simplify Dockerfile (#113)

* simplify Dockerfile

## Overview
This PR uses updated versions of Python and `prophet` to greatly simplify the python environment setup in the Dockerfile. The code has been tested by creating a local Docker container, and sample outputs were written to the following tables in `moz-fx-data-bq-data-science.bochocki`:
- `tmp_desktop_kpi_forecast`
- `tmp_desktop_kpi_forecast_confidences`
- `tmp_mobile_kpi_forecast`
- `tmp_mobile_kpi_forecast_confidences`

## Additional Changes
- `.gitignore`: ignore additional filetypes
- `kpi_forecasting.py`: set confidence intervals `target` from `config` instead of relying on hardcoded `"desktop"`. This `target` is overwritten in `write_confidence_intervals_to_bigquery` [here](https://github.com/mozilla/docker-etl/blob/4cfbec915375343023944d1ca23f527251a5ada8/jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/Utils/DBWriter.py#L116), but I think this change makes the it clear that we're not unintentionally using "desktop" labels on "mobile" forecasts.
- `PosteriorSampling.py`: minor refactoring required to resolve errors and deprecation warnings that are now being raised by pandas as a result of package upgrades.
- `README.md`: update examples
- `requirements.txt`: updated packages to get easier-install versions of `prophet` and `statsforecast`.

* black format

* change `MAINTAINER` label

* Revert "change `MAINTAINER` label"

This reverts commit 27229dd.

* include pytest-black

Author: bochocki

jobs/kpi-forecasting/.gitignore

@@ -1,3 +1,6 @@
+.cache
 .idea
-.vscode
+.local
 .python-version
+.python_history
+.vscode

jobs/kpi-forecasting/Dockerfile

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
-FROM python:3.8
-MAINTAINER Perry McManis <pmcmanis@mozilla.com>
+FROM python:3.10
+LABEL maintainer="Brad Ochocki <bochocki@mozilla.com>"
 
 # https://github.com/mozilla-services/Dockerflow/blob/master/docs/building-container.md
 ARG USER_ID="10001"
@@ -12,19 +12,11 @@ RUN groupadd --gid ${USER_ID} ${GROUP_ID} && \
 
 WORKDIR ${HOME}
 
-RUN apt install gcc
-RUN apt install g++
-
 RUN pip install --upgrade pip
 
-RUN pip install pystan==2.19.1.1
-RUN python3 -m pip install prophet --no-cache-dir
-
 COPY requirements.txt requirements.txt
 RUN pip install -r requirements.txt
 
-RUN pip install git+https://github.com/Nixtla/statsforecast.git
-
 COPY . .
 
 # Drop root and change ownership of the application folder to the user

jobs/kpi-forecasting/README.md

@@ -21,9 +21,9 @@ pip install -r requirements.txt
 Run the scripts with:
 
 ```sh
-python kpi_forecasting.py -c yaml/desktop.yaml
+python ~/kpi-forecasting/kpi_forecasting.py -c ~/kpi-forecasting/yaml/desktop_non_cumulative.yaml
 
-python kpi_forecasting.py -c yaml/mobile.yaml
+python ~/kpi-forecasting/kpi_forecasting.py -c ~/kpi-forecasting/yaml/mobile_non_cumulative.yaml
 ```
 
 ### On SQL Queries And Preprocessing

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/Utils/AutoArimaFit.py

@@ -9,7 +9,6 @@
 
 
 def run_forecast_arima(dataset: pd.DataFrame, config: dict) -> pd.DataFrame:
-
     fit_parameters = config[
         "forecast_parameters"
     ].copy()  # you must force a copy here or it assigns a reference to

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/Utils/PosteriorSampling.py

@@ -31,10 +31,9 @@ def get_confidence_intervals(
             uncertainty_samples["ds"] > np.datetime64(final_observed_sample_date)
         ]
         .groupby("{}".format(aggregation_unit_of_time))
-        .sum()
+        .sum(numeric_only=True)
     )
 
