diff --git a/changelog.d/24415_histogram_incremental_conversion.fix.md b/changelog.d/24415_histogram_incremental_conversion.fix.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..3aa1c23388f83
--- /dev/null
+++ b/changelog.d/24415_histogram_incremental_conversion.fix.md
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+Fixed histogram incremental conversion by ensuring all individual buckets increase or reinitializing the entire metric.
+
+authors: dd-sebastien-lb
diff --git a/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/mod.rs b/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/mod.rs
index 884fbbdc1d81e..5e956f8042c02 100644
--- a/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/mod.rs
+++ b/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/mod.rs
@@ -896,6 +896,33 @@ mod test {
         assert!(!new_reset_histogram.subtract(&old_histogram));
     }
 
+    #[test]
+    fn subtract_aggregated_histograms_bucket_redistribution() {
+        // Test for issue #24415: when total count is higher but individual bucket counts is sometimes lower
+        let old_histogram = Metric::new(
+            "histogram",
+            MetricKind::Absolute,
+            MetricValue::AggregatedHistogram {
+                count: 15,
+                sum: 15.0,
+                buckets: buckets!(1.0 => 10, 2.0 => 5),
+            },
+        );
+
+        let mut new_histogram_with_redistribution = Metric::new(
+            "histogram",
+            MetricKind::Absolute,
+            MetricValue::AggregatedHistogram {
+                count: 20,
+                sum: 20.0,
+                // Total count is higher (20 > 15), but bucket1 count is lower (8 < 10)
+                buckets: buckets!(1.0 => 8, 2.0 => 12),
+            },
+        );
+
+        assert!(!new_histogram_with_redistribution.subtract(&old_histogram));
+    }
+
     #[test]
     // `too_many_lines` is mostly just useful for production code but we're not
     // able to flag the lint on only for non-test.
diff --git a/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/value.rs b/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/value.rs
index ce21e80bbec24..7e301ae7943ce 100644
--- a/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/value.rs
+++ b/lib/vector-core/src/event/metric/value.rs
@@ -327,6 +327,11 @@ impl MetricValue {
             // fewer values -- would not make sense, since buckets should never be able to have negative counts... and
             // it's not clear that a saturating subtraction is technically correct either.  Instead, we avoid having to
             // make that decision, and simply force the metric to be reinitialized.
+            //
+            // We also check that each individual bucket count is >= the corresponding count in the
+            // other histogram, since bucket value redistribution (e.g., after a source restart or
+            // cache eviction) can cause individual buckets to have lower counts even when the total
+            // count is higher. Failing here leads to the metric being reinitialized.
             (
                 Self::AggregatedHistogram {
                     buckets,
@@ -343,7 +348,7 @@ impl MetricValue {
                 && buckets
                     .iter()
                     .zip(buckets2.iter())
-                    .all(|(b1, b2)| b1.upper_limit == b2.upper_limit) =>
+                    .all(|(b1, b2)| b1.upper_limit == b2.upper_limit && b1.count >= b2.count) =>
             {
                 for (b1, b2) in buckets.iter_mut().zip(buckets2) {
                     b1.count -= b2.count;