feat(event): bounded Allen/CHRONOS interval consistency (#170)

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ All notable changes to TEPP are documented here. The format follows Keep a Chang
 
 ### Added
 
+- **TDT/CHRONOS durable result contract**: canonical typed JSON and deterministic GraphML now export the actual bounded Allen reasoner result, observed/derived status, and conservative accepted-assertion support; canonical payload digest and `tdt_chronos_interval_consistency_v1` type bind the immutable bytes into ADR 0013's append-only `model_artifact` chain.
 - **Analysis engine**: deterministic end-to-end analysis-run execution with cutoff-safe eligibility, immutable evidence binding, and reproducibility manifests (`analysis_engine` crate).
 - **Restore Driver p.16 `MANIFESTVARstd`**: `recover_standardised_manifest_variance` maps `θ / θ = 1` with strictly positive `MANIFESTVAR`, refusing unstandardised manifest-variance, `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`, and Equation 5 `Var(y)` substitutions (`psychometric_core`).
 - **Posterior network estimator**: cross-draw Pearson correlations in ILR space, jackknife SE and CI, Benjamini–Hochberg FDR edge admission, nonparametric bootstrap stability, greedy modularity consensus clustering (`network_analysis` crate).
@@ -37,6 +38,8 @@ All notable changes to TEPP are documented here. The format follows Keep a Chang
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+- `event_core` adds bounded Allen interval-consistency classification, atomic path-consistency closure, contradiction/resource refusals, and an explicit dependency-error fallback without claiming unrestricted global satisfiability.
+
 - `psychometric_core` recovers the Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12 `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`; §7.1, p. 19; p. 16 `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`; footnote 4; 2017-era ctsem `summary.ctsemFit.R`; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-27T14:20Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) scalar standardised manifest-trait variance on current main after `0ce16e8` dropped the pre-consolidation code while research notes already named the map (register items 83–84). Table 2 names `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` `Ψ_τ` the additional time-invariant variance-covariance on the measurement level and sets it `NULL` when there is no manifest trait. Equation 5 writes `Γ ~ N(τ, Ψ)` and names that covariance the manifest traits. Section 7.1 names manifest traits stable individual differences in indicator levels, distinct from process-level `TRAITVAR` `φ_ξ`. Page 16 prints standardised matrices with the suffix `std` when appropriate. The printed example on p. 16 is `discreteDRIFTstd`, not `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`. Footnote 4 standardises using only the relevant variance, not the total. The relevant variance for that named indicator-level correlation is `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`, not process-level `TRAITVAR` and not residual `MANIFESTVAR` `θ`. The 2017-era source forms `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` only when `MANIFESTTRAITVAR != 0`, as `solve(sqrt(diag(MANIFESTTRAITVAR) + ridging)) %&% MANIFESTTRAITVAR` when `verbose = TRUE`. OpenMx `%&%` is `t(A) %*% B %*% A`. Unlike `TRAITVARstd`, that formation adds `diag(c(ridging), n.manifest)`. The default `ridging = FALSE` adds 0, not `0.0001`; that ridge is a numerical hack and is not this exact map. The scalar correlation is `ψ / ψ = 1` after strictly positive `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`. Form strictly positive `ψ` first, then `1 / √ψ`, then `(1 / √ψ) ψ (1 / √ψ)`. Unstandardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is defined for a zero trait; standardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is not. Zero `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` skips forming `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` in the 2017-era source and fails closed here. Indicator-level trait variance is an event-time structural quantity, so a non-event clock fails closed. `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` does not require stable `a < 0`. Distinct positive `ψ` recover the same 1. `trait / trait = 1` is `TRAITVARstd` and recovers the same number and remains a distinct named quantity. `θ` is `MANIFESTVAR` and is measurement error, not this correlation. Meredith (1993) remains unread (web search 2026-08-27T14:20Z: Springer/Cambridge Core paywalled; Unpaywall historically `is_oa: false`; Springer `content/pdf` is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, *Psychometrika, 56*, 177–196) remains unread on the same terms (DOI `10.1007/bf02294457`). Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix `expm`, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.
 
