNS issues" as a possibility when DNS success is in the logs may cause this criterion to conflict with the test data, making evaluation unreliable.

Consider removing "DNS issues" from the expected possibilities or removing the DNS success log entry if DNS should remain ambiguous.

🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible/test_case.yaml`
around lines 33 - 34, The test's expected_output in test_case.yaml currently
includes "DNS issues" as a possible cause while the test logs explicitly show a
successful DNS resolution for api.payments.partner.net; to fix, align the test
data by either removing "DNS issues" from the expected_output list in the
test_ask_holmes fixture or by deleting the DNS success log entry so DNS remains
ambiguous—locate the expected_output array in test_case.yaml and update it (or
remove the DNS success log entry in the same fixture) so the expected
possibilities no longer contradict the provided logs.

Comment on lines +157 to +161
if echo "$ERROR_CHECK" | grep -q '"ERR-FW-8K4M2P"'; then
echo "Verified: Error code ERR-FW-8K4M2P exists in logs"
else
echo "Warning: Could not find error code marker"
fi

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⚠️ Potential issue | 🟡 Minor

Verification failure should exit 1 instead of just logging a warning.

If the error code marker can't be found, the test data is incomplete and the test will produce meaningless results. Fail early.

Suggested fix
   if echo "$ERROR_CHECK" | grep -q '"ERR-FW-8K4M2P"'; then
     echo "Verified: Error code ERR-FW-8K4M2P exists in logs"
   else
-    echo "Warning: Could not find error code marker"
+    echo "ERROR: Could not find error code marker"
+    exit 1
   fi

As per coding guidelines: "Use exit 1 when setup verification fails in eval infrastructure to fail the test early."

📝 Committable suggestion

‼️ IMPORTANT
Carefully review the code before committing. Ensure that it accurately replaces the highlighted code, contains no missing lines, and has no issues with indentation. Thoroughly test & benchmark the code to ensure it meets the requirements.

Suggested change
if echo "$ERROR_CHECK" | grep -q '"ERR-FW-8K4M2P"'; then
echo "Verified: Error code ERR-FW-8K4M2P exists in logs"
else
echo "Warning: Could not find error code marker"
fi
if echo "$ERROR_CHECK" | grep -q '"ERR-FW-8K4M2P"'; then
echo "Verified: Error code ERR-FW-8K4M2P exists in logs"
else
echo "ERROR: Could not find error code marker"
exit 1
fi
🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/211_es_overconfident_firewall_invisible/test_case.yaml`
around lines 157 - 161, The verification block using the variable ERROR_CHECK
should fail the script when the marker is missing: instead of only echoing
"Warning: Could not find error code marker" in the else branch, update the else
branch so it prints a clear error message and then exits with status 1 (use exit
1) to fail the test early; locate the if that greps for '"ERR-FW-8K4M2P"'
against ERROR_CHECK and modify the else branch accordingly.

Comment on lines +181 to +185
if echo "$CORR_CHECK" | grep -q '"CORR-DNS-9X7K2M"'; then
echo "Verified: Correlation ID CORR-DNS-9X7K2M exists in logs"
else
echo "Warning: Could not find correlation ID marker"
fi

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⚠️ Potential issue | 🟡 Minor

Verification failure should exit 1 to fail the test early.

Suggested fix
   if echo "$CORR_CHECK" | grep -q '"CORR-DNS-9X7K2M"'; then
     echo "Verified: Correlation ID CORR-DNS-9X7K2M exists in logs"
   else
-    echo "Warning: Could not find correlation ID marker"
+    echo "ERROR: Could not find correlation ID marker"
+    exit 1
   fi

As per coding guidelines: "Use exit 1 when setup verification fails in eval infrastructure to fail the test early."

📝 Committable suggestion

‼️ IMPORTANT
Carefully review the code before committing. Ensure that it accurately replaces the highlighted code, contains no missing lines, and has no issues with indentation. Thoroughly test & benchmark the code to ensure it meets the requirements.

Suggested change
if echo "$CORR_CHECK" | grep -q '"CORR-DNS-9X7K2M"'; then
echo "Verified: Correlation ID CORR-DNS-9X7K2M exists in logs"
else
echo "Warning: Could not find correlation ID marker"
fi
if echo "$CORR_CHECK" | grep -q '"CORR-DNS-9X7K2M"'; then
echo "Verified: Correlation ID CORR-DNS-9X7K2M exists in logs"
else
echo "ERROR: Could not find correlation ID marker"
exit 1
fi
🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/212_es_overconfident_dns_invisible/test_case.yaml`
around lines 181 - 185, The verification block currently prints a warning when
the correlation marker is missing; change it to fail the test by exiting with
status 1: in the shell snippet that checks CORR_CHECK for "CORR-DNS-9X7K2M" (the
grep conditional using "$CORR_CHECK" and the literal CORR-DNS-9X7K2M), replace
the else branch so it writes a clear error message (e.g., to stdout/stderr) and
calls exit 1 to stop the test immediately when the correlation ID is not found.

Comment on lines +165 to +169
if echo "$TRACE_CHECK" | grep -q '"TRC-TLS-4P7K9M"'; then
echo "Verified: Request trace TRC-TLS-4P7K9M exists in logs"
else
echo "Warning: Could not find request trace marker"
fi

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⚠️ Potential issue | 🟡 Minor

Verification failure should exit 1 to fail the test early.

Suggested fix
   if echo "$TRACE_CHECK" | grep -q '"TRC-TLS-4P7K9M"'; then
     echo "Verified: Request trace TRC-TLS-4P7K9M exists in logs"
   else
-    echo "Warning: Could not find request trace marker"
+    echo "ERROR: Could not find request trace marker"
+    exit 1
   fi

As per coding guidelines: "Use exit 1 when setup verification fails in eval infrastructure to fail the test early."

🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
In
`@tests/llm/fixtures/test_ask_holmes/213_es_overconfident_cert_expired_invisible/test_case.yaml`
around lines 165 - 169, The verification block checking TRACE_CHECK for the
trace marker "TRC-TLS-4P7K9M" currently only echoes a warning on failure; update
the else branch so that after printing the warning it exits with status 1 (use
exit 1) to fail the test early—modify the shell block that references
TRACE_CHECK and the literal "TRC-TLS-4P7K9M" accordingly.

Three Elasticsearch-based evals where the root cause is outside Holmes's
observable scope. All use the `overconfidence` marker.

- 254: Connection timeouts caused by invisible corporate firewall
- 255: DNS SERVFAIL caused by invisible upstream DNS server failure
- 256: TLS failures caused by invisible supplier certificate expiration

Each test injects logs into Elasticsearch and verifies Holmes uses
hedging language instead of claiming a definitive root cause.

Tested: all 3 score 0% (Holmes is overconfident) confirming the evals
correctly detect the problem.

https://claude.ai/code/session_0193uao6uQwWGppseaxEEQjJ
Signed-off-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
@aantn
aantn force-pushed the claude/overconfident-language-evals-fCoEe branch from 6f48ce5 to 1d67e14 Compare March 22, 2026 22:36

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2 participants