pwh-analysis-paper.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "from autogluon.tabular import TabularPredictor\n",
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_percentage_error, mean_absolute_error\n",
    "from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n",
    "import matplotlib.pylab as plt\n",
    "import seaborn as sns\n",
    "\n",
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'svg'\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "plt.style.use('ggplot')\n",
    "plt.rc('font', size=8)\n",
    "pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "symbols = ('x','.','o','v')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def load_data_orig(fname='pwh_data_orig.csv'):\n",
    "    return pd.read_csv(fname,\n",
    "                    parse_dates=[\"egain_installation\"])\n",
    "\n",
    "def load_data_with_predictions(fname='building_data_prediction_ag_13mins.csv', covid_years=True):\n",
    "    \n",
    "    df = load_data_orig()\n",
    "    \n",
    "    results_df = pd.read_csv(fname)\n",
    "\n",
    "    \n",
    "    results_df = pd.merge(df,results_df[['OID','year','autogluon_prediction']],\n",
    "            how='left',left_on=['OID','year'],right_on=['OID','year'])\n",
    "\n",
    "    # exclude outliers with heating turned off\n",
    "    results_df['energy_per_sqm'] = (results_df['kWh'] * results_df['KF'])/results_df['area']\n",
    "    results_df = results_df[results_df['energy_per_sqm'] > 10]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # climate correct consumption before computing eco scores\n",
    "    results_df['energy_per_sqm'] = (results_df['kWh'] * results_df['KF'])/results_df['area']\n",
    "    \n",
    "    # translate category names\n",
    "    results_df['kategorie'] = results_df['kategorie'].replace({'OSZ':'School','FW':'Fire Dept.','PZ':'Police','Kultur':'Culture'})\n",
    "    # drop unneccessary columns\n",
    "    results_df = results_df.drop(['flaeche','bbsr_unbereinigt','hzg_kWh','ww_kWh','verbrauch_kWh','f_flaeche'],axis=1)\n",
    "\n",
    "    if not covid_years:\n",
    "        results_df = results_df[results_df['year'].isin([2020,2021])==False]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    results_df['prediction_bbsr'] = results_df['f_ANGF'] * results_df['area'] * (results_df['TEK_HZG'] + results_df['TEK_HZG'])\n",
    "\n",
    "    groups = results_df.groupby(['has_egain','kategorie']).agg({'energy_per_sqm':'mean'})\n",
    "    eco_scores = (groups.unstack().loc[True,:] / groups.unstack().loc[False,:]).unstack().T\n",
    "\n",
    "    for egain, category in groups.index:\n",
    "        idx = (results_df['has_egain'] == egain) & (results_df['kategorie'] == category)\n",
    "        results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_a'] = results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr'] * eco_scores.loc[category,'energy_per_sqm']\n",
    "        results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_o'] =  groups.loc[(egain, category),'energy_per_sqm'] * results_df['area'] \n",
    "\n",
    "    results_df['autogluon_prediction'] = results_df['autogluon_prediction'] * results_df['KF']\n",
    "    results_df['prediction_bbsr_a'] = results_df['prediction_bbsr_a'] # no KF correction, as the predictions are corrected already * results_df['KF']\n",
    "    results_df['prediction_bbsr_o'] = results_df['prediction_bbsr_o'] # * results_df['KF']\n",
    "    \n",
    "\n",
    "    return results_df\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>area</th>\n",
       "      <th>kWh</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>OID</th>\n",
       "      <th>objektname</th>\n",
       "      <th>plz</th>\n",
       "      <th>energietraeger</th>\n",
       "      <th>kategorie</th>\n",
       "      <th>f_ANGF</th>\n",
       "      <th>TEK_HZG</th>\n",
       "      <th>TEK_WW</th>\n",
       "      <th>egain_installation</th>\n",
       "      <th>TM</th>\n",
       "      <th>SO</th>\n",
       "      <th>NM</th>\n",
       "      <th>FM</th>\n",
       "      <th>RFM</th>\n",
       "      <th>KF</th>\n",
       "      <th>kWh_bereinigt</th>\n",
       "      <th>egain_year</th>\n",
       "      <th>has_egain</th>\n",
       "      <th>remove</th>\n",
       "      <th>MWh/a</th>\n",
       "      <th>autogluon_prediction</th>\n",
       "      <th>energy_per_sqm</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_bbsr</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_bbsr_a</th>\n",
       "      <th>prediction_bbsr_o</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>7700.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>861376.140000</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021</td>\n",
       "      <td>217601</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Marktstraße 2-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>10317</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.931459</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.034553</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.098236</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.750407</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.978943</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.080375</td>\n",
       "      <td>930609.401010</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.930609</td>\n",
       "      <td>815234.428705</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.858364</td>\n",
       "      <td>707182.031552</td>\n",
       "      <td>771735.054728</td>\n",
       "      <td>793494.429752</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>6765.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>751964.125695</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021</td>\n",
       "      <td>218946</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Ostpreußendamm 40</td>\n",
       "      <td>12207</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.950128</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018-09-23</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.034553</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.098236</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.750407</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.978943</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.080375</td>\n",
       "      <td>812403.376525</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.812403</td>\n",
       "      <td>800398.922025</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.089191</td>\n",
       "      <td>633762.898634</td>\n",
       "      <td>691614.073097</td>\n",
       "      <td>697141.534711</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>4482.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>469192.770000</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021</td>\n",
       "      <td>218968</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Pappelallee 30-31 Schule</td>\n",
       "      <td>10437</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.013073</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019-01-20</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.034553</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.098236</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.750407</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.978943</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.080375</td>\n",
       "      <td>506904.222641</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.506904</td>\n",
       "      <td>386695.446516</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.097774</td>\n",
