feat(analysis): bind inferred-status refusals to an analysis-run profile

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -38,6 +38,8 @@ All notable changes to TEPP are documented here. The format follows Keep a Chang
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+- **Inferred-status analysis-run profile**: `analysis_engine` binds existing `inferred_status::EvidenceStatus`, `refuse_inferred_as_observed`, and `refuse_inferred_as_transition` to cutoff-safe `inferred_status_v1` (`tepp.inferred_status.v1`) with inference status `inferred_is_not_observed_and_not_transition`. `identity_recovery_rate` stays library-side. Not relation-absence, not episode-membership, not outcome-order, not membership-target, not location-membership, not membership-posterior ICC, not copied-text, not copy-identity, not citation-edge, not subevent containment, not GPU, not MCMC, and not topic birth/split/merge.
+
 - `event_core` adds bounded Allen interval-consistency classification, atomic path-consistency closure, contradiction/resource refusals, and an explicit dependency-error fallback without claiming unrestricted global satisfiability.
 
 - `psychometric_core` recovers the Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12 `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`; §7.1, p. 19; p. 16 `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`; footnote 4; 2017-era ctsem `summary.ctsemFit.R`; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-27T14:20Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) scalar standardised manifest-trait variance on current main after `0ce16e8` dropped the pre-consolidation code while research notes already named the map (register items 83–84). Table 2 names `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` `Ψ_τ` the additional time-invariant variance-covariance on the measurement level and sets it `NULL` when there is no manifest trait. Equation 5 writes `Γ ~ N(τ, Ψ)` and names that covariance the manifest traits. Section 7.1 names manifest traits stable individual differences in indicator levels, distinct from process-level `TRAITVAR` `φ_ξ`. Page 16 prints standardised matrices with the suffix `std` when appropriate. The printed example on p. 16 is `discreteDRIFTstd`, not `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`. Footnote 4 standardises using only the relevant variance, not the total. The relevant variance for that named indicator-level correlation is `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`, not process-level `TRAITVAR` and not residual `MANIFESTVAR` `θ`. The 2017-era source forms `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` only when `MANIFESTTRAITVAR != 0`, as `solve(sqrt(diag(MANIFESTTRAITVAR) + ridging)) %&% MANIFESTTRAITVAR` when `verbose = TRUE`. OpenMx `%&%` is `t(A) %*% B %*% A`. Unlike `TRAITVARstd`, that formation adds `diag(c(ridging), n.manifest)`. The default `ridging = FALSE` adds 0, not `0.0001`; that ridge is a numerical hack and is not this exact map. The scalar correlation is `ψ / ψ = 1` after strictly positive `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`. Form strictly positive `ψ` first, then `1 / √ψ`, then `(1 / √ψ) ψ (1 / √ψ)`. Unstandardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is defined for a zero trait; standardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is not. Zero `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` skips forming `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` in the 2017-era source and fails closed here. Indicator-level trait variance is an event-time structural quantity, so a non-event clock fails closed. `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` does not require stable `a < 0`. Distinct positive `ψ` recover the same 1. `trait / trait = 1` is `TRAITVARstd` and recovers the same number and remains a distinct named quantity. `θ` is `MANIFESTVAR` and is measurement error, not this correlation. Meredith (1993) remains unread (web search 2026-08-27T14:20Z: Springer/Cambridge Core paywalled; Unpaywall historically `is_oa: false`; Springer `content/pdf` is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, *Psychometrika, 56*, 177–196) remains unread on the same terms (DOI `10.1007/bf02294457`). Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix `expm`, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.