 - `psychometric_core` recovers the Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12 `TRAITVAR`; §7.1, pp. 18–19; p. 16 `TRAITVARstd`; footnote 4; 2017-era ctsem `summary.ctsemFit.R`; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-26T17:45Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) scalar standardised trait variance on current main after `0ce16e8` dropped the pre-consolidation code while research notes already named the map (register items 81–82). Table 2 names `TRAITVAR` `φ_ξ` the latent trait variance/covariance and sets it `NULL` when there is no trait. Section 7.1 names traits the stable between-subject differences (unit-level unobserved heterogeneity). Page 16 prints standardised matrices with the suffix `std` when appropriate. The printed example on p. 16 is `discreteDRIFTstd`, not `TRAITVARstd`. Footnote 4 standardises using only the relevant variance, not the total. The relevant variance for that named between-subject correlation is `TRAITVAR`, not free first-occasion `T0VAR` and not process-dynamics `asymDIFFUSION`. The 2017-era source forms `TRAITVARstd` only when `TRAITVAR != 0`, as `solve(sqrt(diag(TRAITVAR))) %&% TRAITVAR` when `verbose = TRUE`. OpenMx `%&%` is `t(A) %*% B %*% A`. Unlike `T0VARstd`, that formation uses `diag(diag(TRAITVAR))` and does not add `diag(c(ridging))`. The ridge is a `T0VAR` numerical hack and is not this exact map. The scalar correlation is `trait / trait = 1` after strictly positive `TRAITVAR`. Form strictly positive `trait` first, then `1 / √trait`, then `(1 / √trait) trait (1 / √trait)`. Unstandardised `TRAITVAR` is defined for a zero trait; standardised `TRAITVAR` is not. Zero `TRAITVAR` skips forming `TRAITVARstd` in the 2017-era source and fails closed here. Between-subject variance is an event-time structural quantity, so a non-event clock fails closed. `TRAITVAR` does not require stable `a < 0`. Distinct positive `trait` recover the same 1. `p_0 / p_0 = 1` is `T0VARstd` and recovers the same number and remains a distinct named quantity. `t0_b² v` is `addedT0TIPREDVAR` and is extra first-occasion TI variance, not this correlation. Meredith (1993) remains unread (Unpaywall 2026-08-26T17:20Z: `is_oa: false`; OpenAlex closed; Springer `content/pdf` is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, *Psychometrika, 56*, 177–196) remains unread on the same terms (DOI `10.1007/bf02294457`; Unpaywall `is_oa: false`). Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix `expm`, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.

crates/event_core/Cargo.toml

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ publish = false
 evidence_core = { path = "../evidence_core", version = "0.2.0" }
 serde.workspace = true
 serde_json.workspace = true
+sha2.workspace = true
 temporal_core = { path = "../temporal_core", version = "0.2.0" }
 uuid.workspace = true
 

crates/event_core/src/error.rs

@@ -70,6 +70,24 @@ pub enum EventError {
     IntelligenceWorkflowIsNotEventInstance,
     /// A TDT/CHRONOS composition was treated as a state transition.
     IntelligenceWorkflowIsNotStateTransition,
+    /// Interval-consistency resource limits were zero.
+    IntervalConsistencyInvalidLimits,
+    /// An interval variable identifier does not belong to this network.
+    IntervalConsistencyUnknownVariable,
+    /// An asserted qualitative relation set was empty.
+    IntervalConsistencyEmptyRelationSet,
+    /// A configured interval-consistency resource maximum was exceeded.
+    IntervalConsistencyLimitExceeded,
+    /// Path consistency proved that no Allen relation remains possible.
+    IntervalConsistencyContradiction,
+    /// Quantitative Allen classification received a nonproper interval.
+    IntervalConsistencyRequiresProperBoundedInterval,
+    /// An interval-consistency dependency returned an unsupported error.
+    IntervalConsistencyDependencyError,
+    /// Bounded path consistency was treated as unrestricted global SAT.
+    IntervalConsistencyIsNotUnrestrictedSatisfiability,
+    /// An interval contradiction was treated as an event instance.
+    IntervalContradictionIsNotEventInstance,
 }
 
 impl fmt::Display for EventError {
@@ -119,6 +137,29 @@ impl fmt::Display for EventError {
             Self::IntelligenceWorkflowIsNotStateTransition => {
                 "intelligence workflow is not a state transition"
             }
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyInvalidLimits => "invalid interval consistency limits",
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyUnknownVariable => "unknown interval consistency variable",
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyEmptyRelationSet => {
+                "interval consistency relation set is empty"
+            }
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyLimitExceeded => {
+                "interval consistency resource limit exceeded"
+            }
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyContradiction => {
+                "interval consistency network is contradictory"
+            }
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyRequiresProperBoundedInterval => {
+                "interval consistency requires proper bounded intervals"
+            }
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyDependencyError => {
+                "unsupported interval consistency dependency error"
+            }
+            Self::IntervalConsistencyIsNotUnrestrictedSatisfiability => {
+                "interval consistency is not unrestricted satisfiability"
+            }
+            Self::IntervalContradictionIsNotEventInstance => {
+                "interval contradiction is not an event instance"
+            }
         };
         formatter.write_str(message)
     }
@@ -250,6 +291,42 @@ mod tests {
                 EventError::IntelligenceWorkflowIsNotStateTransition,
                 "intelligence workflow is not a state transition",
             ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyInvalidLimits,
+                "invalid interval consistency limits",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyUnknownVariable,
+                "unknown interval consistency variable",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyEmptyRelationSet,
+                "interval consistency relation set is empty",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyLimitExceeded,
+                "interval consistency resource limit exceeded",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyContradiction,
+                "interval consistency network is contradictory",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyRequiresProperBoundedInterval,
+                "interval consistency requires proper bounded intervals",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyDependencyError,
+                "unsupported interval consistency dependency error",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalConsistencyIsNotUnrestrictedSatisfiability,
+                "interval consistency is not unrestricted satisfiability",
+            ),
+            (
+                EventError::IntervalContradictionIsNotEventInstance,
+                "interval contradiction is not an event instance",
+            ),
         ] {
             assert_eq!(error.to_string(), message);
         }