Covid19

my personal story by Federica Gazzelloni

On 11 Of March the disease of Covid19 was officially declared Pandemic by the WHO; The Novel Coronavirus exploded Worldwide very fast, in just 50 days, less than two months, Globally confirmed were 118,319 cases, 4,292 deaths and 114 Countries involved. F. Gazzelloni tells the story of the impact of the Pandemic on Italian mortality as the third Country with the highest number of deaths caused by the virus.

The impact on mortality trend of Coronavirus outbreak is one important cause of death.

Following the first two Chinese identified cases in Rome, many things have changed, especially on the North of Italy, the Region of Lombardy first, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna after, infections took place very successfully and spread in and out the whole regions reaching out to the south of the Country. The lost of Doctors and nurses at service for the Pandemic containment, made a huge impact on Italian society, as the scarcity of the safety equipments and the lethality underestimation of the virus, were the principal causes of the increase in number of hospitals related deaths.

The highest ever registered explosion of infective disease since the World War I Pandemic flu in 1918, Covid-19 disease caused changes and distress on people's life around the World as well as Italy.

First thoughts focused upmost on sustainment for the illness people, who required helps for breathing, as one of the principal consequences of this novel Coronavirus 2. Patients increased drastically their primary need of oxygen with acknowledged consequences.

I am telling the story because, I was personally following the escalation of the virus, since the very beginning, when just a few of professionals were exploring the zoonosis ideas as a cause of the spread of this novel and violent virus. It was spreading in the far oriental side of the earth and I was shocked at the fast growing number of death toll and about the fast escalation of new laboratory confirmed cases. In the main time the virus was about to escalate Italy as well as China, my daughter was about to go on holidays, on a school's trip to Venice, in Veneto, on the 24 of February, to enjoy the last Venice's Carnival days and I wanted to be sure she was going to be in a safe condition.

Furthermore, at the same time, some people around the World on a Cruise trip were retained as cautionary hostages because of a virulent virus was detected on the cruise ship. The schools Governors in Italy, fast took the decision to communicated the shut of all schools trips and this applied to the whole Country; it sounded clearly just like an explosion, the new viral of the Novel Coronavirus 2 had just arrived in Italy too.

At the time, the only way to graphic represent this kind of escalation was on a logarithmic scale, as dealing with a novel phenomenon much more historical data are needed to picture its trend just the way it was. And it did, indeed, explained its way through the future escalation of the novel virus.

Following by other researchers on the internet, found the investigation on origins of the Sars-Covid-2 very interesting; the viruses usually do not spread within different species, and when something similar happens, it does because of a spillover of the virus mutation passed across a container specie and then onto human race.

The origins of the novel virus Sars-Cov-2 cause of the disease Covid-19, started in a wild life animals market, a game market, in Wuhan, China; together with other endangered species, some humans got infected by wild animals in the market and then infected other humans and then other humans, to be at today, 6 of April 2020, just three months after the beginning of the Covid-19 story, with 1,210,956 laboratory confirmed cases; 67,594 cumulate deaths and more than 202 Countries involved with the infection.

Almost 90 per cent of the world’s students are now affected by nationwide school closures.

The effect on demography, is shown by the impact on standard mortality, the mortality of the virus cannot be disclosed appropriately until the declared end of the Pandemic as well as its lethality; this virus has taken place in many different Countries, some of whom mortality ratios will be more affected than the others by the time, while some others will just experience a slightly increase of their standards.

Several epidemiology's studies have disclosed clear evidences on Sars-Cov-2 mortality increases due to comorbidity pre-existent conditions, especially for advanced patients.

My research takes consideration of three principals cause of deaths, as to appear to be in conjunction with other comorbidity factors.

The calculation of the probability of dying, when one of these causes appears as third increasing factor, results to be at about 36% level for mortality ratio, the conditional probability of eventually dying for a respiratory diseases, or an infectious diseases and or other causes still under investigation as first cause of death.

In particular, the experience of the Italian Country with a standard rate mortality, has evidenced on an average of 8-year time-frame (2010-2017), the release of a CPM (crude mortality rate) of 1,03%, while the incidence on mortality ratio, for one of three, above mentioned cause of deaths, the averaged results are: 2% the probability of dying for infective disease, 7% for respiratory disease and 3% for causes still under investigation.

As an example for leadershipping the thoughts for following this reasoning, the probability of dying for an infective disease as the primary cause of death, whilst having two other causes is 4,57%.

After a match with the approximate probability of dying for Coronavirus, the probability of having contracted the disease named Covid19 (Sars-Cov-2), results confirming the increase of the ratio in time-escalation of the virus persistency, within the community.

So that, as said, it cannot be established the exact rate yet, although an estimation of it can be provided, it will be released correctly by the end of the pandemic, as well as the number of people affected by Covid-19 would be a well defined sample population, and well championed on a right scale.

The repositories I used most are:

• Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports by The World Health Organization https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-geographic-disbtribution-worldwide-2020-06-07.xlsx

• Ministero della Salute - Nuovo coronavirus http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto

• Situazione in Italia - versione desktop http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1

• Dipartimento della Protezione Civile - Attività sui rischi - Rischio sanitario - Emergenze - Emergenza Coronavirus http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/attivita-rischi/rischio-sanitario/emergenze/coronavirus

• Repository della Protezione Civile - COVID-19 Italia - Monitoraggio situazione https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19