       "      <td>447702.694220</td>\n",
       "      <td>488569.912428</td>\n",
       "      <td>461875.588850</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>1422.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>111645.030073</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021</td>\n",
       "      <td>218972</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Goltzstr. 43-44 OSZ</td>\n",
       "      <td>10781</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.221097</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018-10-02</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.034553</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.098236</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.750407</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.978943</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.080375</td>\n",
       "      <td>120618.519294</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.120619</td>\n",
       "      <td>146935.226936</td>\n",
       "      <td>84.823150</td>\n",
       "      <td>171209.026426</td>\n",
       "      <td>186837.336759</td>\n",
       "      <td>146538.841442</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>1587.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>247031.910000</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021</td>\n",
       "      <td>220065</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fw Alt-Karow 10,11 FW</td>\n",
       "      <td>13125</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fire Dept.</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.198911</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2020-03-02</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.034553</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.098236</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.750407</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.978943</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.080375</td>\n",
       "      <td>266887.143862</td>\n",
       "      <td>2020</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.266887</td>\n",
       "      <td>270397.509696</td>\n",
       "      <td>168.170853</td>\n",
       "      <td>193311.470173</td>\n",
       "      <td>154444.300508</td>\n",
       "      <td>220255.367271</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>603</th>\n",
       "      <td>1395.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>141089.362518</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>232587</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Niederwallstr. 6,7 Vorderhaus</td>\n",
       "      <td>10117</td>\n",
       "      <td>fernwaerme</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.225025</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2020-02-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.644141</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.818824</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.870916</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.791793</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.130000</td>\n",
       "      <td>159430.979645</td>\n",
       "      <td>2020</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.159431</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>114.287441</td>\n",
       "      <td>168498.515785</td>\n",
       "      <td>183879.405159</td>\n",
       "      <td>131731.717590</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>605</th>\n",
       "      <td>3694.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>198308.392617</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>222057</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fw Götelstraße 112</td>\n",
       "      <td>13595</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fire Dept.</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.044616</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019-05-27</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.644141</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.818824</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.870916</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.791793</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.130000</td>\n",
       "      <td>224088.483657</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.224088</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.662827</td>\n",
       "      <td>392055.186657</td>\n",
       "      <td>313228.640854</td>\n",
       "      <td>641700.240849</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>606</th>\n",
       "      <td>2812.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>461255.227752</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>222065</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fw Heinsestraße 24</td>\n",
       "      <td>13467</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fire Dept.</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.091410</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.8</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018-06-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.644141</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.818824</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.870916</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.791793</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.130000</td>\n",
       "      <td>521218.407360</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.521218</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>185.355052</td>\n",
       "      <td>311814.922408</td>\n",
       "      <td>249121.469803</td>\n",
       "      <td>488484.319780</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>609</th>\n",
       "      <td>3500.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>281894.343259</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>222829</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Erbeskopfweg 6-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>13158</td>\n",
       "      <td>erdgas</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.053653</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.644141</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.818824</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.870916</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.791793</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.130000</td>\n",
       "      <td>318540.607883</td>\n",
       "      <td>2018</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.318541</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>91.011602</td>\n",
       "      <td>363615.508303</td>\n",
       "      <td>396807.076085</td>\n",
       "      <td>330509.685710</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>610</th>\n",
       "      <td>2190.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>66377.051082</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>226835</td>\n",
       "      <td>OSZ Fritz-Lesch-Str.  35 - Haus 1 Internat</td>\n",
       "      <td>13053</td>\n",
       "      <td>fernwaerme</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.136768</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.3</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>2020-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.644141</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.818824</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.870916</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.791793</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.130000</td>\n",
