diff --git a/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.cc b/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.cc
index d94aafa389004..06b82d8eb5e46 100644
--- a/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.cc
+++ b/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.cc
@@ -95,7 +95,8 @@ float ConnPoolImplBase::perUpstreamPreconnectRatio() const {
   }
 }
 
-void ConnPoolImplBase::tryCreateNewConnections() {
+ConnPoolImplBase::ConnectionResult ConnPoolImplBase::tryCreateNewConnections() {
+  ConnPoolImplBase::ConnectionResult result;
   // Somewhat arbitrarily cap the number of connections preconnected due to new
   // incoming connections. The preconnect ratio is capped at 3, so in steady
   // state, no more than 3 connections should be preconnected. If hosts go
@@ -103,16 +104,19 @@ void ConnPoolImplBase::tryCreateNewConnections() {
   // many connections are desired when the host becomes healthy again, but
   // overwhelming it with connections is not desirable.
   for (int i = 0; i < 3; ++i) {
-    if (!tryCreateNewConnection()) {
-      return;
+    result = tryCreateNewConnection();
+    if (result != ConnectionResult::CreatedNewConnection) {
+      break;
     }
   }
+  return result;
 }
 
-bool ConnPoolImplBase::tryCreateNewConnection(float global_preconnect_ratio) {
+ConnPoolImplBase::ConnectionResult
+ConnPoolImplBase::tryCreateNewConnection(float global_preconnect_ratio) {
   // There are already enough CONNECTING connections for the number of queued streams.
   if (!shouldCreateNewConnection(global_preconnect_ratio)) {
-    return false;
+    return ConnectionResult::ShouldNotConnect;
   }
 
   const bool can_create_connection =
@@ -135,8 +139,12 @@ bool ConnPoolImplBase::tryCreateNewConnection(float global_preconnect_ratio) {
     state_.incrConnectingStreamCapacity(client->effectiveConcurrentStreamLimit());
     connecting_stream_capacity_ += client->effectiveConcurrentStreamLimit();
     LinkedList::moveIntoList(std::move(client), owningList(client->state_));
+    return can_create_connection ? ConnectionResult::CreatedNewConnection
+                                 : ConnectionResult::CreatedButRateLimited;
+  } else {
+    ENVOY_LOG(trace, "not creating a new connection: connection constrained");
+    return ConnectionResult::NoConnectionRateLimited;
   }
-  return can_create_connection;
 }
 
 void ConnPoolImplBase::attachStreamToClient(Envoy::ConnectionPool::ActiveClient& client,
@@ -218,10 +226,18 @@ ConnectionPool::Cancellable* ConnPoolImplBase::newStream(AttachContext& context)
 
   if (host_->cluster().resourceManager(priority_).pendingRequests().canCreate()) {
     ConnectionPool::Cancellable* pending = newPendingStream(context);
+    ENVOY_LOG(debug, "trying to create new connection");
+
+    auto old_capacity = connecting_stream_capacity_;
     // This must come after newPendingStream() because this function uses the
     // length of pending_streams_ to determine if a new connection is needed.
-    tryCreateNewConnections();
-
+    const ConnectionResult result = tryCreateNewConnections();
+    // If there is not enough connecting capacity, the only reason to not
+    // increase capacity is if the connection limits are exceeded.
+    ENVOY_BUG(pending_streams_.size() <= connecting_stream_capacity_ ||
+                  connecting_stream_capacity_ > old_capacity ||
+                  result == ConnectionResult::NoConnectionRateLimited,
+              fmt::format("Failed to create expected connection: {}", *this));
     return pending;
   } else {
     ENVOY_LOG(debug, "max pending streams overflow");
@@ -233,7 +249,7 @@ ConnectionPool::Cancellable* ConnPoolImplBase::newStream(AttachContext& context)
 }
 
 bool ConnPoolImplBase::maybePreconnect(float global_preconnect_ratio) {
-  return tryCreateNewConnection(global_preconnect_ratio);
+  return tryCreateNewConnection(global_preconnect_ratio) == ConnectionResult::CreatedNewConnection;
 }
 
 void ConnPoolImplBase::scheduleOnUpstreamReady() {
diff --git a/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.h b/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.h
index 38730c238e01c..ac8da17e980a9 100644
--- a/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.h
+++ b/source/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base.h
@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@
 #include "envoy/stats/timespan.h"
 #include "envoy/upstream/cluster_manager.h"
 