-    print(samples_df_grouped.tail())
     # start the aggregated dataframe with the mean of the uncertainty samples
     uncertainty_samples_aggregated = samples_df_grouped.mean(axis=1).reset_index()
 
@@ -71,6 +70,8 @@ def get_confidence_intervals(
         columns={"y": "value"}
     ).sort_values(by="{}".format(aggregation_unit_of_time))
 
+    observed_aggregated = observed_aggregated.astype({"value": np.float64})
+
     # check if whether there are overlap in actual and forecast at the group level
     if (
         aggregation_unit_of_time == "ds_month"
@@ -83,10 +84,12 @@ def get_confidence_intervals(
         ).dayofyear
         != 1
     ):
-        uncertainty_samples_aggregated.at[0, 1:] = (
-            uncertainty_samples_aggregated.iloc[0, 1:]
-            + observed_aggregated.iloc[-1].value
-        )
+        # add observed samples from current time period to uncertainty samples for
+        # the remainder of the period.
+        uncertainty_samples_aggregated.iloc[0, 1:] += observed_aggregated["value"].iloc[
+            -1
+        ]
+
         observed_aggregated = observed_aggregated.loc[
             observed_aggregated[aggregation_unit_of_time]
             < observed_aggregated[aggregation_unit_of_time].max()

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/kpi_forecasting.py

@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ def main() -> None:
             aggregation_unit_of_time=config["confidences"],
             asofdate=predictions["ds"].max(),
             final_observed_sample_date=dataset["ds"].max(),
-            target="desktop",
+            target=config["target"],
         )
 
         write_predictions_to_bigquery(predictions, config)