       "      <td>75006.067723</td>\n",
       "      <td>2020</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.075006</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.249346</td>\n",
       "      <td>245466.795802</td>\n",
       "      <td>267873.507302</td>\n",
       "      <td>206804.631916</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>599 rows × 28 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       area            kWh  year     OID  \\\n",
       "0    7700.0  861376.140000  2021  217601   \n",
       "1    6765.0  751964.125695  2021  218946   \n",
       "2    4482.0  469192.770000  2021  218968   \n",
       "3    1422.0  111645.030073  2021  218972   \n",
       "4    1587.0  247031.910000  2021  220065   \n",
       "..      ...            ...   ...     ...   \n",
       "603  1395.0  141089.362518  2015  232587   \n",
       "605  3694.0  198308.392617  2015  222057   \n",
       "606  2812.0  461255.227752  2015  222065   \n",
       "609  3500.0  281894.343259  2015  222829   \n",
       "610  2190.0   66377.051082  2015  226835   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                     objektname    plz energietraeger  \\\n",
       "0                           OSZ Marktstraße 2-3  10317         erdgas   \n",
       "1                         OSZ Ostpreußendamm 40  12207         erdgas   \n",
       "2                  OSZ Pappelallee 30-31 Schule  10437         erdgas   \n",
       "3                       OSZ Goltzstr. 43-44 OSZ  10781         erdgas   \n",
       "4                         Fw Alt-Karow 10,11 FW  13125         erdgas   \n",
       "..                                          ...    ...            ...   \n",
       "603           OSZ Niederwallstr. 6,7 Vorderhaus  10117     fernwaerme   \n",
       "605                          Fw Götelstraße 112  13595         erdgas   \n",
       "606                          Fw Heinsestraße 24  13467         erdgas   \n",
       "609                       OSZ Erbeskopfweg 6-10  13158         erdgas   \n",
       "610  OSZ Fritz-Lesch-Str.  35 - Haus 1 Internat  13053     fernwaerme   \n",
       "\n",
       "      kategorie    f_ANGF  TEK_HZG  TEK_WW egain_installation        TM  \\\n",
       "0        School  0.931459     49.3    22.4         2018-01-01  6.034553   \n",
       "1        School  0.950128     49.3    22.4         2018-09-23  6.034553   \n",
       "2        School  1.013073     49.3    22.4         2019-01-20  6.034553   \n",
       "3        School  1.221097     49.3    22.4         2018-10-02  6.034553   \n",
       "4    Fire Dept.  1.198911     50.8     7.1         2020-03-02  6.034553   \n",
       "..          ...       ...      ...     ...                ...       ...   \n",
       "603      School  1.225025     49.3    22.4         2020-02-01  7.644141   \n",
       "605  Fire Dept.  1.044616     50.8     7.1         2019-05-27  7.644141   \n",
       "606  Fire Dept.  1.091410     50.8     7.1         2018-06-01  7.644141   \n",
       "609      School  1.053653     49.3    22.4         2018-01-01  7.644141   \n",
       "610      School  1.136768     49.3    22.4         2020-01-01  7.644141   \n",
       "\n",
       "           SO   NM        FM        RFM        KF  kWh_bereinigt  egain_year  \\\n",
       "0    3.098236  0.0  3.750407  76.978943  1.080375  930609.401010        2018   \n",
       "1    3.098236  0.0  3.750407  76.978943  1.080375  812403.376525        2019   \n",
       "2    3.098236  0.0  3.750407  76.978943  1.080375  506904.222641        2019   \n",
       "3    3.098236  0.0  3.750407  76.978943  1.080375  120618.519294        2019   \n",
       "4    3.098236  0.0  3.750407  76.978943  1.080375  266887.143862        2020   \n",
       "..        ...  ...       ...        ...       ...            ...         ...   \n",
       "603  3.818824  0.0  3.870916  76.791793  1.130000  159430.979645        2020   \n",
       "605  3.818824  0.0  3.870916  76.791793  1.130000  224088.483657        2019   \n",
       "606  3.818824  0.0  3.870916  76.791793  1.130000  521218.407360        2018   \n",
       "609  3.818824  0.0  3.870916  76.791793  1.130000  318540.607883        2018   \n",
       "610  3.818824  0.0  3.870916  76.791793  1.130000   75006.067723        2020   \n",
       "\n",
       "     has_egain  remove     MWh/a  autogluon_prediction  energy_per_sqm  \\\n",
       "0         True   False  0.930609         815234.428705      120.858364   \n",
       "1         True   False  0.812403         800398.922025      120.089191   \n",
       "2         True   False  0.506904         386695.446516      113.097774   \n",
       "3         True   False  0.120619         146935.226936       84.823150   \n",
       "4         True   False  0.266887         270397.509696      168.170853   \n",
       "..         ...     ...       ...                   ...             ...   \n",
       "603      False   False  0.159431                   NaN      114.287441   \n",
       "605      False   False  0.224088                   NaN       60.662827   \n",
       "606      False   False  0.521218                   NaN      185.355052   \n",
       "609      False   False  0.318541                   NaN       91.011602   \n",
       "610      False   False  0.075006                   NaN       34.249346   \n",
       "\n",
       "     prediction_bbsr  prediction_bbsr_a  prediction_bbsr_o  \n",
       "0      707182.031552      771735.054728      793494.429752  \n",
       "1      633762.898634      691614.073097      697141.534711  \n",
       "2      447702.694220      488569.912428      461875.588850  \n",
       "3      171209.026426      186837.336759      146538.841442  \n",
       "4      193311.470173      154444.300508      220255.367271  \n",
       "..               ...                ...                ...  \n",
       "603    168498.515785      183879.405159      131731.717590  \n",
       "605    392055.186657      313228.640854      641700.240849  \n",
       "606    311814.922408      249121.469803      488484.319780  \n",
       "609    363615.508303      396807.076085      330509.685710  \n",
       "610    245466.795802      267873.507302      206804.631916  \n",
       "\n",
       "[599 rows x 28 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df = load_data_with_predictions()\n",
    "df"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Data and Features\n",
    "\n",
    "The data frame contains for a number of public buildings (unique ids are in column ``OID``) the energy consumption (`kWh`) per year for heating and warm water. \n",
    "\n",
    "There are a number of building features, such as area, building type (also pseudonymized), as well as a number of features that characterise the year, such as the number of sun hours. \n",
    "\n",
    "The column ``verbrauch_kWh`` contains the predicted energy consumption computed with a simple but [effective model provided by the BBSR](https://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/veroeffentlichungen/bbsr-online/2019/bbsr-online-20-2019.html). \n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Predict Building Consumption with e-gain\n",
    "\n",
    "The goal is to predict the energy savings for each building after installing a system for weather guided heating control. The system installed is called ``e-gain``. \n",
    "\n",
    "We can use the autoML package ``autogluon`` for a simple prototype. "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "\n",
    "import warnings\n",
    "warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\")\n",