DOCUMENTATION.md

@@ -62,97 +62,12 @@ TEPP's approved PRD v0.4 and implementation plan are the primary product baselin
 | Provider-payload minimization doctoring | [`docs/research/provider-payload-minimization.md`](docs/research/provider-payload-minimization.md) |
 | Relation absence is not negative evidence | [`docs/research/relation-absence-not-negative.md`](docs/research/relation-absence-not-negative.md) |
 | Adaptive orchestration router doctoring | [`docs/research/adaptive-orchestration-router.md`](docs/research/adaptive-orchestration-router.md) |
-| Mention-confidence Brier doctoring | [`docs/research/mention-confidence-brier.md`](docs/research/mention-confidence-brier.md) |
-| Span-grounded mention extent doctoring | [`docs/research/span-grounded-mentions.md`](docs/research/span-grounded-mentions.md) |
-| Span-grounded mention numeric provenance | [`docs/doctoring/span-grounded-mentions.md`](docs/doctoring/span-grounded-mentions.md) |
-| Event-intelligence status-gate doctoring | [`docs/research/event-intelligence-status-gates.md`](docs/research/event-intelligence-status-gates.md) |
 | Stopword-deletion doctoring | [`docs/research/stopword-deletion.md`](docs/research/stopword-deletion.md) |
 | Topic log-ratio coordinate doctoring | [`docs/research/topic-logratio-coordinates.md`](docs/research/topic-logratio-coordinates.md) |
 | Hourly NIM OpenCode doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/hourly-nim-opencode-development.md`](docs/doctoring/hourly-nim-opencode-development.md) |
 | Analysis engine v1 doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-v1.md`](docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-v1.md) |
 | Analysis engine gap-closure doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-gap-closure.md`](docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-gap-closure.md) |
-| Corpus-split leakage-audit wire doctoring | [`docs/research/corpus-split-manifest-wire.md`](docs/research/corpus-split-manifest-wire.md) |
-| Unicode canonical-identity doctoring | [`docs/research/unicode-canonical-identity.md`](docs/research/unicode-canonical-identity.md) |
-| Change history | [`CHANGELOG.md`](CHANGELOG.md) |
-
-## Maturity vocabulary
-
-The canonical implementation-maturity vocabulary is defined in [`docs/adr/ADR_POLICY.md`](docs/adr/ADR_POLICY.md) and promotion evidence in [`docs/TRACEABILITY.md`](docs/TRACEABILITY.md). In particular, **an ADR with decision status `Accepted` is not automatically implemented or shipped.**
-
-- **implemented-main** — source is integrated on protected `main` and the relevant exact-current-head tests, scientific/recovery/validation evidence, security and supply-chain gates, and qualifying review required by live policy pass.
-- **active-PR** — implementation exists only on an open PR and is not a protected-main claim.
-- **partial** — an explicitly identified subset is implemented on protected main while the rest remains target work.
-- **accepted-target** — accepted PRD/ADR architecture not yet integrated.
-- **research-only** — evaluated research direction not accepted as production behavior.
-- **out-of-scope** — explicitly outside TEPP ownership.
-- **conceptual** — logical entity/service/model contract; not evidence of a migration or deployment.
-- **deployment-owned** — evidence depends on a concrete deployed environment or organization and cannot be claimed by repository design alone.
-- **external-assurance** — certification, attestation, legal opinion, or other independent assessment that TEPP cannot self-issue.
-
-## Documentation fitness
-
-The documentation graph is **design-sufficient** when a reviewer can reconstruct TEPP's product requirements, technical/scientific estimands, authority boundaries, temporal/event/membership semantics, data model, failure modes, security/privacy controls, validation strategy, API/integration contract, operability, research basis, ADR ownership/supersession, and release acceptance without chat history.
-
-It is **protected-main-sufficient** only after the canonical documents are integrated on protected `main`, remain semantically current with live code, and their required exact-head documentation/security/review gates pass. An active documentation PR can therefore be design-sufficient while the protected branch remains documentation-insufficient.