+#include "common/common/dump_state_utils.h"
 #include "common/common/linked_object.h"
 
 #include "absl/strings/string_view.h"
@@ -192,18 +193,38 @@ class ConnPoolImplBase : protected Logger::Loggable<Logger::Id::pool> {
   }
   bool hasPendingStreams() const { return !pending_streams_.empty(); }
 
+  void dumpState(std::ostream& os, int indent_level = 0) const {
+    const char* spaces = spacesForLevel(indent_level);
+    os << spaces << "ConnPoolImplBase " << this << DUMP_MEMBER(ready_clients_.size())
+       << DUMP_MEMBER(busy_clients_.size()) << DUMP_MEMBER(connecting_clients_.size())
+       << DUMP_MEMBER(connecting_stream_capacity_) << DUMP_MEMBER(num_active_streams_);
+  }
+
+  friend std::ostream& operator<<(std::ostream& os, const ConnPoolImplBase& s) {
+    s.dumpState(os);
+    return os;
+  }
+
 protected:
   // Creates up to 3 connections, based on the preconnect ratio.
   virtual void onConnected(Envoy::ConnectionPool::ActiveClient&) {}
 
+  enum class ConnectionResult {
+    CreatedNewConnection,
+    ShouldNotConnect,
+    NoConnectionRateLimited,
+    CreatedButRateLimited,
+  };
+
   // Creates up to 3 connections, based on the preconnect ratio.
-  void tryCreateNewConnections();
+  // Returns the ConnectionResult of the last attempt.
+  ConnectionResult tryCreateNewConnections();
 
   // Creates a new connection if there is sufficient demand, it is allowed by resourceManager, or
   // to avoid starving this pool.
   // Demand is determined either by perUpstreamPreconnectRatio() or global_preconnect_ratio
   // if this is called by maybePreconnect()
-  bool tryCreateNewConnection(float global_preconnect_ratio = 0);
+  ConnectionResult tryCreateNewConnection(float global_preconnect_ratio = 0);
 
   // A helper function which determines if a canceled pending connection should
   // be closed as excess or not.
diff --git a/test/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base_test.cc b/test/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base_test.cc
index d9981c7ad7bad..7e4693cacf259 100644
--- a/test/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base_test.cc
+++ b/test/common/conn_pool/conn_pool_base_test.cc
@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ namespace Envoy {
 namespace ConnectionPool {
 
 using testing::AnyNumber;
+using testing::HasSubstr;
 using testing::Invoke;
 using testing::InvokeWithoutArgs;
 using testing::Return;
@@ -90,6 +91,15 @@ class ConnPoolImplBaseTest : public testing::Test {
   std::vector<ActiveClient*> clients_;
 };
 
+TEST_F(ConnPoolImplBaseTest, DumpState) {
+  std::stringstream out;
+  pool_.dumpState(out, 0);
+  std::string state = out.str();
+  EXPECT_THAT(state, HasSubstr("ready_clients_.size(): 0, busy_clients_.size(): 0, "
+                               "connecting_clients_.size(): 0, connecting_stream_capacity_: 0, "
+                               "num_active_streams_: 0"));
+}
+
 TEST_F(ConnPoolImplBaseTest, BasicPreconnect) {
   // Create more than one connection per new stream.
   ON_CALL(*cluster_, perUpstreamPreconnectRatio).WillByDefault(Return(1.5));