    "\n",
    "if False:\n",
    "    label='kWh'\n",
    "    features=['OID', \n",
    "              'energietraeger',\n",
    "              'area',\n",
    "              'kWh',\n",
    "              'kategorie',\n",
    "              'year',\n",
    "              'TM',\n",
    "              'SO',\n",
    "              'NM',\n",
    "              'FM',\n",
    "              'RFM'\n",
    "             ]\n",
    "\n",
    "    results = []\n",
    "\n",
    "    for building in df['OID'].unique():\n",
    "\n",
    "        train_df = df[(df['OID'] != building) | ((df['OID'] == building) & (df['has_egain'] == False))]\n",
    "        test_df = df[(df['OID'] == building) & (df['has_egain'] == True)]\n",
    "        if len(test_df) > 0:\n",
    "            pred = TabularPredictor(label=label,\n",
    "                             problem_type='regression',\n",
    "                             verbosity=0)\\\n",
    "                              .fit(train_data=train_df[features],\n",
    "                                                        verbosity=0, time_limit=300,\n",
    "                                      presets='best_quality')\n",
    "            new_df = test_df.copy()\n",
    "            new_df['autogluon_prediction'] = pred.predict(test_df).copy()\n",
    "            results.append(new_df)\n",
    "            print(new_df)\n",
    "\n",
    "    results_df = pd.concat(results)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "    mape_ag = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh'],results_df['autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "    mape_din = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh'],results_df['prediction_bbsr_a'])\n",
    "    mape_bbsr = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh'],results_df['prediction_bbsr_o'])\n",
    "\n",
    "    print(f'MAE autogluon {mape_ag:0.2f}, MAPE DIN {mape_din:0.2f}, MAPE bbsr-cv {mape_bbsr:0.2f}')\n",
    "\n",
    "    mape_ag_kf = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'],results_df['autogluon_prediction'] * results_df['KF'])\n",
    "    mape_din_kf = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'],results_df['prediction_bbsr_a'] * results_df['KF'])\n",
    "    mape_bbsr_kf = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'],results_df['prediction_bbsr_o'] * results_df['KF'])\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "    print(f'KF: MAE autogluon {mape_ag_kf:0.2f}, MAPE DIN {mape_din_kf:0.2f}, MAPE bbsr-cv {mape_bbsr_kf:0.2f}')\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "    pd.merge(df.drop('autogluon_prediction', axis=1),results_df[['OID','year','autogluon_prediction']],\n",
    "            how='left',left_on=['OID','year'],right_on=['OID','year']).to_csv('building_data_prediction_new_.csv',index=False)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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    "df = load_data_with_predictions()\n",
    "\n",
    "energy_savings = []\n",
    "for building_id in df['OID'].unique():\n",
    "    if len(df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) & (df['has_egain']==False),'kWh_bereinigt']) > 0:\n",
    "        consumption_with_egain = df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) \n",
    "                                    & (df['has_egain']==True),'kWh_bereinigt'].median()\n",
    "        consumption_without_egain = df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) \n",
    "                                    & (df['has_egain']==False),'kWh_bereinigt'].median()\n",
    "        predicted_consumption_with_egain_ag = df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) \n",
    "                                    & (df['has_egain']==True),'autogluon_prediction'].median()\n",
    "        predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_a = df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) \n",
    "                                    & (df['has_egain']==True),'prediction_bbsr_a'].median()\n",
    "        predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_o = df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) \n",
    "                                    & (df['has_egain']==True),'prediction_bbsr_o'].median()\n",
    "        energy_savings.append(\n",
    "            {'OID':building_id,\n",
    "             'category':df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id),'kategorie'].values[0],\n",
    "             'consumption_with_egain': consumption_with_egain,\n",
    "             'consumption_without_egain': consumption_without_egain,\n",
    "             'predicted_consumption_with_egain_ag': predicted_consumption_with_egain_ag,\n",
    "             'predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_a': predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_a,\n",
    "             'predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_o': predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_o\n",
    "            }\n",
    "        )\n",
    "df_savings = pd.DataFrame(energy_savings)\n",
    "df_savings = df_savings.dropna(subset=['consumption_with_egain'])\n",
    "df_savings['true_saving'] = 100 - 100 * df_savings['consumption_with_egain'] / df_savings['consumption_without_egain']\n",
    "df_savings['predicted_saving_ag'] = 100 - 100 * df_savings['predicted_consumption_with_egain_ag'] / df_savings['consumption_without_egain']\n",
    "df_savings['predicted_saving_bbsr_a'] = 100 - 100 * df_savings['predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_a'] / df_savings['consumption_without_egain']\n",
    "df_savings['predicted_saving_bbsr_o'] = 100 - 100 * df_savings['predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_o'] / df_savings['consumption_without_egain']\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))\n",
    "# lim = 2\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,3,1)\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, df_savings['category'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = df_savings['category'] == cat\n",
    "    plt.plot(df_savings.loc[idx,'true_saving'], df_savings.loc[idx,'predicted_saving_bbsr_a'],sym)\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "\n",
    "# plt.plot(df_savings.loc[idx, 'true_saving'], df_savings.loc[:, 'predicted_saving_bbsr_a'],sym)\n",
    "# plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.plot([-50,100],[-50,100],'k-')\n",
    "plt.ylim([-150,70])\n",
    "plt.xlim([-30,70])\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('True Energy Saving (%)')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Predicted Saving BBSR (%)')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,3,2)\n",
    "# plt.plot(df_savings['true_saving'],df_savings['predicted_saving_bbsr_o'],'.')\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, df_savings['category'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = df_savings['category'] == cat\n",
    "    plt.plot(df_savings.loc[idx,'true_saving'], df_savings.loc[idx,'predicted_saving_bbsr_o'],sym)\n",
    "\n",
    "# lim = 1.9e6\n",
    "plt.plot([-50,70],[-50,70],'k-')\n",
    "plt.ylim([-150,70])\n",
    "plt.xlim([-30,70])\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('True Energy Saving (%)')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Predicted Saving BBSR New(%)')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,3,3)\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, df_savings['category'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = df_savings['category'] == cat\n",