-
-At the time of this review, protected `main` at `7c29e7c971d7940e1fb3def1ed3aae2d1bc8ad4a` implements immutable evidence records/exact spans, the Rust workspace quality foundation, typed six-clock values/uncertain intervals (merged PR #8), Allen interval algebra and bounded path-consistency (merged PR #9), event ontology/membership, and PostgreSQL persistence through restore-integrity probes. Superseded PRs #5 and #6 remain historical lineage only, and drafts #93, #94, #97, #101, #102, #104, #108, #109, #111, and #112 are superseded non-landable lineage; unmerged or draft PRs are never implemented-main claims. The active-PR `prediction_contradiction` coverage gate requires observed Allen coverage (`during`, `starts`, `finishes`, or `equals`) before unmatched predicted mass may be authorized for promotion; `refuse_promotion` is that authority and not a contradiction-only filter — coverage may authorize promotion but does not convert a forecast into observed fact. Remaining TDT/CHRONOS intelligence, shared-latent topic estimation, GPU kernels, longitudinal ESEM/DSEM, visual analytics, production HTTP services, and deployment assurance stay accepted-target or deployment-owned unless a [`docs/TRACEABILITY.md`](docs/TRACEABILITY.md) row records a narrower implemented-main or partial subset.
-# TEPP Documentation Map
-
-TEPP's approved PRD v0.4 and implementation plan are the primary product baseline. This index makes the technical, data, scientific, security/privacy, integration, quality, operating, and assurance contracts discoverable without duplicating that source material.
-
-| Area | Canonical document |
-|---|---|
-| Approved product requirements | [`docs/product/prd-v0.4-approved.md`](docs/product/prd-v0.4-approved.md) |
-| Live product and technical gap baseline | [`docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md`](docs/product-technical-gap-baseline.md) |
-| Whole-conversation documentation fitness | [`docs/DOCUMENTATION_ASSESSMENT.md`](docs/DOCUMENTATION_ASSESSMENT.md) |
-| Technical requirements | [`docs/TRD.md`](docs/TRD.md) |
-| Architecture | [`ARCHITECTURE.md`](ARCHITECTURE.md) |
-| Modular/API integration contract | [`docs/API_CONTRACT.md`](docs/API_CONTRACT.md) |
-| naruon modular consumer contract | [`docs/connectors/naruon-artifact-consumer.md`](docs/connectors/naruon-artifact-consumer.md) |
-| contextual-orchestrator interpretation port | [`docs/connectors/contextual-orchestrator-interpretation-port.md`](docs/connectors/contextual-orchestrator-interpretation-port.md) |
-| UML/runtime/scientific flows | [`docs/UML.md`](docs/UML.md) |
-| Logical/physical ERD | [`docs/ERD.md`](docs/ERD.md) |
-| Security policy | [`SECURITY.md`](SECURITY.md) |
-| Threat model | [`docs/THREAT_MODEL.md`](docs/THREAT_MODEL.md) |
-| Privacy and data governance | [`docs/PRIVACY_DATA_GOVERNANCE.md`](docs/PRIVACY_DATA_GOVERNANCE.md) |
-| Compliance/assurance readiness | [`docs/COMPLIANCE_READINESS.md`](docs/COMPLIANCE_READINESS.md) |
-| LLM orchestration/test-time compute | [`docs/LLM_ORCHESTRATION.md`](docs/LLM_ORCHESTRATION.md) |
-| Test/scientific validation strategy | [`docs/TEST_STRATEGY.md`](docs/TEST_STRATEGY.md) |
-| Operability/recovery/release | [`docs/OPERABILITY.md`](docs/OPERABILITY.md) |
-| Requirement/research/evidence traceability | [`docs/TRACEABILITY.md`](docs/TRACEABILITY.md) |
-| Architecture decision index / ownership map | [`docs/adr/README.md`](docs/adr/README.md) |
-| ADR status, maturity, and supersession policy | [`docs/adr/ADR_POLICY.md`](docs/adr/ADR_POLICY.md) |
-| Delivery roadmap | [`docs/roadmaps/2026-08-05-tepp-delivery-roadmap.md`](docs/roadmaps/2026-08-05-tepp-delivery-roadmap.md) |
-| Foundation implementation plan | [`docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-temporal-event-foundation.md`](docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-temporal-event-foundation.md) |
-| Foundation validation ledger | [`docs/validation/temporal-event-foundation.md`](docs/validation/temporal-event-foundation.md) |
-| Standards and APA 7 literature | [`docs/research/standards-and-literature.md`](docs/research/standards-and-literature.md) |
-| Operational log / source-separation doctoring | [`docs/research/operational-log-source-separation.md`](docs/research/operational-log-source-separation.md) |
