COVID-19-forecasting

A linear regression model to forecasting the Italian new COVID-19 cases of next days.

The data are provided by the Italian Civil Protection and can be consulted here: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19. New daily data are available from 18.00.

Description

I predict the new COVID-19 italian cases for:

• Total cases
• New positive cases (hospitalized + home isolation)
• Daily intensive Care patients

The predictions are for the next 3 days.

Note

• I fixed the polynomial degree, depending on the tasks mentioned above.
• Added daily intensive care patients to the task (from 30-03).
• Updated number of days to forecast.

Results

Every day I will update the table with the number of cases actually verified and the model predictions for the next day.

Data	Total cases	Total cases - prediction	New positive cases	New positive cases - prediction
16-03	27980	29070	2470	3329
17-03	31506	32202	2989	3107
18-03	35713	35365	2648	3256
19-03	41035	39514	4480	3054
20-03	47021	45447	4670	4042
21-03	53578	52559	4821	4739
22-03	59138	60380	3957	5215
23-03	63927	66679	3780	4961
24-03	69176	71134	3780	4614
25-03	74386	75374	3491	4224
26-03	80539	79570	4492	3842
27-03	86498	84926	4401	4037
28-03	92472	90641	3651	4106
29-03	97689	96544	3815	3778
30-03	101739	101754	1648	3592
31-03	105792	105501	2107	2477
01-04	110574	108659	2937	1860
02-04	115242	112405	2477	1736
03-04	119827	116523	2339	1469
04-04	124632	120889	2886	1227
05-04	128948	125679	2972	1275
06-04	132547	130346	1941	1367
07-04	135586	134393	880	1076
08-04	139422	137693	1195	482
09-04	143626	137693	1615	1727
10-04	147577	145435	1396	1514
11-04	152271	149761	1996	1287
12-04	156363	154779	1984	1203
13-04	159516	159775	1363	1128
14-04	162488	164062	675	953
15-04	165155	167776	1127	680
16-04	168941	170933	1189	519
17-04	172434	174528	355	389
18-04	175925	178234	809	138
19-04	178972	182022	486	-8
20-04	181228	185582	-20	-187
21-04	183957	188495	-528	-423
22-04	187327	191288	-10	-709
23-04	189973	194413	-851	-884
24-04	192994	197343	-321	-1163
25-04	195351	200370	-680	-1331
26-04	197675	203088	256	-1531
27-04	199414	205583	-290	-1574
28-04	201505	207607	-608	-1684
29-04	203591	209516	-548	-1824
30-04	205463	211367	-3106	-1938
01-05	207428	213084	-608	-2380
02-05	209328	214777	-239	-2449
03-05	210717	216441	-525	-2458
04-05	211938	217840	-199	-2499
05-05	213013	218984	-1513	-2490
06-05	214457	219892	-6939	-2641
07-05	215858	220837	-1904	-3444
08-05	217185	221812	-1663	-3566
09-05	218268	222796	-3119	-3644
10-05	219814	223690	-1518	-3883
11-05	219814	220508	-836	-3911
12-05	221216	221479	-1222	-3853
13-05	222104	222567	-2809	-3839
14-05	223096	223603	-2017	-4000
15-05	223885	224637	-4370	-4057
16-05	224760	225618	-1883	-4363
17-05	225435	226591	-1836	-4373
18-05	225886	227505	-1798	-4372
19-05	226699	228313	-1424	-4364
20-05	Update at 18.00	229146	Update at 18.00	-1480

Update for daily intensive care patients

Data	Daily intensive care	Daily intensive care - prediction
30-03	75	108
31-03	42	90
01-04	12	66
02-04	20	40
03-04	15	19
04-04	-74	1
05-04	-17	-34
06-04	-79	-51
07-04	-106	-78
08-04	-99	-107
09-04	-88	-130
10-04	-108	-147
11-04	-116	-165
12-04	-38	-182
13-04	-83	-182
14-04	-74	-189
15-04	-107	-194
16-04	-43	-203
17-04	-79	-216
18-04	-124	-225
19-04	-98	-224
20-04	-62	- 226
21-04	-102	-222
22-04	-87	-224
23-04	-117	-71
24-04	-94	-78
25-04	-71	-83
26-04	-93	-86
27-04	-53	-90
28-04	-93	-92
29-04	-68	-96
30-04	-101	-98
01-05	-116	-102
02-05	-39	-106
03-05	-38	-105
04-05	-22	-106
05-05	-52	-105
06-05	-94	-105
07-05	-22	-108
08-05	-143	-107
09-05	-134	-112
10-05	-7	-117
11-05	-28	-114
12-05	-47	-113
13-05	-59	-113
14-05	-38	-114
15-05	-47	-113
16-05	-33	-113
17-05	-13	-112
18-05	-13	-110
19-05	-33	-108
20-05	Update at 18.00	-107