    "    plt.plot(df_savings.loc[idx,'true_saving'], df_savings.loc[idx,'predicted_saving_ag'],sym)\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.plot([-50,100],[-50,100],'k-')\n",
    "plt.ylim([-150,70])\n",
    "plt.xlim([-30,70])\n",
    "# plt.plot(df_savings['true_saving'],df_savings['predicted_saving_ag'],'.')\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "# lim = 1.9e6\n",
    "plt.legend(df_savings['category'].unique())\n",
    "plt.xlabel('True Energy Saving (%)')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Predicted Saving AutoGluon (%)')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.tight_layout()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Saving prediction errors per category\n",
      "\n",
      "\\begin{tabular}{lrrr}\n",
      "\\toprule\n",
      "{} &  BBSR-O &  BBSR-A &  AutoML \\\\\n",
      "category   &         &         &         \\\\\n",
      "\\midrule\n",
      "School     &      45 &      52 &      14 \\\\\n",
      "Fire Dept. &      24 &      28 &      22 \\\\\n",
      "Police     &      30 &      32 &      12 \\\\\n",
      "Culture    &     108 &      70 &      29 \\\\\n",
      "Mean       &      41 &      40 &      19 \\\\\n",
      "\\bottomrule\n",
      "\\end{tabular}\n",
      "\n",
      "Savings per category\n",
      "\n",
      "\\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}\n",
      "\\toprule\n",
      "{} &  predicted\\_saving\\_bbsr\\_a &  predicted\\_saving\\_bbsr\\_o &  predicted\\_saving\\_ag &  true\\_saving \\\\\n",
      "category   &                          &                          &                      &              \\\\\n",
      "\\midrule\n",
      "Culture    &               -50.576410 &               -76.087143 &             6.336564 &    21.785115 \\\\\n",
      "Fire Dept. &                49.195560 &                22.387667 &             5.954486 &    14.440102 \\\\\n",
      "Police     &                 9.839778 &                 3.602667 &             2.891458 &     9.220615 \\\\\n",
      "School     &               -23.798271 &               -15.783010 &            -1.780518 &     5.376046 \\\\\n",
      "\\bottomrule\n",
      "\\end{tabular}\n",
      "\n"
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    "mae_percent_per_category = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, df_savings['category'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = df_savings['category'] == cat\n",
    "    errors_bbsr_o = abs(df_savings.loc[idx,'true_saving'] - df_savings.loc[idx,'predicted_saving_bbsr_o'])\n",
    "    errors_bbsr_a = abs(df_savings.loc[idx,'true_saving'] - df_savings.loc[idx,'predicted_saving_bbsr_a'])\n",
    "    errors_ag = abs(df_savings.loc[idx,'true_saving'] - df_savings.loc[idx,'predicted_saving_ag'])\n",
    "    plt.plot(errors_bbsr_o, errors_ag, sym)\n",
    "    mae_percent_per_category.append({\n",
    "        'BBSR-O': errors_bbsr_o.mean(),\n",
    "        'BBSR-A': errors_bbsr_a.mean(),\n",
    "        'AutoML': errors_ag.mean(),\n",
    "        'category': cat\n",
    "    })\n",
    "    \n",
    "errors_bbsr_o = abs(df_savings.loc[:,'true_saving'] - df_savings.loc[:,'predicted_saving_bbsr_o'])\n",
    "errors_bbsr_a = abs(df_savings.loc[:,'true_saving'] - df_savings.loc[:,'predicted_saving_bbsr_a'])\n",
    "errors_ag = abs(df_savings.loc[:,'true_saving'] - df_savings.loc[:,'predicted_saving_ag'])\n",
    "\n",
    "mae_percent_per_category.append({\n",
    "    'BBSR-O': errors_bbsr_o.mean(),\n",
    "    'BBSR-A': errors_bbsr_a.mean(),\n",
    "    'AutoML': errors_ag.mean(),\n",
    "    'category': 'Mean'\n",
    "})\n",
    "\n",
    "    \n",
    "lim = 165\n",
    "plt.plot([-10,lim],[-10,lim],'k-')\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.ylim([-10,lim])\n",
    "plt.xlim([-10,lim])\n",
    "# plt.plot(df_savings['true_saving'],df_savings['predicted_saving_ag'],'.')\n",
    "\n",
    "# lim = 1.9e6\n",
    "plt.legend(df_savings['category'].unique())\n",
    "plt.title('Absolute Error Energy Saving Prediction (in %)')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('BBSR-O')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('AutoML')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.savefig('energy_savings_error.pdf')\n",
    "\n",
    "print('Saving prediction errors per category\\n')\n",
    "print(pd.DataFrame(mae_percent_per_category)[['category', 'BBSR-O', 'BBSR-A', 'AutoML']].set_index('category').astype(int).to_latex())\n",
    "\n",
    "savings_per_category = df_savings.loc[:,['category',\n",
    "          'predicted_saving_bbsr_a','predicted_saving_bbsr_o',\n",
    "                  'predicted_saving_ag',\n",
    "                   'true_saving'\n",
    "                   ]].groupby('category').agg('median')\n",
    "print('Savings per category\\n')\n",
    "print(savings_per_category.to_latex())"
   ]
  },
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   "metadata": {},
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       "category                                                       \n",
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       "Police                 2.891458     9.220615  \n",
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     "metadata": {},
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   ],
   "source": [
    "df = load_data_with_predictions(covid_years=True)\n",
    "\n",
    "aa = plt.figure(figsize=(6,6))\n",
    "\n",
    "ax = plt.subplot(2,2,1)\n",
    "tmp_boxplot_df = df[['kategorie','OID']].drop_duplicates()['kategorie'].value_counts()\n",
    "tmp_boxplot_df[['Culture','Fire Dept.','Police','School']].plot.bar(ax=ax,rot=0)\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Building Category')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Count')\n",
    "plt.title('(A) Buildings per Category')\n",
    "\n",
    "ax = plt.subplot(2,2,2)\n",
    "axs = df[['MWh/a','kategorie']].boxplot(by='kategorie',ax=ax)\n",
    "axs.set_ylim([0,1.4])\n",
    "axs.set_xlabel('')\n",
    "axs.set_title('(B) Consumption')\n",
    "axs.set_ylabel('GWh/a')\n",
    "axs.set_xlabel('Building Category')\n",
    "# ax.texts[0].set_text('')\n",
    "\n",
    "ax = plt.subplot(2,2,3)\n",
    "axs = df[['area','kategorie']].boxplot(by='kategorie', ax=ax)\n",
    "axs.set_ylim([0,13e3])\n",
    "# axs.set_xlabel('')\n",
    "axs.set_title('(C) Area')\n",
    "axs.set_ylabel('$m^2$')\n",
    "axs.set_xlabel('Building Category')\n",
    "\n",
    "ax = plt.subplot(2,2,4)\n",
    "axs = df_savings.loc[:,['category', 'true_saving']].boxplot(by='category', ax=ax)\n",
    "# axs.set_ylim([0,13e3])\n",
    "# axs.set_xlabel('')\n",
    "axs.set_title('(D) Energy Saving')\n",
    "axs.set_ylabel('(%)')\n",
    "axs.set_xlabel('Building Category')\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "aa.texts[0].set_text('')\n",
    "plt.tight_layout()\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.savefig('dataset.pdf')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "      <th>OID</th>\n",
       "      <th>category</th>\n",
       "      <th>consumption_with_egain</th>\n",
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       "      <td>284986.755598</td>\n",
       "      <td>275253.185106</td>\n",
       "      <td>154444.300508</td>\n",
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       "      <th>92</th>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>93</th>\n",
       "      <td>236919</td>\n",
       "      <td>Culture</td>\n",
       "      <td>252365.224190</td>\n",
       "      <td>371661.304233</td>\n",
       "      <td>334012.943314</td>\n",
       "      <td>375778.930237</td>\n",
