Assignment4_MMV

#Assignment 4 2021/02/12

MMV is a viral infection that can cause a serious disease (called MMD)

MMD patients are unable to control their natural urge to make mathematical models 
that attempt to describe biological phenomena

The rapid MMV test gives a positive result:

100% of the time for people with the virus

5% of the time for people without the virus

A certain population has a prevalence of 1%

You pick a person from this population at random, and test them, and the test is 
positive.

What is the probability that they have MMV?
You learn that your friend has a positive rapid test for MMV. What do you tell 
them?


________________________________________________________________________________

#Definitions 
Positive for Virus: PV
Positive for Test: PT
Alternative: nPV or nPT

#Final Answer
Based of the data above there are four numbers to be considered:

1. Prob of PV and PT: 0.01*1 = 0.01
2. Prob of PV and nPT: 0.99*0 = 0
3. Prob of nPV and PT = 0.99*0.05 = 0.05
4. Prob of nPV and nPT = 0.99*0.95 = 0.94

Since we know that the test is positive in our example:

Prob of PV becomes: 0.01/(0.01+0.05) = 0.17 

I would tell this friend that since he tested positive for the test, there is a 
17% chance that he has actually got the MMV.

## BMB: this is fine. See solutions for more possible considerations.