ci: isolate long GRM recovery from bounded ignored-test shards

[seonghobae]

RCA

Protected-main Ignored Rust studies shard 3 timed out at the runner's per-STATISTICAL_TEST 1800-second boundary while executing grm::tests::mc_grm_recovery_500. The test had already completed and printed both D=2 normal/skew 500-rep recovery scenarios before the process-level deadline, so this is an orchestration/runtime-budget failure at the generic shard layer rather than evidence that the GRM estimates failed their scientific acceptance criteria.

mc_grm_recovery_500 intentionally runs 500 replications across D=2 and D=3 under normal and standardized right-skew traits. Reducing replications or weakening scientific assertions would destroy required evidence, and simply expanding the generic per-test timeout would increase blast radius for every ignored study.

Remedy

• exclude this exact target-qualified test from the generic 12-way ignored-test inventory;
• add a dedicated read-only GRM 500-rep recovery study job with a 120-minute outer job budget;
• execute the exact Rust test directly with --ignored --exact --nocapture --test-threads=1;
• add workflow-contract tests proving the exclusion is target-qualified and the dedicated job exists.

This preserves 500-rep bias/RMSE/convergence/theta-recovery evidence and leaves the generic 1800-second subprocess fail-closed policy unchanged for ordinary ignored tests.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Tests
  • Added dedicated validation for the GRM recovery study, running all 500 repetitions serially.
  • Updated sharded study runs to exclude the GRM recovery test appropriately.
  • Expanded workflow checks to verify recovery-test configuration and exclusions.

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📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

The workflow adds a dedicated serial job for the ignored 500-repetition GRM recovery test. Rust shard exclusions and workflow-contract tests now cover the qualified and raw test identifiers.

Changes

GRM recovery workflow

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Dedicated GRM recovery execution .github/workflows/statistical-studies.yml	The workflow excludes the GRM recovery test from ignored Rust shards and runs it in a dedicated Ubuntu job with exact matching and one test thread.
Workflow contract validation tests/test_statistical_studies_workflow.py	The tests require the grm-recovery job and validate the qualified and raw GRM recovery test names.

Estimated code review effort: 2 (Simple) | ~10 minutes

Merge Risk: 🟡 Moderate · up to 50e6d

The new study job retains checkout credentials while running repository-controlled tests, allowing test code to access the repository token unnecessarily. Disable credential persistence before merging.

Suggested reviewers: claude

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Description Check	✅ Passed	Check skipped - CodeRabbit’s high-level summary is enabled.
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly and concisely describes isolating the long GRM recovery test from bounded ignored-test shards.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

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Actionable comments posted: 1

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Inline comments:
In @.github/workflows/statistical-studies.yml:
- Line 79: Update the actions/checkout step in the statistical studies workflow
to set persist-credentials to false, preventing the checkout token from
remaining available to repository-controlled commands; leave the pinned checkout
action and other workflow behavior unchanged.

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• .github/workflows/statistical-studies.yml
• tests/test_statistical_studies_workflow.py

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Review of 364ec275

This isolation slice is the right operating-policy fix for the protected-main shard timeout. The 500-replication multidimensional GRM study stays scientifically intact, leaves the generic 1,800-second STATISTICAL_TEST fail-closed budget unchanged, and runs once under a 120-minute dedicated job.

Prior CodeRabbit finding

persist-credentials: false is present on the new checkout and locked by test_grm_recovery_checkout_does_not_persist_credentials. The earlier artipacked thread is fully addressed by 6aca187e / e0f419fc.

No merge blockers in this diff

• Skip identity is target-qualified: mlsirm-core/lib/mlsirm_core::grm::tests::mc_grm_recovery_500.
• Dedicated command uses --ignored --exact --nocapture --test-threads=1.
• Workflow permissions stay contents: read.
• Triggers stay workflow_dispatch / 17 2 * * * / v* — matching the RCA (scheduled/default-branch studies, not PR CI).
• Prior head e0f419fc had required checks green before the latest main merge.

Residual buyer gap (not a #927 blocker)

After this lands, the printed bias / RMSE / convergence / theta-correlation lines still live only in --nocapture logs, sibling study checkouts still persist the Actions token, and PR CI does not yet forbid copying grm-recovery into the merge queue.

Successor #937 keeps this isolation and adds:

1. a 90-day grm-recovery-study.log artifact;
2. persist-credentials: false on every Statistical Studies checkout;
3. contract tests that keep grm-recovery / mc_grm_recovery_500 out of PR CI;
4. ADR-0008 / doctoring / governance updates (Samejima, 1969; Svetina et al., 2017).

Next action

Land this PR when required review and checks pass, then land #937 — or land #937 alone, which already contains this isolation. After default-branch merge, dispatch Statistical Studies once and confirm all four [grm MC D=…] lines finish under 120 minutes.

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[seonghobae]

Superseded by #937. Exact-head ancestry shows #937 is a strict one-commit descendant of this head (ahead 1 / behind 0, merge base = this PR's exact head), so it retains the dedicated 120-minute GRM recovery isolation without reducing the 500-rep scientific evidence. The successor also persists the printed bias/RMSE/convergence/theta-correlation evidence as a 90-day artifact, locks the long study out of PR CI, and disables checkout credential persistence across the Statistical Studies workflow. Keeping both mergeable would create a duplicate workflow lane; prefer #937.