       "      <td>444010.762135</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.098063</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.129750</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.107897</td>\n",
       "      <td>-19.466503</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>94</th>\n",
       "      <td>221113</td>\n",
       "      <td>School</td>\n",
       "      <td>335908.290060</td>\n",
       "      <td>342951.996813</td>\n",
       "      <td>377155.030000</td>\n",
       "      <td>433843.810426</td>\n",
       "      <td>401075.366311</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.053846</td>\n",
       "      <td>-9.973126</td>\n",
       "      <td>-26.502780</td>\n",
       "      <td>-16.947961</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>95 rows × 11 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       OID    category  consumption_with_egain  consumption_without_egain  \\\n",
       "0   217601      School           897050.932905              826072.953510   \n",
       "1   218946      School           774510.871680              878568.444000   \n",
       "2   218968      School           463081.218776              432899.986680   \n",
       "3   218972      School           120618.519294              127849.696920   \n",
       "4   220065  Fire Dept.           267063.097754              284986.755598   \n",
       "..     ...         ...                     ...                        ...   \n",
       "90  222829      School           357509.758320              359868.571200   \n",
       "91  226835      School            67185.294619              107887.385336   \n",
       "92  232685  Fire Dept.           218748.422390              221637.792967   \n",
       "93  236919     Culture           252365.224190              371661.304233   \n",
       "94  221113      School           335908.290060              342951.996813   \n",
       "\n",
       "    predicted_consumption_with_egain_ag  \\\n",
       "0                         858983.923928   \n",
       "1                         839364.803222   \n",
       "2                         445471.775700   \n",
       "3                         130164.781784   \n",
       "4                         275253.185106   \n",
       "..                                  ...   \n",
       "90                        389687.181800   \n",
       "91                         97643.454748   \n",
       "92                        220942.409100   \n",
       "93                        334012.943314   \n",
       "94                        377155.030000   \n",
       "\n",
       "    predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_a  \\\n",
       "0                             771735.054728   \n",
       "1                             691614.073097   \n",
       "2                             488569.912428   \n",
       "3                             186837.336759   \n",
       "4                             154444.300508   \n",
       "..                                      ...   \n",
       "90                            396807.076085   \n",
       "91                            267873.507302   \n",
       "92                            158812.544985   \n",
       "93                            375778.930237   \n",
       "94                            433843.810426   \n",
       "\n",
       "    predicted_consumption_with_egain_bbsr_o  true_saving  predicted_saving_ag  \\\n",
       "0                             793494.429752    -8.592217            -3.984027   \n",
       "1                             697141.534711    11.843992             4.462218   \n",
       "2                             461875.588850    -6.971872            -2.904086   \n",
       "3                             146538.841442     5.655999            -1.810786   \n",
       "4                             220255.367271     6.289295             3.415447   \n",
       "..                                      ...          ...                  ...   \n",
       "90                            360679.286251     0.655465            -8.285972   \n",
       "91                            225682.181968    37.726459             9.495022   \n",
       "92                            227749.878823     1.303645             0.313748   \n",
       "93                            444010.762135    32.098063            10.129750   \n",
       "94                            401075.366311     2.053846            -9.973126   \n",
       "\n",
       "    predicted_saving_bbsr_a  predicted_saving_bbsr_o  \n",
       "0                  6.577857                 3.943783  \n",
       "1                 21.279432                20.650287  \n",
       "2                -12.859766                -6.693371  \n",
       "3                -46.138271               -14.618059  \n",
       "4                 45.806499                22.713823  \n",
       "..                      ...                      ...  \n",
       "90               -10.264443                -0.225281  \n",
       "91              -148.289924              -109.183104  \n",
       "92                28.345909                -2.757691  \n",
       "93                -1.107897               -19.466503  \n",
       "94               -26.502780               -16.947961  \n",
       "\n",
       "[95 rows x 11 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_savings"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
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   },
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       "<Figure size 1000x400 with 3 Axes>"
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     },
     "metadata": {},
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    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "results_df = load_data_with_predictions().dropna(subset=['autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "\n",
    "mae_ag = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'], results_df['autogluon_prediction']) / 1e6\n",
    "mae_din = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'], results_df['prediction_bbsr_a'])  / 1e6\n",
    "mae_din_new = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'], results_df['prediction_bbsr_o'])  / 1e6\n",
    "\n",
    "symbols = ('x','.','^','v')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.figure(figsize=(10,4))\n",
    "lim = 1.3\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,3,1)\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, results_df['kategorie'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = results_df['kategorie'] == cat\n",
    "    plt.plot(results_df.loc[idx,'MWh/a'],results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_a']/1e6,sym)\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.ylim([0,lim])\n",
    "plt.xlim([0,lim])\n",
    "plt.plot([0,lim],[0,lim],'k-')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Energy Consumption (GWh/a)')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Prediction (GWh/a)')\n",
    "plt.title(f'BBSR-A\\nMean Absolute Error {mae_din:0.3}')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,3,2)\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, results_df['kategorie'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = results_df['kategorie'] == cat\n",
    "    plt.plot(results_df.loc[idx,'MWh/a'],results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_o']/1e6,sym)\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.ylim([0,lim])\n",
    "plt.xlim([0,lim])\n",
    "plt.plot([0,lim],[0,lim],'k-')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Energy Consumption (GWh/a)')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Prediction(GWh/a)')\n",
