Assignment1.ipynb

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    "## Assignment:\n",
    "\n",
    "Deadline : 09.03.2016 Wed  18:59\n",
    "\n",
    "* Fit a polynomial of degree $K$ to all columns of the following dataset\n",
    "to predict number of vehicles in the years of $2016$,$2017$,$2018$,$2019$ and $2020$.\n",
    "\n",
    "$$\n",
    "y_i = \\sum_{k=0}^K w_k x_{i}^k + \\epsilon_i\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "* Fit an AR model to each data sequence \n",
    "$$\n",
    "y_i = w_1 y_{i-1} + \\epsilon_i\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\n",
    "Which model would you prefer? Polynomial or AR?\n",
    "\n",
    "For each model, plot the data and your model fit $f = A w^*$\n",
    "\n",
    "### Bonus: \n",
    "Use cross validation for finding the best polynomial order and describe you approach.\n",
    "\n"
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    "Your Name :"
   ]
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    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "\n",
    "import scipy as sc\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib as mpl\n",
    "import matplotlib.pylab as plt\n",
    "\n",
    "df_arac = pd.read_csv(u'data/arac.csv',sep=';')\n",
    "df_arac"
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