feat(analysis): bind CWC within/between slopes to an analysis-run profile

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -38,6 +38,8 @@ All notable changes to TEPP are documented here. The format follows Keep a Chang
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+- `analysis_engine` binds Enders and Tofighi (2007) CWC within/between/contextual OLS (`recover_cluster_mean_within_between_slopes`) to the `longitudinal_cwc_v1` analysis-run output profile. Rows unavailable at the request cutoff are excluded; the digest-bound `tepp.longitudinal_cwc.v1` artifact records the three slopes and refuses causal promotion. This is not a new ESEM/DSEM estimator, not a Driver p.16 `std` restore, and not persistence.
+
 - `event_core` adds bounded Allen interval-consistency classification, atomic path-consistency closure, contradiction/resource refusals, and an explicit dependency-error fallback without claiming unrestricted global satisfiability.
 
 - `psychometric_core` recovers the Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12 `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`; §7.1, p. 19; p. 16 `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`; footnote 4; 2017-era ctsem `summary.ctsemFit.R`; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-27T14:20Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) scalar standardised manifest-trait variance on current main after `0ce16e8` dropped the pre-consolidation code while research notes already named the map (register items 83–84). Table 2 names `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` `Ψ_τ` the additional time-invariant variance-covariance on the measurement level and sets it `NULL` when there is no manifest trait. Equation 5 writes `Γ ~ N(τ, Ψ)` and names that covariance the manifest traits. Section 7.1 names manifest traits stable individual differences in indicator levels, distinct from process-level `TRAITVAR` `φ_ξ`. Page 16 prints standardised matrices with the suffix `std` when appropriate. The printed example on p. 16 is `discreteDRIFTstd`, not `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`. Footnote 4 standardises using only the relevant variance, not the total. The relevant variance for that named indicator-level correlation is `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`, not process-level `TRAITVAR` and not residual `MANIFESTVAR` `θ`. The 2017-era source forms `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` only when `MANIFESTTRAITVAR != 0`, as `solve(sqrt(diag(MANIFESTTRAITVAR) + ridging)) %&% MANIFESTTRAITVAR` when `verbose = TRUE`. OpenMx `%&%` is `t(A) %*% B %*% A`. Unlike `TRAITVARstd`, that formation adds `diag(c(ridging), n.manifest)`. The default `ridging = FALSE` adds 0, not `0.0001`; that ridge is a numerical hack and is not this exact map. The scalar correlation is `ψ / ψ = 1` after strictly positive `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`. Form strictly positive `ψ` first, then `1 / √ψ`, then `(1 / √ψ) ψ (1 / √ψ)`. Unstandardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is defined for a zero trait; standardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is not. Zero `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` skips forming `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` in the 2017-era source and fails closed here. Indicator-level trait variance is an event-time structural quantity, so a non-event clock fails closed. `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` does not require stable `a < 0`. Distinct positive `ψ` recover the same 1. `trait / trait = 1` is `TRAITVARstd` and recovers the same number and remains a distinct named quantity. `θ` is `MANIFESTVAR` and is measurement error, not this correlation. Meredith (1993) remains unread (web search 2026-08-27T14:20Z: Springer/Cambridge Core paywalled; Unpaywall historically `is_oa: false`; Springer `content/pdf` is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, *Psychometrika, 56*, 177–196) remains unread on the same terms (DOI `10.1007/bf02294457`). Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix `expm`, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.

crates/analysis_engine/Cargo.toml

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ publish = false
 
 [dependencies]
 event_core = { path = "../event_core", version = "0.2.0" }
+psychometric_core = { path = "../psychometric_core", version = "0.2.0" }
 serde = { workspace = true }
 serde_json = { workspace = true }
 sha2 = { workspace = true }
@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ uuid.workspace = true
 [dev-dependencies]
 corpus_split = { path = "../corpus_split", version = "0.2.0" }
 membership_core = { path = "../membership_core", version = "0.2.0" }
+psychometric_core = { path = "../psychometric_core", version = "0.2.0" }
 relation_graph = { path = "../relation_graph", version = "0.2.0" }
 
 [lints]

crates/analysis_engine/src/lib.rs

@@ -8,13 +8,16 @@
 //! through [`tepp_api`]. It deliberately does not claim latent-variable or topic
 //! estimation authority; those estimators remain separate scientific crates.
 //! estimation authority; it invokes estimators through their scientific crate
-//! contracts and preserves their artifact meaning.
+//! contracts and preserves their artifact meaning. Longitudinal CWC composition
+//! is invoked through [`psychometric_core`] and is not a causal estimand.
 
 mod case_deletion_refit;
 mod lineage_criterion;
+mod longitudinal_cwc_artifact;
 mod topic_context_posterior;
 mod topic_lineage_artifact;
 