    "plt.title(f'BBSR-O\\nMean Absolute Error {mae_din_new:0.3}')\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,3,3)\n",
    "for sym, cat in zip(symbols, results_df['kategorie'].unique()):\n",
    "    idx = results_df['kategorie'] == cat\n",
    "    plt.plot(results_df.loc[idx,'MWh/a'],results_df.loc[idx,'autogluon_prediction']/1e6,sym)\n",
    "plt.axis('square')\n",
    "plt.ylim([0,lim])\n",
    "plt.xlim([0,lim])\n",
    "plt.plot([0,lim],[0,lim],'k-')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Energy Consumption (GWh/a)')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Prediction Consumption (GWh/a)')\n",
    "plt.legend(results_df['kategorie'].unique())\n",
    "plt.title(f'AutoML\\n Mean Absolute Error {mae_ag:0.3}')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.tight_layout()\n",
    "plt.savefig('prediction_quality_comparison_scatter.pdf')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "\\begin{tabular}{lrrr}\n",
      "\\toprule\n",
      "{} &  MAE BBSR-A &  MAE BBSR-O &  MAE AutoML \\\\\n",
      "\\midrule\n",
      "School     &      156697 &      150102 &       71109 \\\\\n",
      "Fire Dept. &      156521 &      122545 &      106553 \\\\\n",
      "Police     &      106684 &      103978 &       38904 \\\\\n",
      "Culture    &      375970 &      541350 &      236521 \\\\\n",
      "Mean       &      198968 &      229494 &      113272 \\\\\n",
      "\\bottomrule\n",
      "\\end{tabular}\n",
      "\n",
      "MAE BBSR-A 170927.15, MAE BBSR-O 166741.64 MAE autogluon 99564.76\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "results_df = load_data_with_predictions(covid_years=True).dropna(subset=['autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "# results_df = load_data_with_predictions('building_data_prediction.csv').dropna(subset=['autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "# results_df = load_data_with_predictions('building_data_prediction_new-ag-5mins.csv').dropna(subset=['autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "errors = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for cat in results_df['kategorie'].unique():\n",
    "    idx = results_df['kategorie']==cat\n",
    "    mape_ag = mean_absolute_percentage_error(results_df.loc[idx,'kWh_bereinigt'], results_df.loc[idx,'autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "    mape_din = mean_absolute_percentage_error(results_df.loc[idx,'kWh_bereinigt'], results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_a'])\n",
    "    mape_din_new = mean_absolute_percentage_error(results_df.loc[idx,'kWh_bereinigt'], results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_o'])\n",
    "    mae_ag = mean_absolute_error(results_df.loc[idx,'kWh_bereinigt'], results_df.loc[idx,'autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "    mae_din = mean_absolute_error(results_df.loc[idx,'kWh_bereinigt'], results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_a'])\n",
    "    mae_din_new = mean_absolute_error(results_df.loc[idx,'kWh_bereinigt'], results_df.loc[idx,'prediction_bbsr_o'])\n",
    "\n",
    "    errors.append([int(mae_din), int(mae_din_new), int(mae_ag), np.round(mape_din,2), np.round(mape_din_new,2), np.round(mape_ag,2)])\n",
    "\n",
    "errors_df = pd.DataFrame(errors,index=results_df['kategorie'].unique(),columns=['MAE BBSR-A', 'MAE BBSR-O', 'MAE AutoML', 'MAPE BBSR-A', 'MAPE BBSR-O', 'MAPE AutoML'])\n",
    "errors_df.loc['Mean',:] = errors_df.mean(axis=0).round(decimals=0).values\n",
    "print(errors_df[['MAE BBSR-A', 'MAE BBSR-O', 'MAE AutoML']].astype(int).to_latex())\n",
    "\n",
    "mae_ag = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'], results_df['autogluon_prediction'])\n",
    "mae_bbsr_a = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'], results_df['prediction_bbsr_a'])\n",
    "mae_bbsr_o = mean_absolute_error(results_df['kWh_bereinigt'], results_df['prediction_bbsr_o'])\n",
    "print(f'MAE BBSR-A {mae_bbsr_a:0.2f}, MAE BBSR-O {mae_bbsr_o:0.2f} MAE autogluon {mae_ag:0.2f}')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Explained Variance Ratio with 1: [0.80846074]\n"
     ]
    },
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       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>KF</th>\n",
       "      <th>TM</th>\n",
       "      <th>SO</th>\n",
       "      <th>NM</th>\n",
       "      <th>FM</th>\n",
       "      <th>RFM</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>syn_min</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.072074</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.630890</td>\n",
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       "      <th>real_min</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.080375</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2.646008</td>\n",
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       "      <th>syn_max</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.207300</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.290817</td>\n",
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      "text/plain": [
       "                KF        TM        SO         NM        FM        RFM\n",
       "syn_min   1.072074  4.630890  3.359253 -11.518817  2.632787  66.735617\n",
       "real_min  1.080375  5.148837  2.646008   0.000000  3.573362  74.783045\n",
       "syn_max   1.207300  8.290817  3.528770  17.382479  5.555074  90.555631\n",
       "real_max  1.197433  7.727160  4.448068   6.393874  4.540221  83.307935"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.decomposition import PCA\n",
    "\n",
    "from shutil import rmtree\n",
    "import itertools\n",
    "\n",
    "rmtree('AutogluonModels',ignore_errors=True)\n",
    "\n",
    "n_components = 1\n",
    "n_samples = 100\n",
    "\n",
    "df = load_data_with_predictions()\n",
    "df\n",
    "\n",
    "features_building = ['OID','energietraeger', 'area', 'kategorie', 'has_egain']\n",
    "features_weather     = ['KF', 'TM', 'SO', 'NM', 'FM', 'RFM']\n",
    "features = features_building + features_weather\n",
    "target = [\"kWh\"]\n",
    "\n",
    "pca = PCA(n_components = n_components, whiten=True).fit(df[features_weather].drop_duplicates().values)\n",
    "print(f'Explained Variance Ratio with {n_components}: {pca.explained_variance_ratio_}')\n",
    "\n",
    "latents = np.linspace(-5, 5, n_samples)\n",
    "synthesized_weather = pca.inverse_transform(np.array(latents).reshape(len(latents),1))\n",
    "\n",
    "comparison_syn_real = pd.DataFrame(\n",
    "                        [\n",
    "                        synthesized_weather.min(axis=0),\n",
    "                        df[features_weather].values.min(axis=0),\n",
    "                        synthesized_weather.max(axis=0),\n",
    "                        df[features_weather].values.max(axis=0)],\n",
    "                        columns = features_weather,\n",
    "                        index = ['syn_min','real_min','syn_max','real_max'])\n",
    "comparison_syn_real"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "\tWarning: Exception caused LightGBMXT_BAG_L1 to fail during training (ImportError)... Skipping this model.\n",
      "\t\t`import lightgbm` failed. If you are using Mac OSX, Please try 'brew install libomp'. Detailed info: dlopen(/Users/felix/opt/anaconda3/envs/pwh/lib/python3.9/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so, 0x0006): Library not loaded: /usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib\n",