jobs/kpi-forecasting/requirements.txt

@@ -1,94 +1,117 @@
+adagio==0.2.4
+ansi2html==1.8.0
+antlr4-python3-runtime==4.11.1
 appdirs==1.4.4
-attrs==20.3.0
-bcrypt==3.2.0
-beautifulsoup4==4.10.0
-BigQuery-Python==1.15.0
-black==22.3.0
-cachetools==4.2.4
-certifi==2021.10.8
-cffi==1.15.0
-charset-normalizer==2.0.12
-click==8.0.4
-cmdstanpy==0.9.68
+asttokens==2.2.1
+backcall==0.2.0
+black==23.3.0
+blinker==1.6.2
+cachetools==5.3.0
+certifi==2023.5.7
+charset-normalizer==3.1.0
+click==8.1.3
+cmdstanpy==1.1.0
+comm==0.1.3
+contourpy==1.0.7
 convertdate==2.4.0
-cryptography==36.0.1
 cycler==0.11.0
-Cython==0.29.28
-ephem==4.1.3
-flake8==3.8.4
-google-api-core==1.31.5
-google-api-python-client==2.38.0
-google-auth-httplib2==0.1.0
-google-auth-oauthlib==0.5.0
-google-auth==1.35.0
-google-cloud-bigquery-storage==1.0.0
-google-cloud-bigquery==1.27.2
-google-cloud-core==1.7.2
-google-cloud-storage==1.31.0
-google-crc32c==1.3.0
-google-resumable-media==1.3.3
-google==3.0.0
-googleapis-common-protos==1.55.0
-grpcio==1.44.0
-hijri-converter==2.2.3
-holidays==0.16
-httplib2==0.20.4
-idna==3.3
-iniconfig==1.1.1
-Jinja2==2.11.2
-joblib==1.2.0
-kiwisolver==1.3.2
-korean-lunar-calendar==0.2.1
+dash==2.9.3
+dash-core-components==2.0.0
+dash-html-components==2.0.0
+dash-table==5.0.0
+db-dtypes==1.1.1
+debugpy==1.6.7
+decorator==5.1.1
+ephem==4.1.4
+exceptiongroup==1.1.1
+executing==1.2.0
+Flask==2.3.2
+fonttools==4.39.3
+fs==2.4.16
+fugue==0.8.3
+fugue-sql-antlr==0.1.6
+google-api-core==2.11.0
+google-auth==2.17.3
+google-cloud-bigquery==3.10.0
+google-cloud-core==2.3.2
+google-crc32c==1.5.0
+google-resumable-media==2.5.0
+googleapis-common-protos==1.59.0
+grpcio==1.54.0
+grpcio-status==1.54.0
+hijri-converter==2.3.1
+holidays==0.24
+idna==3.4
+iniconfig==2.0.0
+ipykernel==6.23.0
+ipython==8.13.2
+itsdangerous==2.1.2
+jedi==0.18.2
+Jinja2==3.1.2
+jupyter-dash==0.4.2
+jupyter_client==8.2.0
+jupyter_core==5.3.0
+kiwisolver==1.4.4
+korean-lunar-calendar==0.3.1
+llvmlite==0.40.0
 LunarCalendar==0.0.9
-MarkupSafe==1.1.1
-matplotlib==3.3.2
-mccabe==0.6.1
-more-itertools==8.6.0
-mypy-extensions==0.4.3
-numpy
-oauthlib==3.2.0
-packaging==21.3
-pandas-gbq==0.13.2
-pandas==1.3.5
-paramiko==2.9.2
-pathspec==0.9.0
-Pillow==9.0.1
-plotly==4.9.0
-pluggy==0.13.1
-protobuf==3.19.4
-py==1.10.0
-pyarrow==7.0.0
-pyasn1-modules==0.2.8
-pyasn1==0.4.8
-pycodestyle==2.6.0
-pycparser==2.21
-pydata-google-auth==1.3.0
-pyflakes==2.2.0
-PyMeeus==0.5.11
-PyNaCl==1.5.0
-pyparsing==2.4.7
-pytest-black==0.3.11
-pytest-flake8==1.0.6
-pytest==6.0.2
+MarkupSafe==2.1.2
+matplotlib==3.7.1
+matplotlib-inline==0.1.6
+mypy-extensions==1.0.0
+nest-asyncio==1.5.6
+numba==0.57.0
+numpy==1.24.3
+orjson==3.8.12
+packaging==23.1
+pandas==1.5.3
+parso==0.8.3
+pathspec==0.11.1
+patsy==0.5.3
+pexpect==4.8.0
+pickleshare==0.7.5
+Pillow==9.5.0
+platformdirs==3.5.0
+plotly==5.14.1
+plotly-resampler==0.8.3.2
+pluggy==1.0.0
+prompt-toolkit==3.0.38
+prophet==1.1.2
+proto-plus==1.22.2
+protobuf==4.23.0
+psutil==5.9.5
+ptyprocess==0.7.0
+pure-eval==0.2.2
+pyarrow==12.0.0
+pyasn1==0.5.0
+pyasn1-modules==0.3.0
+Pygments==2.15.1
+PyMeeus==0.5.12
+pyparsing==3.0.9
+pytest==7.3.1
+pytest-black==0.3.12
 python-dateutil==2.8.2
-pytz==2021.3
+pytz==2023.3
 PyYAML==6.0
-regex==2020.11.13
-requests-oauthlib==1.3.1
-requests==2.27.1
-retrying==1.3.3
-rsa==4.8
-setuptools-git==1.2
+pyzmq==25.0.2
+qpd==0.4.1
+requests==2.30.0
+retrying==1.3.4
+rsa==4.9
+scipy==1.10.1
 six==1.16.0
-soupsieve==2.3.1
-statsforecast==1.1.0
-statsmodels==0.13.2
-storage==0.0.4.3
-threadpoolctl==3.1.0
+sqlglot==12.2.0
+stack-data==0.6.2
+statsforecast==1.5.0
+statsmodels==0.14.0
+tenacity==8.2.2
 toml==0.10.2
-tqdm==4.63.0
-typed-ast==1.5.4
-typing-extensions==3.10.0.0
-ujson==5.1.0
-uritemplate==4.1.1
-urllib3==1.26.8
+tomli==2.0.1
+tornado==6.3.1
+tqdm==4.65.0
+trace-updater==0.0.9.1
+traitlets==5.9.0
+triad==0.8.7
+urllib3==2.0.2
+wcwidth==0.2.6
+Werkzeug==2.3.4