-| Interval cutoff eligibility doctoring | [`docs/research/interval-cutoff-eligibility.md`](docs/research/interval-cutoff-eligibility.md) |
-| Governance | [`GOVERNANCE.md`](GOVERNANCE.md) |
-| Agent development rules | [`AGENTS.md`](AGENTS.md) |
-| Agent context | [`CLAUDE.md`](CLAUDE.md) |
-| Hourly NIM product-development operations | [`docs/operations/HOURLY_NIM_PRODUCT_DEVELOPMENT.md`](docs/operations/HOURLY_NIM_PRODUCT_DEVELOPMENT.md) |
-| Actions workflow fleet audit | [`docs/operations/ACTIONS_WORKFLOW_FLEET.md`](docs/operations/ACTIONS_WORKFLOW_FLEET.md) |
-| Actions fleet research doctoring | [`docs/research/actions-workflow-fleet.md`](docs/research/actions-workflow-fleet.md) |
-| Mention-confidence Brier doctoring | [`docs/research/mention-confidence-brier.md`](docs/research/mention-confidence-brier.md) |
-| Span-grounded mention extent doctoring | [`docs/research/span-grounded-mentions.md`](docs/research/span-grounded-mentions.md) |
-| Span-grounded mention numeric provenance | [`docs/doctoring/span-grounded-mentions.md`](docs/doctoring/span-grounded-mentions.md) |
-| Event-intelligence status-gate doctoring | [`docs/research/event-intelligence-status-gates.md`](docs/research/event-intelligence-status-gates.md) |
-| VRAM budget / GPU fallback doctoring | [`docs/research/vram-budget-types.md`](docs/research/vram-budget-types.md) |
-| Causal-identification gate doctoring | [`docs/research/causal-identification-gate.md`](docs/research/causal-identification-gate.md) |
-| TDT story-segmentation `WindowDiff`/`Pk` doctoring | [`docs/research/tdt-story-segmentation.md`](docs/research/tdt-story-segmentation.md) |
-| CHRONOS prediction-calibration doctoring | [`docs/research/chronos-prediction-calibration.md`](docs/research/chronos-prediction-calibration.md) |
-| CHRONOS schema-slot calibration doctoring | [`docs/research/chronos-schema-slot-calibration.md`](docs/research/chronos-schema-slot-calibration.md) |
-| Event-tracking calibration doctoring | [`docs/research/event-tracking-calibration.md`](docs/research/event-tracking-calibration.md) |
-| Episode-membership identity doctoring | [`docs/research/episode-membership-identity.md`](docs/research/episode-membership-identity.md) |
-| Entity/project target SQL doctoring | [`docs/research/entity-project-sql.md`](docs/research/entity-project-sql.md) |
-| Scientific claim-promotion gate doctoring | [`docs/research/scientific-claim-promotion-gates.md`](docs/research/scientific-claim-promotion-gates.md) |
-| Retention/deletion/legal-hold doctoring | [`docs/research/retention-deletion-legal-hold.md`](docs/research/retention-deletion-legal-hold.md) |
-| Stopword-deletion doctoring | [`docs/research/stopword-deletion.md`](docs/research/stopword-deletion.md) |
-| Provider-payload minimization doctoring | [`docs/research/provider-payload-minimization.md`](docs/research/provider-payload-minimization.md) |
-| Relation absence is not negative evidence | [`docs/research/relation-absence-not-negative.md`](docs/research/relation-absence-not-negative.md) |
-| Adaptive orchestration router doctoring | [`docs/research/adaptive-orchestration-router.md`](docs/research/adaptive-orchestration-router.md) |
-| Hourly NIM OpenCode doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/hourly-nim-opencode-development.md`](docs/doctoring/hourly-nim-opencode-development.md) |
+| Inferred-status analysis-run doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/inferred-status-analysis-run.md`](docs/doctoring/inferred-status-analysis-run.md) |
 | Corpus-split leakage-audit wire doctoring | [`docs/research/corpus-split-manifest-wire.md`](docs/research/corpus-split-manifest-wire.md) |
 | Unicode canonical-identity doctoring | [`docs/research/unicode-canonical-identity.md`](docs/research/unicode-canonical-identity.md) |
 | Change history | [`CHANGELOG.md`](CHANGELOG.md) |

crates/analysis_engine/Cargo.toml

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ publish = false
 
 [dependencies]
 event_core = { path = "../event_core", version = "0.2.0" }
+inferred_status = { path = "../inferred_status", version = "0.2.0" }
 serde = { workspace = true }
 serde_json = { workspace = true }
 sha2 = { workspace = true }