      "  Referenced from: <FB7AB1B4-24FD-362B-99F0-01E20F36C929> /Users/felix/opt/anaconda3/envs/pwh/lib/python3.9/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so\n",
      "  Reason: tried: '/usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/usr/local/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/usr/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file, not in dyld cache)\n",
      "\tWarning: Exception caused LightGBM_BAG_L1 to fail during training (ImportError)... Skipping this model.\n",
      "\t\t`import lightgbm` failed. If you are using Mac OSX, Please try 'brew install libomp'. Detailed info: dlopen(/Users/felix/opt/anaconda3/envs/pwh/lib/python3.9/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so, 0x0006): Library not loaded: /usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib\n",
      "  Referenced from: <FB7AB1B4-24FD-362B-99F0-01E20F36C929> /Users/felix/opt/anaconda3/envs/pwh/lib/python3.9/site-packages/lightgbm/lib_lightgbm.so\n",
      "  Reason: tried: '/usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/System/Volumes/Preboot/Cryptexes/OS/usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/usr/local/opt/libomp/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/usr/local/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file), '/usr/lib/libomp.dylib' (no such file, not in dyld cache)\n"
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      "text/plain": [
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   "source": [
    "df = load_data_with_predictions()\n",
    "\n",
    "# building_id = 217601 230717\n",
    "target = ['kWh']\n",
    "\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "plt.style.use('ggplot')\n",
    "# %config InlineBackend.figure_formats = ['svg']\n",
    "# %config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'svg'\n",
    "import matplotlib\n",
    "\n",
    "matplotlib.rcParams['lines.linewidth'] = 2\n",
    "matplotlib.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = [12,6]\n",
    "\n",
    "# for building_id in df['OID'].unique():\n",
    "building_id = 230717\n",
    "\n",
    "# let's first discard all information on this building\n",
    "train_df = df[df['OID'] != building_id]\n",
    "\n",
    "# Now let's assume we get the relevant building information from the Web UI\n",
    "idx = df['OID']==building_id\n",
    "\n",
    "# first let's extract the area\n",
    "area = df.loc[idx, 'area'].to_list()[0]\n",
    "\n",
    "# now let's extract the building type\n",
    "category = df.loc[idx, 'kategorie'].to_list()[0]\n",
    "energietraeger = df.loc[idx, 'energietraeger'].to_list()[0]\n",
    "\n",
    "# now extract the year and corresponding consumption\n",
    "years_and_kWh = df.loc[idx, ['year', 'kWh']]\n",
    "\n",
    "# let's first remove the rows that we're pretending to be user input\n",
    "train_df_db = df.loc[df['OID']!=building_id, features + target]\n",
    "train_df_db\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "# now let's rebuild the training data from user input and weather variables from our DB\n",
    "train_data_user_input = []\n",
    "for _, row in years_and_kWh.iterrows():\n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    tmp_df_weather = df.loc[df['year']==row['year'], features_weather].head(n=1).reset_index(drop=True)\n",
    "    tmp_df = pd.concat([\n",
    "                pd.Series([building_id], name='OID'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([area], name='area'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([category], name='kategorie'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([False], name='has_egain'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([energietraeger], name='energietraeger'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([row['kWh']], name='kWh'),\n",
    "                tmp_df_weather], axis=1)\n",
    "    train_data_user_input.append(\n",
    "        tmp_df\n",
    "    )\n",
    "\n",
    "train_df = pd.concat([pd.concat(train_data_user_input), train_df_db])\n",
    "train_df[features + target]\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "weather = pd.DataFrame(synthesized_weather, columns = features_weather)\n",
    "sampled_df = pd.concat([\n",
    "                pd.Series([None]*len(weather), name='kWh'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([building_id]*len(weather), name='OID'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([area]*len(weather), name='area'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([category]*len(weather), name='kategorie'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([True]*len(weather), name='has_egain'),\n",
    "                pd.Series([energietraeger]*len(weather), name='energietraeger'),\n",
    "                weather],axis=1)\n",
    "sampled_df = pd.concat([sampled_df, sampled_df],axis=0,ignore_index=True)\n",
    "sampled_df.loc[:len(weather)-1,'has_egain'] = False\n",
    "# sampled_df\n",
    "test_df = sampled_df.copy()\n",
    "\n",
    "pred = TabularPredictor(label=target[0],\n",
    "                         problem_type='regression',\n",
    "                         verbosity=0)\\\n",
    "                         .fit(train_data=train_df[features+target],\n",
    "                                                    time_limit=10,\n",
    "                              presets='best_quality')\n",
    "test_df['autogluon_prediction'] = pred.predict(test_df)\n",
    "\n",
    "rmtree('AutogluonModels')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.figure()\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.plot(\n",
    "    test_df.loc[test_df['has_egain']==False,'TM'],\n",
    "    test_df.loc[test_df['has_egain']==False,'autogluon_prediction']/1e6,'o')\n",
    "plt.plot(\n",
    "    test_df.loc[test_df['has_egain']==True,'TM'],\n",
    "    test_df.loc[test_df['has_egain']==True,'autogluon_prediction']/1e6,'o')\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "coldest = weather[weather['TM']==weather['TM'].min()]\n",
    "warmest = weather[weather['TM']==weather['TM'].max()]\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.plot(\n",
    "    [coldest['TM'], warmest['TM']], \n",
    "    [df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) &  (df['has_egain']==False),'prediction_bbsr_o'].values[0]/(1e6 * coldest['KF']),\n",
    "     df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) &  (df['has_egain']==False),'prediction_bbsr_o'].values[0]/(1e6 * warmest['KF']) \n",
    "    ],'--')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.plot(\n",
    "    [coldest['TM'], warmest['TM']], \n",
    "    [df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) &  (df['has_egain']==True),'prediction_bbsr_o'].values[0]/(1e6 * coldest['KF']),\n",
    "     df.loc[(df['OID']==building_id) &  (df['has_egain']==True),'prediction_bbsr_o'].values[0]/(1e6 * warmest['KF']) \n",
    "    ],'--')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.plot(\n",
    "    train_df.loc[train_df['OID']==building_id,'TM'],\n",
    "    train_df.loc[train_df['OID']==building_id,'kWh']/(1e6),'o')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.legend(['Prediction AutoML','Prediction AutoML Retrofit','Prediction $BBSR_O$','Prediction $BBSR_O$ Retrofit', 'train input'])\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Average Temperature / a')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('GWh/a')\n",
    "plt.title(f'category: {category}, area: {area} $m^2$')\n",
    "plt.savefig(f'synth_weather_{category}_{building_id}_{area}.pdf')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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