+use psychometric_core::PsychometricError;
 use serde::Serialize;
 use sha2::{Digest, Sha256};
 use std::collections::BTreeSet;
@@ -46,6 +49,13 @@ pub use lineage_criterion::{
     LineageCriterionFit, LineageCriterionFitError, LineageCriterionObservation,
     fit_lineage_criterion_posteriors,
 };
+/// Longitudinal CWC composition artifact and execution contracts.
+pub use longitudinal_cwc_artifact::{
+    LONGITUDINAL_CWC_ARTIFACT_BYTE_LIMIT, LONGITUDINAL_CWC_ARTIFACT_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+    LONGITUDINAL_CWC_MODEL_CONTRACT_VERSION, LONGITUDINAL_CWC_OUTPUT_PROFILE,
+    LongitudinalClusterScore, LongitudinalCwcArtifact, LongitudinalCwcExecution,
+    execute_longitudinal_cwc_run,
+};
 /// Bounded posterior topic-context producer contract and record types.
 pub use topic_context_posterior::{
     TOPIC_CONTEXT_POSTERIOR_BYTE_LIMIT, TOPIC_CONTEXT_POSTERIOR_SCHEMA_VERSION,
@@ -248,6 +258,10 @@ pub enum AnalysisEngineError {
     TopicMeasurement(TopicMeasurementError),
     /// A topic-lineage artifact violated its bounded schema or count invariants.
     InvalidTopicLineageArtifact,
+    /// A psychometric recovery rejected the offered coordinates.
+    Psychometric(PsychometricError),
+    /// A longitudinal CWC artifact violated its bounded schema or count invariants.
+    InvalidLongitudinalCwcArtifact,
 }
 
 impl fmt::Display for AnalysisEngineError {
@@ -262,6 +276,8 @@ impl fmt::Display for AnalysisEngineError {
             Self::LimitExceeded => "analysis corpus exceeded its execution bound",
             Self::TopicMeasurement(error) => return error.fmt(formatter),
             Self::InvalidTopicLineageArtifact => "invalid topic lineage artifact",
+            Self::Psychometric(error) => return error.fmt(formatter),
+            Self::InvalidLongitudinalCwcArtifact => "invalid longitudinal CWC artifact",
         };
         formatter.write_str(message)
     }
@@ -281,6 +297,12 @@ impl From<TopicMeasurementError> for AnalysisEngineError {
     }
 }
 
+impl From<PsychometricError> for AnalysisEngineError {
+    fn from(error: PsychometricError) -> Self {
+        Self::Psychometric(error)
+    }
+}
+
 /// Execute the cutoff-safe temporal evidence readiness analysis.
 ///
 /// Evidence whose `available_time` is later than the request cutoff is excluded
@@ -413,7 +435,8 @@ mod tests {
     use super::{
         ANALYSIS_ARTIFACT_SCHEMA_VERSION, ANALYSIS_STATISTIC_COUNT, AnalysisCorpus,
         AnalysisEngineError, AnalysisEvidenceUnit, MAX_ANALYSIS_IDENTIFIER_BYTES,
-        MAX_EVIDENCE_UNITS, TopicMeasurementError, add_membership_count, execute_analysis_run,
+        MAX_EVIDENCE_UNITS, PsychometricError, TopicMeasurementError, add_membership_count,
+        execute_analysis_run,
     };
     use temporal_core::{AvailableTime, EventTime};
     use tepp_api::{AnalysisRunAccepted, AnalysisRunRequest, AnalysisRunTerminalState, ApiError};
@@ -681,6 +704,14 @@ mod tests {
                 AnalysisEngineError::InvalidTopicLineageArtifact,
                 "invalid topic lineage artifact",
             ),
+            (
+                AnalysisEngineError::Psychometric(PsychometricError::CausalUnderidentified),
+                "temporal precedence is not causal identification",
+            ),
+            (
+                AnalysisEngineError::InvalidLongitudinalCwcArtifact,
+                "invalid longitudinal CWC artifact",
+            ),
         ];
         for (error, message) in messages {
             assert_eq!(error.to_string(), message);
@@ -689,6 +720,11 @@ mod tests {
         assert_eq!(converted.to_string(), "invalid API wire payload");
         let from_topic: AnalysisEngineError = TopicMeasurementError::DidNotConverge.into();
         assert_eq!(from_topic.to_string(), "topic estimator did not converge");
+        let from_psych: AnalysisEngineError = PsychometricError::CausalUnderidentified.into();
+        assert_eq!(
+            from_psych.to_string(),
+            "temporal precedence is not causal identification"
+        );
         assert_eq!(
             add_membership_count(u64::MAX, 1),
             Err(AnalysisEngineError::ArithmeticOverflow)